Select Committee on Foreign Affairs Minutes of Evidence


Examination of Witness (Questions 40-59)

23 NOVEMBER 2004

MS JANE CORBIN

  Q40 Chairman: Are you surprised that he has not been shot?

  Ms Corbin: I am not. There is another very large price on Osama bin Laden's head. There are heavy prices on a number of heads of the known leaders of al-Qaeda, and very few of them have been shot. They have nearly all been killed or captured in shoot-outs rather than as a result of insider information. It does not work like that in those areas where tribal loyalties are strong, where fear of course is an enormous factor, and in the general chaos that we have in Iraq and in the Sunni Triangle, I am not surprised.

  Q41 Sir John Stanley: I am going to ask you the big question: do you think the world is a safer or less safe place following the invasion of Iraq?

  Ms Corbin: From my observations within Iraq and in other parts of the world, I do not think it is safer in any way. I would have to, if I am honest, say that I feel that the world is a less safe place because of the fracturing of these groups, their ability to form looser and looser affiliations and to grow their network. I think that the CIA is recently on record as admitting that they are amazed at the ability of al-Qaeda to replicate. I think when I appeared before you just over a year ago I said that I believed in the first six months after 9/11 in the war in Afghanistan that al-Qaeda was severely hit, it was difficult for them to operate, but what has been extraordinary is their ability to fight back not as a single organisation, and it never was that by the way, but its ability to grow other organisations and to form affiliations. Therefore, a more diffuse network is more difficult to deal with and, consequently, I think, therefore, that the world is less safe and Iraq I feel has certainly added to the problem.

  Q42 Sir John Stanley: Can I just turn to how this grim form of terrorism is evolving. You have obviously been watching it closely, particularly in Iraq, but also elsewhere, so what is your judgment as to the degree to which al-Qaeda terrorists or determined insurgents are increasing their level of sophistication of operation, particularly combining conventional forms of terrorism with the use of suicide attacks? Do you feel that they are on a learning curve and becoming that much more difficult or not?

  Ms Corbin: I think that 9/11 proved how sophisticated an operation they could mount, so I think it is not that they have become more sophisticated, but perhaps they have found new opportunities, they have recruited new people. In Iraq, for example, in the early days of the suicide bombings, it was said that it could not possibly be Iraqis doing this, but I think we have seen that the sheer number of such attacks has grown and the sheer frequency that there can be little doubt that Iraqis, perhaps people who were once very secular, have been persuaded that this ideology of "martyrdom" is something that they can follow, so I think that is very worrying. I think we are seeing an increase, for example, in these suicide bombings, so that is one thing that worries me, and I am not one of the people who feels, as some do, that 9/11 was the last hurrah, if you like, that they are not capable of mounting such an attack or a similar kind of attack in terms of sophistication. I think it will take a long time, but they are very, very patient and they are prepared to wait for years until the right cell in the right place can come up with the right plan. Therefore, I feel that they have by no means finished, they have not been finished and they still have the capability to mount such an attack or something similar.

  Q43 Sir John Stanley: Can I just take you through some of the particular terrorist techniques which are in operation now quite clearly in Iraq. What is your judgment as to the degree of emphasis they are placing on infiltration, particularly infiltration of the Iraqi police and the Iraqi army recruits? Would you agree that some of the cold-blooded murders that we have seen clearly depended on penetrating the security of those organisations and working in conjunction with people inside who knew about lorry movements and where concentrations of the police or members of the armed forces were likely to be found?

  Ms Corbin: Yes, and I think infiltration of course has been a very effective weapon that they have used, but again I would differentiate between the more al-Qaeda-allied Islamic militants and the Ba'athist insurgents. The Ba'athist insurgents have used to great effect a lot of the military tactics that, after all, they have learnt. Many of them are thought to be former police and army officers and also have access to explosives, so they have used those techniques very successfully and in the cold-blooded murder of large numbers of Iraqi recruits to the police services and security services, so infiltration is one thing they have used very effectively. I think the other thing we have all watched with growing horror is the practice of hostage-taking and kidnapping and this certainly can be linked back as a tactic to al-Qaeda. I think we all remember the capture, kidnap and eventual horrible murder of Daniel Pearl shortly after 9/11 and before that there are other examples in Kashmir, for example, involving some British hostages way back before 9/11, so this is a technique they have used. I think they have allied it increasingly to another skill which they have become very adept at using which is the whole business of propaganda, videos, pictures on the Internet and the spread of those techniques, and that has been used to horrific effect with these beheadings which they find a way of getting on to television or the Web very quickly and that has obviously had a big effect not only on the way people in Iraq feel, but we have seen it even here with the taking of some of the British hostages, the kind of effect it has had on public opinion back here. This is tool of terrorism, this is what terrorism is, it seeks to terrify, and this is a very effective weapon that we have seen them willing to use more and more in recent months.

  Q44 Sir John Stanley: You have very acutely anticipated my next two questions which were precisely in those areas, about the use of kidnapping and the use of media manipulation. Could I just ask you on the area of media manipulation, you very well are able to give us your perspective from your particular background, but is it your judgment that the showing of these appalling scenes on television, including the beheading and murder of people, in media terms that is working to al-Qaeda's advantage or do you think this is actually showing millions of people around the world the sheer horror of these people and repelling people rather than attracting them?

  Ms Corbin: Well, I think that there are different audiences that these videos are directed at. There is the western audience and the desire there is to terrify, to spread the message of terror and I think that is very effective. I think for a very small segment of the population that al-Qaeda seeks to recruit and to attract, if you like, the angry element of young, perhaps dispossessed Muslim youth, somehow the way that these videos portray the ability of terrorists to exercise power over westerners who are often seen in that society as being the ones who exercise the controlling influence, that is quite potent with that particular small group of recruits and it is meant to be, so I think there are different messages going out to different people. Bin Laden himself does not use those kind of videos. He presents himself in a much more, if you can use the term and he would like to think certainly, statesman-like way. He gives speeches, he makes announcements things and you do not see him in these blood-thirsty, awful videos, but you see some of his fighters using these techniques, so again I think the sophisticated element is the way that different videos are made in different ways and directed at different segments of his audience. Again he appeals sometimes to the broader opinion in parts of the Middle East where there is anger at American policy, British policy and European policy in, the Israeli/Palestinian question, for example, and the skilful use made of video footage of the killing of Palestinians, for example, and that is another element they use very well in their videos, so I think different messages to different groups and some of them very effective. Yes, you are right, they are very, very off-putting and they are cruel and evil in the extreme, and to the audience that receives them in that way, the message of terror I think is very clearly taken.

  Q45 Sir John Stanley: Terrorism coupled with kidnap coupled with media exposure, do you judge that that is going to remain confined essentially to Iraq and possibly one or two neighbouring countries, possibly even Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan, or do you have any anxiety that this is a particular form of terrorist technique which might get used more widely?

  Ms Corbin: Well, I think that we have seen actually something a little more encouraging in the last few weeks and certainly when I speak to contacts in Iraq, as I do on a daily basis, the information that I have is that the awful video, which we have not seen, but some Arab stations have shown, of what happened to Margaret Hassan has actually turned public opinion in Iraq in quite a dramatic way. Now, whether that will last or not, I do not know, but people have been horrified because here was an aid worker who had given her life to Iraq. It may be that that was a video too far, but, on the other hand, we have seen of course the release in Afghanistan just today of some western hostages, so I would like to think that perhaps that is another encouraging sign that we have seen the tide turn in using this as a technique. I am afraid that these things go in waves and it may go quiet for a while now, but that does not mean that we have seen the end of hostage-taking as a purely criminal endeavour because a lot of it is about raising ransom money and this, I think, will continue, so I do not think we have seen the end of it, although, as I say, there are some encouraging signs that it has backfired, if you like, on the kidnappers.

  Q46 Sir John Stanley: Do you agree with the reports that the hostage-takers in Afghanistan, and we all hugely share your relief at the release of those three hostages, that that particular group in fact was doing it for commercial reasons rather than plain terrorism?

  Ms Corbin: I think, knowing Afghanistan and kidnap is a long and honourable tradition, or not so honourable a tradition in certain areas, it was probably for money at the end of the day.

  Q47 Sir John Stanley: I would like just to turn to Afghanistan now. What is your view as to whether we are winning the war against terrorism in Afghanistan, whether it is still stale-mated or whether we are actually losing it as of now?

  Ms Corbin: Well, I think the recent elections were very encouraging, that President Karzai received a mandate to govern that country and will now be seen to be independent. I think the parliamentary elections, which will come in April, will be perhaps even more revealing if they can be held in an atmosphere of relative calm. I think there will be the temptation for more violence there because it will be easier for people to intimidate through violence in all the different regions, so I think it remains to be seen, but I think that the security situation is not good. It is not possible to move around outside Kabul and the warlords still reign supreme. Personally, I think it is a matter of great concern that the opium production is up 400% from the year 2001 and that it may mean that some element of that production is being used to finance what remnants of al-Qaeda and the Taliban still exist in the country and over the border in Pakistan, so I think the situation is very unstable. We have done better perhaps in the War on Terror in Afghanistan than we seem to have done so far in Iraq. I think it is early days yet and I think that perhaps with the efforts to find an exit strategy in Iraq by both the British and the US Governments, which obviously are going to be key in the next year or so, perhaps the pendulum will swing and more resources and more effort will be put back into Afghanistan and into those areas particularly in the south and the east where we still believe that al-Qaeda is able to operate across those borders and where I still believe bin Laden and those around him may well be.

  Q48 Sir John Stanley: I would like to come to Europe and the United States and the degree of risk there in a moment, but let's take some of the other parts of the world. What is your judgment at the moment as to whether we are, in simplistic terms, winning or losing the battle against what can broadly be called al-Qaeda? Clearly we have had some extremely serious al-Qaeda-type terrorist attacks in Saudi, we have had serious attacks elsewhere in the Middle East and we have had another attack against an Australian target in Indonesia. Do you feel that worldwide we are losing or do you feel in fact that we are still getting on top of al-Qaeda?

  Ms Corbin: I think in some areas there have been encouraging signs. I think al-Qaeda, through the offices of Algerian militants, have tried to expand into the Sahel region, into Chad, Mauritania and northern Nigerian where there are obviously large Muslim populations and I understand that local forces, aided with specialist expertise from American forces, have been able to push back that attempted expansion. However, on the other hand, we have seen, for example, in south-east Asia and Australia difficulties in getting to grips with Jamaarh Islamia who are believed to have been behind the Bali bombing and although we have had the arrest of important operatives, amongst them Hambali who was very key in that Bali bombing planning, we have new local leaders. This goes back to what I said about al-Qaeda's ability to regenerate itself, to split, to form new groups. There is somebody called Zulkarnean, a former Afghan veteran, who, it seems, has replaced Hambali. It is almost like an alphabet soup of names in that for everyone who is taken out of circulation, you can point to another one who begins to become important within the hierarchy, so it is mixed news. There have been successes in certain parts of the world and I think in other parts and certainly in Saudi I think the problem still remains very, very acute, just as the Saudi authorities, who seem to be far more focused now on their hunt for these people, just as they arrest or kill one leader of al-Qaeda, al-Qaeda is able to announce the formation of a new group and a new leader, so I think in those areas we cannot say that we are getting on top of the problem. Al-Qaeda remains a threat and it is always looking through affiliated groups, through like-minded organisations who share the same philosophy and it is always looking for opportunities, for weaknesses in states, for difficulties that it can exploit to bring into being, and to encourage, local chapters.

  Q49 Sir John Stanley: Coming to Europe now, clearly all the European governments have been doing their utmost to put in place tougher legislation to deal with terrorism, and in the UK we have had some more announced here today. We have had the Spanish rail terrorism and clearly there are relatively high terrorist threats on any sort of western target throughout Western Europe, including of course the UK. What is your judgment as to the degree of vulnerability we have to al-Qaeda now compared to just before 9/11?

  Ms Corbin: I think we have to be vigilant because just as it is undoubtedly true that bin Laden and, if you like, al-Qaeda central is part of an old formation of al-Qaeda which has less day-to-day control and has been replaced with this new, more diffuse organisation, which even intelligence agencies tend now to characterise as new al-Qaeda rather than old al-Qaeda, we know that the hard core, if you like, old al-Qaeda is still capable of running operations long-term and I think in the case of Madrid, there is a strong feeling, and also in Turkey where the attacks were against our own consulate, that there was an element of central al-Qaeda being involved in the planning of those operations. I think this shows that they still have the reach to Europe and to British interests in places like Turkey which are obviously on the border between the East and the West, so I think we have to remain vigilant. I do not think we can say that al-Qaeda has mutated into something less dangerous, that day-to-day control has been taken away from bin Laden, or that they are no longer interested in, or capable of, carrying out long-term terror attacks. They may not be capable of such ambitious attacks as 9/11, but, goodness, Madrid of course was a terrible, terrible attack.

  Q50 Chairman: And not very sophisticated.

  Ms Corbin: And not very sophisticated, but quite sophisticated as to its timing, as to the near simultaneous bombing on the four trains. No, the methods, the backpacks with the explosives all bought from a mining company, were relatively unsophisticated, but the sophistication of using mobile phone detonators and having four teams able to do that near-simultaneously, that is the hallmark of al-Qaeda and I think shows they are still able to do it and that is why vigilance is important as is the whole process of law-enforcement and intelligence-gathering, which I have always felt was more of an answer long-term than a military solution in the war against terror.

  Q51 Sir John Stanley: Then the United States. We were very interested in your extremely illuminating recent programme on Panorama with the relatives of the 9/11 victims, and clearly they have, understandably, and right across the United States there is still, a very real fear of being subjected to another terrorist attack. How far do you feel that the US Administration has conferred a significant extra degree of security on that now?

  Ms Corbin: We see a number of alerts from orange to red to yellow which constantly changes. I think the awareness is there of course post-9/11 and given it did to the psyche of that country. The work that was done by the 9/11 Commission I think has meant that the US public will be far more prepared and far more alert. Some have been critical saying that it is scaremongering, that fear is being unreasonably stirred up. However though I think that they are more prepared, how prepared can an open country, a democracy, ever be against people who are very determined to do this kind of thing? Every road tunnel, every bridge, every railway, every tube station is a potential target and it is impossible to protect, but better intelligence-gathering, better sharing of information—and certainly the American public is aware in a way that it never was before, and some would say it was complacent before—I think are the best safeguards, but you cannot have 100% security and the ability to guard against terror attacks.

  Q52 Sir John Stanley: Al-Qaeda and al-Qaeda-related elements have been using conventional weapons, conventional explosives for doing terrorist attacks, 9/11 and subsequently. What is your judgment as to the degree of risk that they may try to move into WMD and where do you see the risks that they might be able to do that in terms of what they might be able to procure?

  Ms Corbin: I think that when I last appeared I said that I felt the intention was there, but not the ability above and beyond a sort of crude ability to create poisons in terms of chemical and biological weapons, but the nuclear option I felt was still quite a long way off. I have not seen any information and I have not come across any information in the last year or so that tells me they are any closer to their objective and I still believe that it is an objective of bin Laden's. I note that the US Marines have said that in the combing through of Fallujah in the last two days, they have found a cache of chemicals, crude chemicals, but chemicals that might be incorporated into the kind of bombs that the insurgents would be using in Fallujah, some of them are Islamic militants, so again I think they may not have the ability to strike in a way that would endanger a whole city, but they are looking for it all the time. They are looking for the value added, in their terms, and I do not think I can say too much about it, but certain things, events in this country and arrests that have been made, though I do not want to stray into legally difficult areas here, have also shown that those who are accused of having sympathies or perhaps being involved in these organisations have sought such materials, but again I do not think I should talk about it too much given that it is as yet going through the courts.

  Q53 Mr Illsley: On something you mentioned earlier, a courier from al-Zarqawi to bin Laden was intercepted, it just struck me, are we any closer to finding bin Laden? Again this follows on from another thing you said about the ability of the organisation to recreate itself. Donald Rumsfeld said on the 4th October, I think it was, that more than two-thirds of al-Qaeda's leadership have been arrested, detained or killed. That obviously contradicts what you have been saying and tends to give me the worry that we will never find bin Laden.

  Ms Corbin: Well, perhaps I can just deal with Donald Rumsfeld's comments and come back to bin Laden. Yes, this is a message that comes constantly from the Bush Administration, and the figure they give is that between two-thirds and three-quarters of al-Qaeda's leadership has been dealt with, but this was the three-quarters of the leadership that we knew about on 9/11 and that is three years ago, and there is an alternative leadership now. First of all, they have not taken out the people at the very top and those underneath them, we are led to believe, have been replaced by others, for example, in Saudi where whenever they take one leader out and then al-Qaeda announces that it now has different person, and Amer Azizi is a new name that comes up who is a man still at large and believed to be behind the Madrid bombing, a new al-Qaeda figure. We could talk about names endlessly, but I personally do not believe that you can say that the majority of al-Qaeda's leaders are taken out. I think the ones we knew about then have been taken out and have been replaced with other leaders and also people below that in the strata, because it has always operated in cells anyway and I am not quite sure how important leaders, in the sense that we understand them in the West as military operational chiefs. I am not sure how important they are, I am less confident that the organisation has been decapitated and still the man at the very top and indeed his deputy and indeed Mullah Omah, who were the three top wanted figures when the War on Terror was launched, are still at large, and whether they exercise day-to-day control or not, they are figureheads and they are very important, I think, as propaganda tools for al-Qaeda.

  Q54 Mr Illsley: Are we still looking for them?

  Ms Corbin: Yes.

  Q55 Mr Illsley: The reason I ask that is you have just said that the organisation can operate without them and I just wondered whether the West was now perhaps looking to spend more time, effort and resources dealing with anti-terrorism at home rather than going looking for, if you like, the leadership and whether, even if we find them, it will make any difference to a terrorist attack.

  Ms Corbin: Well, I think it is important for political reasons and the kind of propaganda we have been talking about where the videos and audiotapes that continue to come out are powerful recruiting tools, so making bin Laden still very effective. We can talk a little about the latest tape, if you like, because I think that was a particularly key moment, the appearance of bin Laden on video after more than two and a half years. On the hunt for bin Laden, we are led to believe that the trail has gone cold. The belief is that he is still in the border area between Afghanistan and Pakistan and indeed his video is believed to be genuine and he makes comments in it that date it to recent months, but the idea that anybody has got any closer to him has certainly gone away. There was a period in the summer when we saw intense activity in the tribal areas on the Pakistani side of the border, an operation known as the "Hammer and Anvil" whereby the Pakistani forces were attempting to drive across the militants to be trapped, if you like, against the anvil of American forces on the Afghan side, but people were unsure as to how much that was for political effect to show that President Musharraf was a trustworthy ally in the War on Terror and how much was down to the real indication that they had al-Qaeda people cornered. There was certainly a rumour that they believed al-Zawahiri was in that area, but I never heard of real concrete evidence that they had bin Laden cornered at that point. Since then, my information is that the trail has gone cold.

  Q56 Mr Illsley: Just moving, as Sir John mentioned, to the situation in Europe, I just wondered what your take was on the murder of Theo Van Gogh, the film-maker, whether that was just an incident of a backlash from the Muslim community against the film that they saw as offensive, a Satanic Verses-type issue, or whether this has developed into something far more serious and will produce perhaps a backlash against the Muslim communities in Europe where there are now attacks on mosques and so on in the Netherlands. Are the two linked or would it be possible to isolate the incident?

  Ms Corbin: I think there were similarities to the Satanic Verses in that I understand that the film which sparked this particular attack was very controversial and put forward views which would be offensive to many Muslims, but I think, on the other hand, there is no doubt a section of young Muslim men usually who are very angry, who feel dispossessed and disillusioned in our society, whether it be the Netherlands or here in Britain. I think the fear of those who track these developments, and I think it is something for our own Government and I know our own Government is very interested and concerned about, is how do you head off that anger and that feeling of alienation and dispossession before it is put to potent use by those who would recruit from that alienated section of our society. I think it is a very real problem for us in this country. It is not new, it has been that way for some time and I think 9/11 brought it to a head. I think again, if I can just go back to Iraq, that those insurgents who have been captured recently, whether they be on the Ba'athist end of the scale or the Islamic militant end of the scale, they are very angry and sometimes very incoherent about what their reasons are for wanting to fight and kill coalition forces, but there is a common theme which is an anger and a feeling of futility and loss in not quite knowing the motive for what they are doing and what the future holds for them. I think that can be paralleled in a less extreme way in our own society and in the Netherlands as well and it is a potent mix and it is a mix that we have to get to terms with and we have to try and find long-term solutions to.

  Q57 Sir John Stanley: You have just touched on the area that I wanted to come on to which is what are the policy options and whether there are things that particularly the British Government, which we are particularly concerned with here, could be doing and are not doing now. We all recognise that this is by far and away the most difficult terrorist issue in our lifetime because these are people who basically have a non-negotiable agenda. Do you feel, against that background, that in terms of trying to overcome them that we have any options other than the military and intelligence options in dealing with the al-Qaeda hard-core? Do you feel that there are any political policy options or negotiating options that we can entertain?

  Ms Corbin: I think that law-enforcement and intelligence have to be the option with the hard-core because it is perhaps too late to do anything about the way that they feel about our society, but I think it is very important that a different attitude be taken to those who might find themselves swimming in that direction or might find themselves susceptible to joining and that is to do with integration into our society, being part of it, being given opportunity, and also, it has to be said, solving the kind of political problems long-term that anger many of the Muslim world, whether it be the Israeli/Palestinian question or the lack of democracy across the Arab world. However, for the hard-core I believe that you have to keep a firm intelligence-gathering and legal framework, law-enforcement framework, but the whole point of the operation is to stop that sector growing and to head people off before they join. There are initiatives, like, for example, the attempt to regulate the kind of religious teachers that come to Britain and teach in mosques, to encourage a more home-grown, moderate form of Islam than the importation of mullahs who follow a more extreme Wahabist creed of Islam, though that seems quite a long-term view, but it is important. On the other hand, I think that when terrorist attacks occur as happened in Madrid and we in the UK see that and we feel that to be very close to home, then it is important too that the Muslim community here stands up and is counted in (a) saying it is wrong and (b), if they have information, being encouraged to report it and to make sure that these kind of terrorist cells are not allowed to develop here. I think responsibility lies there as well.

  Q58 Sir John Stanley: How up the agenda for the British Government and indeed other western governments should be the whole issue of trying to support reformist, more democratic movements inside some of the key Middle Eastern states, African states, Saudi, and down the Gulf? I think we are all very conscious that there is a sort of small two-way conflicting push here which to a degree we experience in this country. Terrorism tends to make governments reach for suppressive, intrusive and potentially dictatorial instruments, but at the same time if you pursue those policies, as the Saudis are certainly experiencing, you create a potential cauldron which is likely to overcome your regime. Do you feel that the British Government is doing enough in the reformist agenda or do you think that it is going to have to accept the realities of terrorism and recognise that a lot of countries will say, "Our first priority is to keep our state together", and they are not going to take whatever measures unless they can ensure that happens?

  Ms Corbin: I think Britain has taken a tougher stance. I am not sure that it would have taken it if America had not taken it following 9/11 and the fact that 19 of the hijackers were Saudi. I think this has changed public opinion in America towards Saudi Arabia and has driven their Government's policy, so I think we have followed on from them, and I am not confident that the British Government would have perhaps taken that line alone. Recent and very interesting work has been done in Norway on the reasons why terrorists become terrorists and particularly suicide bombers. It was often thought that poverty was a key factor, but their work has shown that it is not poverty, but one of the key factors is repression, the lack of democracy and the feeling that they have no voice in their own country, so I think that research bears out the importance of pushing in that direction, pushing for more democracy in those countries where it is lacking.

  Q59 Chairman: Following Sir John's theme, in terms of the implication for us in the UK of these wider movements, there was an interesting juxtaposition in today's morning press where The Independent suggested that the Government was seeking to create a climate of fear as if exaggerating the threat, yet the Daily Mail had a large piece about the danger or the threat to Canary Wharf. How do you respond?

  Ms Corbin: Well, in the book that I wrote about al-Qaeda, I did actually give details about Canary Wharf as a possible target and the fears of our own intelligence and security apparatus about Canary Wharf, but I have never seen any evidence that suggests that a plot has actually been uncovered to attack Canary Wharf. There certainly was information about an attack on Heathrow Airport and that was well documented and troops were sent to surround Heathrow Airport. The fear was there that a shoulder-launched missile could have been used against a plane taking off or landing, but I was a bit surprised at the Daily Mail headline today. I do not know of an actual plot to fly planes into—


 
previous page contents next page

House of Commons home page Parliament home page House of Lords home page search page enquiries index

© Parliamentary copyright 2005
Prepared 5 April 2005