Select Committee on Foreign Affairs Minutes of Evidence


Examination of Witnesses (Questions 40-59)

12 OCTOBER 2005

DR DAVID CHANDLER AND PROFESSOR JAMES PETTIFER

  Q40 Sir John Stanley: In the last session we focused on Bosnia and Herzegovina externally and I should now like to come to look at it internally. Apart from the state of the economy, which certainly gives the High Representative a lot of concern, the biggest single political issue internally is the future evolution of the constitution, coupled with the future role of the High Representative who of course doubles up as the EU Special Representative. Those two are linked. I should like to ask you both what you feel is going to be the longevity of the High Representative/EU Special Representative position? Do you think that position is going to be needed for five or ten years? Secondly, though Dayton, against almost all the odds, has been a remarkable achievement in securing the degree of stability it has, everybody I talk to acknowledges the cumbersome nature of it. There are 15 to 20 separate prime ministers, three huge great layers of government, everything triple-hatted. That was necessary and without that civil government would not have returned to Bosnia Herzegovina, but clearly that needs to evolve. So could you give us your views on how Bosnia Herzegovina should be evolving and what are the particular constitutional evolutions which you think the British Government should be particularly pressing for?

  Professor Pettifer: David Chandler knows a lot more about Bosnia than I do, but my general philosophy, particularly having spent an awful lot of time in Kosovo over the last four years, is that things take a lot longer than we think and that Lord Ashdown's position should be maintained with the full powers for a long time. Whether those powers need exercising or whether some of them can be quietly left to wither away with the growth of better Bosnian institutions, would be what we should hope for. David should really comment on this and not me.

  Dr Chandler: As usual the whole thing is the reverse of the way it looks. A lot of people have argued that Dayton is so cumbersome that it is really difficult to transform things, but in fact Dayton was a hugely flexible agreement. The only people who signed up to it were the neighbouring countries and the Bosnian Government. Everyone else involved, the international institutions and international agencies, all wrote their own mandate and they are not bound by Dayton. As you will be aware, in most of the Dayton Agreement the Office of the High Representative's role, when it was initially thought of, was just for one year and was a co-ordinating role. No-one imagined that the role of the Office of the High Representative would be transformed. No-one imagined that 10 years after Dayton was signed there would be a continual extension of mandates of international institutions. Dayton has been extremely flexible and even though there are 15 to 20 prime ministers and all these Bosnian government structures, that is in the fictional world. Somewhere I have a twelve-page document which is just a list of the edicts which Lord Ashdown has put into place just this year alone. In the real world policy making is something which is totally owned by the international community. It is difficult when we talk about transformation, because it is the Peace Implementation Council (PIC), an ad hoc body, whose legal standing was only confirmed after the event, which basically decides the remit of the High Representative, although sometimes the High Representative argues that he decides his own remit. It is the most flexible framework around. The interesting thing is that the transformation has not been so much with the constitution, or with more say for the people of Bosnia, but within the Peace Implementation Council. The shift from this ad hoc international body without any clear target, started after the Kosovo war, where we have seen a shift towards a much more centralised EU regulation within Bosnia. You see that formalised with the double-hatted nature of Paddy Ashdown when he assumed the post in 2002. That is when the post of the European Union Special Representative was created. I know from speaking to Lord Ashdown, and I am sure he will tell you next week when he is here, that when he took on that post he imagined that he would be the last High Representative of the Peace Implementation Council, although I am not sure that he imagined the real powers would necessarily disappear at the same time, but rather that their format would change and be much more linked to forms of EU regulation. Constitutionally it is interesting. In the lengthy and drawn out process of EU guidance in preparation for the accession process—the stabilisation and association process and prior negotiations in that process, the Dayton constitution has changed. So the chair of the Council of Ministers has a permanent position rather than a rotating position like the presidency and his job is to liaise with the European Union. There is the Directorate for European Integrations which goes through all the laws and works out how to bring them in line with the EU acquis even though there is no formally signed stabilisation and association process agreement. This very much centralises the law making process and fairly much undermines the Dayton fiction of numerous different realms of political authority; all that is fairly much centralised in reality. In real terms Dayton has been transformed, but the transformation has largely been informal through the PIC and the transformation towards much more direct EU regulation; the EU now seconds civil servants to help write the Bosnian laws and to implement them. It is very much direct; all the information comes from Brussels to Sarajevo rather than through some convoluted process like a democracy, where there is a real system of government.

  Q41 Sir John Stanley: Could you just focus on the specific question I put to you at the end? What do you think the British Government should be pressing for, both in terms of the continuation or not of the High Representative/Special Representative and the degree of push you think the British Government should be giving for constitutional change?

  Dr Chandler: Getting rid of the post of the High Representative or the EU Special Representative would be a good idea, just in terms of practicalities as well as in terms of human decency. Even within the EU it is problematic, because Bosnia is about to sign up in terms of the stabilisation and association process. For every other country the EU is very keen to have democracy, human rights and the rule of law, but in Bosnia there is a Special Representative with the power to sack elected officials, to take away people's bank accounts, to dismiss them without any court of appeal and to impose legislation. You can see there is a slight element of double standards there. Within the EU there is a bit of a division: the Parliament argues that the Special Representative needs to be abolished, whereas the European Council, where the power is, has argued that he has special "anomalous" powers and that as long as he only uses them in a soft way it is okay: this is expressed as the "pull of Europe" rather than the "push of Dayton"—though in practice the exercise of external power is the same. What has happened is that his authority has been softened through a load of other ad hoc institutional mechanisms, such as establishing special hand-picked commissions. There is a hand-picked commission, say to look at the reorganisation of Mostar, there is some agreement on smaller issues, but there is a large division on the larger issues between the Croatian representatives and Bosniak representatives. Then the High Representative brings in an edict to resolve this and centralise the administration, but by arguing that there was some agreement anyway and that he was just putting the icing on the cake this is then hailed as just the use of soft power. There has been experimentation within that and I guess—though anyone can guess—that the High Representative hat will be abolished; the EU Special Representative hat may sustain itself, unless it comes up as a public issue. Unfortunately, not many other candidate countries are in the position to raise the issue of democracy in Bosnia, because obviously they are trying to be nice to the EU rather than critical; they do not really have the freedom of discussion. I think it will sustain itself for the middle-term future, but it is only a guess.

  Professor Pettifer: As far as the EU is concerned, I personally am a strong Euro-sceptic anyway so shall be accused of being jaundiced, but I think the EU changes the rules every day on this. I have followed with great care what has been happening with the Turkish application and we all know what goes on in Turkey still. Less of it goes on and hopefully there will be much less of it, but the EU has given the Turks a wide open door with these things still going on which we would all disapprove of. I do not think that there is one EU position: there are EU positions for different countries.

  Chairman: Sir John, may I invite you to put a question which I think you raised with me yesterday as to whether the provincial reconstruction team concept, which I believe was in Bosnia, can be developed in Kosovo?

  Q42 Sir John Stanley: I think that is more appropriate for the military when we get there, but I am very happy to put it on behalf of the Committee. Do you consider the very successful structure of liaison observation teams, and there are lots in Bosnia Herzegovina, is capable of being transferred into Kosovo?

  Professor Pettifer: There are many, many things which need changing with KFOR. One of the things the March events showed was that the structure of what is colloquially known as "capital command" in KFOR, where the French commander or the British commander speaks to London before deciding what to do on some issue which the KFOR command wants him to deal with, does have to be changed. In all the analysis of the March trouble we saw that KFOR was not really capable of acting in a coherent way with a coherent command structure and of mobilising people on the ground quickly to trouble spots. I am not familiar with the details of the Bosnian example, but I think any better system would be well worth looking at.

  Q43 Mr Chidgey: May I come back to Kosovo, really to try to summarise some of the points which have been discussed in various degrees so far so that the Committee can be clear about your views? We have mentioned, for example, the March riots and put a question mark against the failure of UNMIK in that regard. Do you feel that there were failings in the administration in Kosovo resulting in UNMIK's problems? If so, what could be done to rectify them, so we can be clear on that?

  Professor Pettifer: The central danger in the situation which continues, which I tried to point out in my memorandum to you, although obviously in a very limited space, is that the area of Kosovo north of the Ibar river, which broadly corresponds to Leposavic/Opstina and northern Mitrovice/Opstina, which is French KFor, although not all of French KFor, has never really been properly under UN control. This goes back to March 1999. The parallel structure problem continued for a very, very long time and it still continues to this day. A prominent UN official, who is certainly not known for his pro-Albanian leanings, said to me recently "You know, our problem is that we have people who have killed 65 or 70 people sitting drinking coffee in Mitrovice". That encapsulates the problem very well. The danger in the future which I see and which I tried to draw to the Committee's attention, is that these forces are still there and our capacity to deal with them may be improving and some lessons have certainly been learned from March, but whether they have been learned in a way which gives us the real capacity is a very difficult issue to assess. My personal view at the moment is that we do not have it, which is why I wrote what I did to you.

  Dr Chandler: It is slightly problematic; I think it avoids the problem. The problem, as was considered in the earlier session this afternoon, is that of a political solution and without that everything is up in the air, there is a lot of insecurity, etcetera. However, the problem seems to be deflected. So the idea of the Serbian criminal, tough people toughing it out in Mitrovice and the bridge watchers who are intimidating everyone is a myth. I was actually there during the second election, in Mitrovice near the bridge. It was a fiction. There was no army of toughs. If you ever went to the bridge over the Ibar you would see loads of NATO tanks and you could not get across without people checking you and stuff. It is an easy thing to believe that the problems caused are internal to the situation rather than something to do with international policy. If you do not have a solution, everything becomes more of a problem. The March events are rather typical. There was rioting, there was a spark in a situation where a spark could lead to problems, but that does not mean there was a problem with the specific organisation of UNMIK and the army of enforcement. Unless you have the army everywhere, it is going to be very difficult. Unless you attach a soldier to every Serb pensioner who is there, there are always going to be those sorts of problems. Rather than focus on the bigger picture, as in Bosnia as well, minor problems become exaggerated and that is like a crisis for UNMIK, whereas the crisis is in fact located probably in Western capitals at a more fundamental level.

  Q44 Mr Chidgey: Just to be clear, we are aware of the arguments that the provisional institutions of self-government should take more competencies from UNMIK. We have touched on this. Do you accept that yourselves, or are you terribly opposed to that? If you do accept it, what competencies could we actually specify? What might those be that could be taken from UNMIK?

  Professor Pettifer: This is happening; this has been happening actively for at least 18 months. After all, part of the UN central headquarters moved out of Pristina well over a year ago and these things are being handed over. You are also getting a much more self-confident society. People do not, as they did in the summer of 1999, spend time thinking too much about what UNMIK tells them. UNMIK is rather like the weather: it is there, sometimes it is good, sometimes it is bad, but it is going on in the sky somewhere above us.

  Q45 Mr Chidgey: Is there an initiative starting at  grassroots level to take on board these responsibilities?

  Professor Pettifer: Yes. I take the view, which I must say is not a view all of my colleagues share, that at the moment the sovereignty issue is primarily about two things. It is about the economy, because no-one will invest unless they know whether they own something or not. It is also about security and borders. At the moment, nobody really knows what is going to happen to the main industries of Kosovo. The privatisation process was stalled and Count Lambsdorff was trying to start it again and then it stopped and no big companies are going to invest in Kosovo until they know that there is a clear legal framework for them to do so. It seems to me that this is the overriding argument for a political decision.

  Dr Chandler: I think the experimentation with local democracy first is probably the worst type of solution. It is not that people in Kosovo do not know how to organise local self-help initiatives; even under the Serbian authority they did it. The problem is a fundamental lack of resources. You cannot really resolve problems by this focus on locally sustainable solutions. There is a big focus and a lot of international NGOs are trying to do that. Even UNMIK has finally thought about economic policy as well, though without a more fundamental transformation—with unemployment over 50%, and obviously the statistics are questionable but most of the grey economy is just sustainable agriculture—it is going to be difficult to give people any sense of hope in the future with just the carrot of more local control and more local authority participation. People are expecting a bit more and those expectations were raised when there was the war and when UNMIK took over. They will not be satisfied by simply being told "It is up to you to organise community self-help groups" because the resources are not really there.

  Q46 Mr Chidgey: Back to the March riots again and the concept that they contributed to a sense of disillusionment amongst the Kosovo Serb population. Is that the case? If so, is there a risk that the Serbs might boycott the forthcoming elections or that Albanian extremists might gain more influence in the provisional institutions? My last point is this whole issue of the high rate of endemic unemployment. How can UNMIK or the provisional institutions make some attempt, some progress in alleviating the problem? Is privatisation of state sector industries a route which can be explored?

  Professor Pettifer: I can give you a pretty quick answer to the first question: as in previous Kosovo elections, Serb participation will be low, irrespective of what their leaders say. Different leaders will say different things: whether to participate is part of the tennis-ball, ping-pong aspect of politics in Belgrade and for Belgrade politicians to score points as well as for Kosovo politicians. The second problem is simply one of legality. There is a lot of money outside Kosovo waiting to be invested. There is a lot of interest in the base metal mines, because these kinds of metals are sexy again and have an economic future. There is some interest in agriculture and there is a great deal of money in the Kosovo Albanian Diaspora, particularly in the United States. I have met leading businessmen from big companies, who are Albanian Americans and who say "Yes, we'd love to do something, but my board won't accept it until we know what we own".

  Dr Chandler: I agree with what Professor Pettifer said on pretty much all those issues. The final point is that everything is temporary, short term, low level as though there is a vacuum of capacity within UNMIK, not just on the political status but even on the economy. With Kosovo it just concentrates the problem of state-building which we see in other areas as well. There is a power imbalance in that international powers are taking responsibility, but then the next stage of taking that responsibility just is not there; there is no vision politically, economically or socially, which is, in historical terms, fairly unique. This is why we are creating these phantom states which are not puppet regimes doing the will of the international community nor genuine states relating to the will and needs of the population. It is not like imperialism and, equally, is not like the old UN idea of states and sovereignty. This particular situation is the worst of both worlds: no responsibility is taken internationally, but it is impossible for local actors to assume responsibility as well. Kosovo just sums that up and it is a sad indictment on international pretensions in this area.

  Q47 Andrew Mackinlay: Picking up that last point, presumably we would be correct in assuming that basically no taxes are being collected in Kosovo either for the central government or for local government.

  Professor Pettifer: Oh, no, that is not the case. About £300 million a year comes in, mostly through customs. The customs tax has been quite effective and quite successful: income tax and VAT are much less effective.

  Q48 Andrew Mackinlay: One of the things I am very interested in is the policing side, both in terms of combating organised crime and the international nature of crime. The UNMIK police were formed by the UN begging various police agencies to contribute people. The United Kingdom's contribution, a very highly regarded one, was by the police service in Northern Ireland and the chief constable is now withdrawing that. Can you throw in any observations on that? Can I just tell you what I mean? I am horrified that the Foreign Office has not been able to find, either with the chief constable of Northern Ireland and/or other chief constables, a way of providing what I believe is a highly regarded British standard of policing, but we are going to withdraw. I guess the policing is pretty fragile, is it not?

  Professor Pettifer: The facts are that the murder rate in Pristina now is actually lower than that of Stockholm and the crime rate as a whole is not bad on things like muggings, rapes, all the serious crimes. This is a real achievement for UNMIK police. The problem is that of political assassinations, which remain frequent. The nature of Kosovo society, both Serb and Albanian, is such that until it is changed out of all recognition it is going to stay that way and that is the stain on Kosovo.

  Q49 Andrew Mackinlay: Are interface areas dealt with by the military rather than UNMIK police?

  Professor Pettifer: As a generalisation, although it is difficult to say, the military have withdrawn from a lot of policing activities in the last two years as the crime rate has dropped. The mayhem days of 2000-01 are long since over, but economic crime is all-pervasive, for three reasons. It is partly because of the very high unemployment. Secondly it is because of where Kosovo lies: as a central point on the transnational route, particularly of heroin, from the East into Europe and that would apply whoever runs Kosovo and whatever government structure it has. Thirdly, there is a very anti-authoritarian political culture in the Kosovo-Albanian world which was built of years of resistance to regimes like that of Milosevic; cooperation with the police does not come easily.

  Dr Chandler: About two years ago I was at the Kosovo police training college in Vushtri because I thought the idea that if you change the police you can change the rest of society was quite interesting. It appeals to external actors because it is easy to change the police because you are paying their wages and you can tell them exactly what to do, so everyone behaves extremely well and everyone is nice to minorities at the college and everyone gets paid. However, in the real world of Kosovo there are not many mixed communities and most people who work in the field know that it is like a make-believe trained police force, because it has been artificially created. It is a bit like Iraq: something happens and people take off their uniforms and run away. That is why, even with the best will in the world and the best training by police officers from Northern Ireland, it is difficult to transform the police and expect that to have a knock-on effect on society. In Bosnia this whole idea of democratic policing and a lot of the issues has been even more interesting and research shows that it has even undermined the police as a cohesive unit because the police need to have a certain amount of autonomy within the institution and trust—unfortunately, all the regulation and political correctness and being polite to everybody all the time has caused all sorts of problems internally. Nowdays, whenever they make arrests people say their human rights are being abused. It fails in terms of the stated aims of international advisers and then it fails in a much deeper way even undermining existing levels of capacity.

  Q50 Andrew Mackinlay: I suppose what I am asking you is: if you were advising the British Government, would you advise that it would be prudent to withdraw British policing?

  Professor Pettifer: No, Kosovo will need all forms of international help for a long time, of which policing is only one. Lots of other expertise would be needed and that is true of lots of other second world and third world countries. The role of the police at times becomes politicised and the problem stemming from that is really not the police, who have real achievements to their credit, but the rule of law through the courts and their judiciary and the very poor quality of trials and the very, very politicised nature of some of the international prosecutors.

  Q51 Ms Stuart: At the end of this we are going to publish a report which is supposed to go beyond extremely detailed analytical pessimism as to why nothing is working. At the moment I am getting the feeling that no taxes are being collected and there is no relationship between those who govern and are governed and the economy is not working. It is government by fax from Brussels in a sense and you are saying that the EU is imposing its conditions; power struggles rather than democracy because we have not worked out who is top of the pile and until we have worked out who is top of the pile we will not get political parties or any kind of elections which are meaningful to us. Within that picture what, in your view, would be the three key things you would say a British Government should do which would actually improve things?

  Professor Pettifer: There is one thing overwhelmingly which clearly needs to be done, because the public discourse in Britain about Kosovo is very disappointing: the geo-political significance of Kosovo to the United States is never discussed and never appears in any considerations. One talks of the EU and the EU doing all sorts of things, but what really matters in Kosovo is what Uncle Sam thinks and in particular, within Uncle Sam's orbit, what the Pentagon thinks.

  Q52 Ms Stuart: What do you think the Pentagon does think?

  Professor Pettifer: I think they take a very long-term view. I am not fit to speak for them, but reading analytical material they think that Serbia will always remain partly linked to Russia, culturally and through the Church and various other geo-strategic factors. The British view that Serbia could be changed as a result of getting rid of Milosevic is seen as wildly optimistic, so I suppose I reflected what I think of the dominant view in some parts of the Pentagon in the first paragraph of my memorandum to you. This is a view with which I know many people may not agree, but Kosovo would not be where it is now, where you could even discuss political status, without firm American backing and it is in relation to that one thing that the British Government needs to work out its position.

  Q53 Ms Stuart: If I had asked you the same question I asked the last witnesses, about whether people have real ties to the US, you would have said yes.

  Professor Pettifer: Long-term geo-political calculations are involved. Camp Bondsteel is one of the largest American bases in the world ever built since the Vietnam War. That is not built that way by coincidence.

  Dr Chandler: With regard to the three key things for the British government to do. Firstly, it is important to realise that nothing is going to be changed without economic and social transformation, so investment in large-scale industry rather than sustainable, quilt-making, projects would be one thing. The second thing would be that historically Kosovo has only maintained itself through aid and through remittances from abroad and I would let people from Kosovo into the EU to work . . . you did ask.

  Professor Pettifer: On a licensed basis in the old way Italian workers came years ago and people from the old Yugoslavia came, on a licence.

  Dr Chandler: Thirdly, I would open negotiations with Belgrade in terms of a final political status settlement.

  Q54 Chairman: Two questions in respect of Kosovo. International institutions are frequently criticised elsewhere for paying salaries which distort the local salary structures, sucking in too many people of competence and thereby weakening the local administration. Is that a phenomenon you see in Kosovo?

  Professor Pettifer: Yes and no. You have to pay people the going rate and the going rate now is set by the big contexts of wars like Iraq, Afghanistan reconstruction, where people are paid astronomic sums. If we do not pay reasonable amounts in places like Bosnia and Kosovo, you will not get anybody good at all.

  Q55 Chairman: Not just the international experts, but those within the country, the locals.

  Professor Pettifer: Over time the problem sorts itself out. What we need are the very large numbers of trained people of Kosovan origin abroad who for various reasons have not yet decided to commit themselves to the new Kosovo. These are people, particularly in Switzerland and Germany, with real top level expertise, particularly in business and in some technologies and they should be given carrots to come back.

  Dr Chandler: Firstly, the fact that the international administration is the administration undermines the local administration and people's desire to work in it. Secondly, there is the lack of any idea that people have a future in Kosovo, that people would work in government out of a love of doing something for their country. I know it seems strange, though maybe not in this particular audience, but there is also a political aspect to it as well. At the moment, with uncertainty, you are not going to get quality people committing themselves to something which is pseudo. It is not part of a larger sovereign state, but equally there is no real autonomy. Who knows what Kosovo is?

  Q56 Chairman: Mr Chidgey did ask about the March riots and the effects on UNMIK. I should like to turn to similar effects on the NATO KFOR. What lessons, if any in your judgment, have been learned since March? Do you believe that NATO failed to read the situation in time? If so, what changes have been made to ensure that there would be no recurrence?

  Professor Pettifer: There has been a lot of riot training and much more coherent programmes to control public order and I think also that some fairly stiff reprimands have been handed out. The KFOR commanders believed that X or Y base could mobilise so many people to within five kilometres in half an hour and it turned out in many cases that the people were not even on base, let alone capable of being mobilised with some contingents. The general problem is one of a wider issue of decision making within NATO; big NATO countries in particular are not willing to modify their command structures much, or at all, in international forces.

  Q57 Chairman: Are they prepared to modify the caveats on the use of their own forces, particularly Germany?

  Professor Pettifer: They may be, but the problem is that they are well aware and right to be aware, of the capacity of Balkan conflicts to accelerate very rapidly in unpredictable ways, which could raise major force protection issues. That is certainly a big issue for the United States contingent.

  Chairman: In our visit we shall be meeting General de Kerambon the French commander.

  Q58 Andrew Mackinlay: I want to tease out something which was music to my ears to a certain extent. Both of you referred to allowing Kosovans, under some controlled conditions, to work in the European Union. I should really like you to amplify on that and how you could have it under controlled conditions. I certainly see, from a domestic MP's point of view, all this business of the individual, fit, able, probably very intelligent, sometimes highly qualified or having the capacity to get qualified, young men in particular, playing cat and mouse with the immigration authorities here and the question of justice and so on, with all the criminality which can flow from that. I should like you to say how we could do this and to what extent. I just think there is a degree of logic there, with the possibility of a cadre returning at some stage.

  Professor Pettifer: As is quite well known, I am in favour of a much tougher policy. I recently published a paper on the Migration Watch website. I do not agree with everything about Migration Watch, but I do think they promote a very valuable discussion. I think it is time for a new approach to Balkan asylum seekers, to reward the hard working, but be tougher on the people who are a problem.

  Dr Chandler: The more decriminalisation of the system, the fewer criminals there would be.

  Q59 Andrew Mackinlay: It is much better for people to be paying taxes in the United Kingdom than not, is it not? I am not asking you to agree with me, but I presume that is what you are alluding to.

  Professor Pettifer: Yes. At the moment I do not think there is much external migration from Kosovo. There is a pretty standard position with a very large number of migrants in places like Germany who have been there quite a long time. The real problem on that scale is in Germany and Switzerland; as far as I am aware they are not in Britain.

  Chairman: Gentlemen, thank you very much indeed. You and your colleagues earlier have provided a very helpful platform for us. Many thanks.





 
previous page contents

House of Commons home page Parliament home page House of Lords home page search page enquiries index

© Parliamentary copyright 2005
Prepared 23 February 2005