Select Committee on International Development Minutes of Evidence


Examination of Witness (Questions 1-19)

DR SULIMAN BALDO

29 NOVEMBER 2004

  Q1 Tony Worthington: You are very welcome, Dr Baldo, and we are very much looking forward to your evidence on behalf of the International Crisis Group. As I am sure you know, as a Committee we are going to Sudan at the end of January and your help in preparing us for that visit, alongside all the other material that we are receiving, will be very welcome indeed. Could I just say to start with that we have heard a great deal about the work of the International Crisis Group and read a great deal in the past. It would be helpful to start with if you could talk a little bit about what the ICG is and how it comes to be involved?

  Dr Baldo: Many thanks for having me, your Honour, and ladies and gentlemen. I am pleased to be here and very honoured. I appreciate this opportunity and thank you for having me. I am here representing the International Crisis Group. It is a non-profit, private multi-national organisation, with headquarters in Brussels, whose mission is to help and contribute to conflict prevention and containment through advocacy, field-based research and investigations. The organisation has about 100 field-based analysts in different parts of the world—Africa, the Middle East, the Balkans, Asia, South East Asia, and advocacy offices in Brussels, New York, Washington and Moscow, with the aim of engaging the international powers and international players to help with conflict prevention and containment. Our work in Africa is again based on this model of field research and we have field offices in Dakar, Pretoria and in Nairobi for Central and East Africa. The work in Sudan was launched in 2002, accompanying mainly—

  Q2 Mr Davies: While we are talking about the Agency itself, can you just tell us what are the sources of funding of the International Crisis Group?

  Dr Baldo: The main funding comes from private foundations and individuals. ICG also is an agency that receives government funding and in that capacity it receives considerable funding, for example, from the Canadian government, the Norwegians, several Member States of the European Union, the EU itself, Britain and Ireland. There is a vast variety of donor players of the organisation.

  Q3 Tony Worthington: Thank you very much; I think that was helpful. Again, before we start, just a point of clarification which I need—and I do not know if my colleagues do as well—but there are references to the Sudan Liberation Army and the Justice and Equality Movement; perhaps you could put those in context? The Justice and Equality Movement, in my reading, is associated with Turabi, who leads an Islamic Party; I understand that much. Could you talk about whether there is any link at all between the Sudanese Liberation Army/Movement and the Sudanese People's Liberation Army/Movement with the SPLA, with which we have been familiar for years? What is that relationship? Is there one?

  Dr Baldo: Starting with the Justice and Equality Movement, it is associated with al-Turabi's Popular Congress in Sudan, but not in a way that, again as the government is arguing, is the armed faction of the Political Popular Congress of Hassan al-Turabi. So there is a loose association. Senior members of Turabi's group have joined the game and are pursuing their policy objectives that are national and that are overlapping with those of the Popular Congress. So there is that kind of intimate relationship between the two. With regard to the Sudan Liberation Army/Movement, it was founded by young Darfurians who were exposed, in urban centres to which they migrated as young workers and graduates, to the ideology of the SPLA and their interaction with migrants who became displaced from southern Sudan in these urban areas, and as such the SLA is very much influenced by the ideology of "a new Sudan". That is the ideology that John Garang, chairman of the SPLA, had formulated when founding the SPLA in the mid-80s. Later on we have had reliable reports that the SPLA, the southern Sudan People's Liberation Army, had helped establish the SLA in its infancy by training fighters for the SPLA and for the SLA—for the Sudan Liberation Movement and Army, and therefore Darfurian recruits to the tune of 1,500—and arming them. When the Southern SPLA started in negotiations with the government for a peace agreement they distanced themselves from directly helping the SLA, according to our information, at a military level. But the SPLA never made a secret of its political sympathy and support for the cause of the Sudan Liberation Army of Darfur. There is therefore again this ideological, political sympathy between the SLA and the SPLA, much as it exists between the Justice and Equality Movement and the Popular Congress of Hassan al-Turabi.

  Q4 Tony Worthington: The SPLA has split or has had many factions over the years, it has just kept on happening, and John Garang's ambition was always, as I understand it, for a united Sudan?

  Dr Baldo: Yes.

  Q5 Tony Worthington: But he has now been part of negotiations that are seeing there being a less than unified Sudan, one which has a lot of control in the south for the south. What is happening now in terms of the attitudes by the SPLA to the activities of the SLA? Are they pursuing a common purpose or has the purpose changed?

  Dr Baldo: At a certain level the SPLA is a national movement. Many in the north of Sudan identify with the cause of the SPLA. The SPLA has been in a political alliance and military alliance of the north Sudan opposition groups under the umbrella of the National Democratic Alliance and SPLA soldiers are the main contingent of opposition forces that have been fighting the government in north eastern Sudan since 1995, since the foundation of the united military command of the National Democratic Alliance. So the level of identification with the cause of the SPLA is shared by many different marginalized constituencies in the north of Sudan, including in Darfur, and the example of the Sudan Liberation Movement and Army is a good example of that. The SPLA has been presenting its own negotiations with the government for a permanent, comprehensive peace agreement, as an avant garde or as an opening of the way for other marginalized groups to benefit. The way the negotiations were structured, basically privileging the actions of the crisis in Sudan that is North-South, has indeed created a lot of frustration and agitation among other marginalized groups who believe that the Sudan government and sharing in political power and wealth is going to be done bi-laterally by the government and the SPLA, leaving out anyone else. According to these concerns we have witnessed the eruption of the insurgency in Darfur because they feel that if they stay outside this process they may not have sufficient share of the wealth sharing and the political sharing arrangements for national power. The same level of concern and agitation is now happening in eastern Sudan, unfortunately.

  Q6 Tony Worthington: That was certainly helpful to me. Could I just, before handing over to my colleagues, ask you to bring us right up to date with what has been happening in the last week or so in Darfur, so that we know the present context?

  Dr Baldo: I have made two written submissions, one in a joint paper on the root causes of the conflict and the different dimensions and multiple layers of this conflict situation[1], and a submission in the name of the International Crisis Group with a description of recent developments and political descriptions[2]. I did want to focus on the most recent developments, basically as of late October and in the course of this month. We are very, very concerned—and I cannot underline it sufficiently—by certain trends, certain patterns in the violence that is continuing now in Darfur, because of the prevalence of ethnic revenge as a motor, as a fuel for much of the violence that is occurring currently. Several incidents have occurred that highlight this concern, this development. The background: the government has politicised ethnicity in Darfur instead of acting as an arbitrator and as a neutral guarantor between communities that in dispute over resources or over access to land or grazing ranges. It has decided to side with particular groups, in this case the groups of Arab origin. That identity is indeed a politicised identity. It has been used by local elites in Darfur for political, social promotion in the government, at the level of the government of the three states of Darfur and the national government. That has increased the level of frustration of communities of African background, and this was a major factor in creating the environment for the explosion of the insurgency. The government in its counter-insurgency campaign relied on ethnicity again by raising the Janjaweed militia from amongst certain clans of some Arab groups, but the Janjaweed are different things at the same time; they are also people who are serving terms in government prisons for grave crimes such as murder, robbery, highway robbery, which is an aspect relating to a certain situation in the region, and who were freed if they repented. There was a national campaign which was called Repentance, and those were integrated in this government militia. The Janjaweed include also groups of Arab background from Chad, and all that amalgam was thrown against the civilian base of the rebellion, and therefore instead of fighting citizens who rose and opposed the government in armed fashion, the Sudanese Army and its allied militia attacked civilians to punish collectively what is considered as the population base of those insurgents. Hence, this is the trigger which is the cause of the devastating humanitarian disaster that occurred with today 1.6 million people displaced and the like. But the aspect of Arab versus Africans never occurred as a people against people in the conflict thus far. The major Arab groups in Darfur have actually deliberately—and in many cases tried very hard—to stay out of conflict and not to take sides in it. This is the case of several major Arab groups in Darfur, such as the Rizeigat in southern Darfur. The reason that they have not cooperated with the government strategy of this Popular Defence Force is that in the war against the SPLA in southern Sudan they found nothing of the promises that the government said it would deliver to them. This time around they said they will stay outside, despite pressures, intimidation and incentives for them to join the fight. So what is happening right now is that there is a gradual slide towards the tribalisation of the conflict, the reason being therefore the emergence of ethnic revenge, attempts to solicit and to stoke collectively actions by a group against another.


  Q7 Tony Worthington: Could I ask you to talk about the last week or so because we have read the papers on the background, for which we are very grateful? What we do not have is what has been happening over the last week.

  Dr Baldo: Over the last few weeks there have been incidents of hostage taking; they signal a breakdown in the rebel command, because it was rebels, particularly of the SLA, that were involved in stopping buses, commercial convoys and singling out people for detention and they have abducted, for example, in late October, a group of 18 people of Arab origin in North Darfur. The response has been of Arab militia detaining several people of African origin in retaliation. So this indicates a trend of polarisation along these lines, as I said earlier in my explanation. It could also be argued that the entire population of the internally displaced people (IDPs) of 1.6 million plus is in a hostage situation of a sort. This is a population which is over one million of African origin. They are in these camps and they are unable to leave the camps out of fear of concern for their own safety because they are subjected to harassment, detention, attack by the Janjaweed that continue to roam these camps. But there have been several incidents over the last few weeks of the Janjaweed and other government militia roaming through camps discharging firearms as IDPs tried to leave. These incidents of collective intimidation, terrorisation of IDP groups were often linked to attempts by the government to break down the larger IDP camps; to force, therefore, IDPs to leave these camps, for areas where the government would prefer to relocate them. The motivation of the government here is one of security. The large camps of 50,000 plus, 60,000 internally displaced people in some of these camps are actually very near or sometimes within city premises of the three capitals of the Darfur states.

  Q8 Tony Worthington: These are so-called "safe areas"?

  Dr Baldo: These are what the United Nations tried to establish as safe areas and that policy has terribly backfired, and I will come back to this.

  Tony Worthington: Can I hand over to Ann Clwyd to take that forward?

  Q9 Ann Clwyd: Before I get on to that, what you are describing is genocide, is it not?

  Dr Baldo: I do not want to go into the legalistic definitions and the like. What I am observing is a situation of massive violation of human rights that have led to the uprooting of these huge numbers and the entire tearing apart of the social fabric in Darfur. There is an international commission now looking into these war crimes and one of its points of mandate is to establish whether this is genocide or not. But I do not want to go into this. For me there has been, definitely from our perspective, a campaign of ethnic cleansing that took place in Darfur; there has been a campaign of indiscriminate attack against civilians—all against international humanitarian law and international human rights law.

  Q10 Ann Clwyd: For those of us watching on television the horrible pictures that have come out of Darfur, and seen the sufferings of the people, most of us feel that the response of the international community, for instance setting up safe areas which you have said does not work, I cannot understand why you should be reluctant to describe what you have just talked about as genocide.

  Dr Baldo: This is the evidence as we have established it. We cannot call this genocide until we are certain in investigations that are now underway by an independent international commission of inquiry, that is publicly mandated to do it by the UN Security Council. But I want to come back to the point you raised about the policy of safe areas. The international community here is not the only one that has failed to respond adequately. In the case of the policy of safe areas, which were initiated by the Secretary-General's Special Representative to Sudan and the Government of Sudan, it was in fact a total disaster. It backfired. Why did it backfire? Because the government used the pretext of establishing these safe areas and of extending the perimeters of the safe areas to actually increase its military presence and to encroach on areas under the control of the rebels. Therefore, there was a pattern of increased violations of the ceasefire between August and September, which has started actually the current surge in the violence, directly linked to the policy of safe areas, and each time the UN turned around and asked the government why is it fighting, they say, "We are simply enforcing the safe areas that we have agreed to establish." It was this level of cynicism that has led the government to use a humanitarian clause for military purposes, and this is the response of the international community that has totally backfired and was a fiasco and I could not condemn it sufficiently.

  Q11 Ann Clwyd: In the past the Government of Sudan established in the Nuba Mountains, for example, peace villages. Given that I remember trying to visit the Nuba Mountains some years ago when I was in the Sudan, of course there were no-go areas for outsiders and we were not able to visit them, what is the situation in these so-called peace villages in the Nuba Mountains now?

  Dr Baldo: The Nuba mountains, since 2002 have witnessed a certain calm, a certain claim to normalcy thanks to the ceasefire agreement between the SPLA and the government in the Nuba Mountains. That was an agreement that was initiated even before the initiation of the IGAD process. Therefore there has been a movement of return of IDPs to their villages, there have been cross line exchanges between populations and between governments and SPLA officials. The situation is still there but there has been much improvement since the period you have visited in these areas, in this policy of peace villages.

  Q12 Ann Clwyd: But is this not forcing people to live in particular areas where they may not necessarily want to live?

  Dr Baldo: This was indeed a policy of, I would say, social engineering at this time; that was in the mid 1980s. The government physically transplanted people who were displaced by the violence in the Nuba Mountains to areas in the north of Darfur—that is to say areas that are totally different from their home regions—placed them in these so-called peace villages, subjected them to intensive programmes of repatriation, culturisation, Islamisation. Even if they were Muslim it was not judged of the right quality. They were taught how to dress, how to circumcise, how to bury their dead, how to conduct their rights of marriage and birth-giving and the like. And then when people wanted to leave it was only men who were allowed to leave to search for work—families were kept behind. It was an elaborate policy that was done during a certain period of time with a view to really change the social construct, the intellectual construct of this population. It is a policy of engineering, in much the same way as imposing fashion as imposing colonisation during the colonial period, with the intent here being one of imposing Islamic/Arabic culture on this population. It is true that the policy of safe villages is in a way an indication of this continued pattern of conduct of the Government of Sudan right through. What is happening now, in Darfur there has been a lot of focus on what the government is doing and therefore it is showing compliance while at the same time being faithful to its objectives, whilst at the same time pursuing the same strategic objectives using the same type of tools.

  Q13 Ann Clwyd: Do you think that the international community has been reluctant to pressurise the Government of Sudan on Darfur because they are afraid of disrupting the North-South peace agreement? It looks as though that war may eventually be coming to an end? Do you think they are afraid of putting pressure because it may upset that?

  Dr Baldo: This has indeed been the case in late 2003, early 2004. The international communities, when we did advocacy in the United Nations and with the Security Council members, actually that was the argument too; that it is not the right moment, we are very near the conclusion of a comprehensive peace agreement, when that agreement is reached we are going to resolve all these problems and Darfur should really wait. There was pressure put on the Darfur rebels really to resist and disengage and the like. The government has deliberately used that window of opportunity to pursue its counter-insurgency strategy. Except that the response was totally disproportionate to the threat posed by the insurgency and the response has created a huge humanitarian disaster which was impossible to ignore. Therefore, the response of the international community has swung to the other extreme. A lot of focus on Darfur, disengagement, lack of attention, lack of follow-up on Naivasha, on the peace negotiations with the SPLA. Again, that was an opportunity for the government to really slow down and drag its feet in the Naivasha process with the hope that it would get off the hook in Darfur. So it is a game of manipulation in which the government has been very successful with its performance so far—far better than the international community, I would say.

  Q14 Mr Colman: You are describing a situation where you appear to blame the Government of Sudan for everything that has happened, yet at the beginning of this meeting this afternoon you were talking about the fact that the rebel movements had taken up arms against the government to the country two years ago. In the south there has been a terrible war that has gone on for some 30 years, many hundreds of thousands, nay millions of people have died in that war of 30 years. Darfur was at peace. Is there a responsibility for the rebels who have destroyed that peace rather than perhaps what you keep emphasising, which is that it is the Government of Sudan who has destroyed that peace in Darfur?

  Dr Baldo: I would beg to differ with the appreciation that Darfur was at peace. The origin of this conflict goes back to the 1980s and since then Darfur has not known peace. It has been living in a situation of destabilisation and of violence that has received little attention. Particularly the communities of Darfur, the Massaleit and the Zaghawa, whose sons rose with this rebellion, have been subject to constant attacks by marauding nomadic groups of Arab origin that have been, in many cases, armed and recruited into government supported militias, and whenever this community complained to local garrisons, to policemen, to local officials of the Government of Sudan they did not receive the attention or the protection they felt that they were entitled to. The response has been the Darfur insurgence. That being said, I would never claim that the rebels do not bear a share of the responsibility. In particular over the last few weeks there have been signs of the collapse or even in some cases loss of control and command by the Sudan Liberation Army—and that is very worrying—leading to incidences, as I was saying, of hostage taking, incidences of attacks on humanitarian convoys, incidences of livestock rustling from groups that are of Arab background. Therefore, in creating the risk of frontal communal fighting between Arabs versus non-Arabs that did not compose a substantive part of the conflict so far. But Darfur has been in turmoil for quite a long time and it is only now becoming known.

  Q15 Mr Colman: What do you believe the Government of Sudan should be doing to resolve this crisis?

  Dr Baldo: The Government of Sudan should really stop using ethnicity for political purposes, for ideological purposes. It should really become a neutral player amongst the communities of Darfur. It should disband the Janjaweed and all other ethnically recruited militias in Darfur and elsewhere in the country. It should hold officials of the Sudanese government in the security sector, who engineered this policy of the Janjaweed, responsible and end impunity overnight by really giving the example of holding the people who committed war crimes, for example, in Darfur responsible. It should cooperate with the efforts of the international community to deliver aid and assistance to the victims of the conflict. What the Government of Sudan needs to do is very clear, very logical, but the government is not doing it, it has its own calculations, it has its own objectives and the cost is what we are witnessing. That is to say, its own citizens are being attacked by its agents and by its own Army.

  Q16 Mr Bercow: I wonder, Dr Baldo, what your own assessment is both of the latest in the series of the United Nations Resolutions and of the two past, respectively, if I remember rightly, in July and September? I am sympathetic to that body of opinion that says the international community has done so far too little too late with too little effect. But I would be interested to know what your own assessment of that latest resolution is because Amnesty International, for example, described it as a big step backwards, focusing, as it has done, primarily on the North-South debate and largely ignoring the situation in Darfur. So the previous two resolutions upset quite a lot of people because they did not seem to do anything; they talked about additional action and appropriate measures being taken, if they wanted improvement, but they did not do anything immediately to bring the government to heel. But this latest resolution focuses on North-South. What does the ICG say about all that?

  Dr Baldo: The latest resolution in the meeting at Nairobi was meant really as a combination of carrots and sticks in terms of offering the government some incentives to conclude the peace process with the SPLA, the idea being that if that agreement was concluded it would offer a model for resolving other conflicts, particularly the Darfur conflict, which is really what is preoccupying us. We have called for the international community to approach the two problems at the same time, simultaneously. Therefore, to demand that the government on the one side conclude the comprehensive peace process with the SPLA but also on the other side to comply with all the obligations which it has signed to under the various UN Security Council resolutions in the previous two resolutions, and in the agreement they signed with Secretary-General Kofi Annan and his representative in July and August of this year, which the government is not doing. The government is not meeting any of its security obligations, it is not disbanding the Janjaweed and in fact it has incorporated them in Popular Defence Forces, border intelligence units, Popular Police, and therefore it continues to arm and support them. The government has not stepped in to end attacks on civilians and on internally displaced people of Darfur, and it is not meeting any of its obligations that it had formally signed to. We are demanding that the international community move beyond threats and firm words, to considering steps to hold the government accountable and implement some tough measures to draw the attention of Khartoum. In particular we believe that steps that could draw the attention of Khartoum should include the extension of the arms embargo that was decided against the non-governmental actors, the armed groups and therefore the rebels and the Janjaweed, should be extended to cover the government as well. We are calling for the African Union (AU) to be given the mandate to monitor compliance with that arms embargo. The government has signed to a flight ban drawn in their security protocol signed in Abuja on 9 November. There are no measures to enforce or to monitor compliance with that commitment. The African Union could take that role by, for example, being given the authority to be on government planes or military planes without notice, and this would help to encourage the government to abide by that commitment. We are calling for selective sanctions such as directing government officials who are responsible for the security measures that accompanied the counter-insurgency campaign in Darfur and generated all this level of suffering and of the violations of international humanitarian law. Therefore, the international community has yet to do a lot. The situation calls for it and if you do not pay attention, the current trend of escalation of the violence will only lead to further suffering and to further destruction of civilian life in Darfur.

  Q17 Mr Bercow: Can I briefly follow-up on that? From my own point of view it is extremely depressing to reflect that I came back from a short spell in Darfur nearly five months ago, and when I was there the government was anxious to assure us that the problem was not that grave and it was being contained and the situation was improving and that the situation was not their fault, and all the rest of it, and now we witness just how many lives have since been lost. So it is extremely frustrating that progress has been minimal, non-existent and in some cases even negative. What I would like to try to get from you, as you are an authority on the field, Dr Baldo, in so far as you can quantify it, is precisely how much impact each of the individual sanctions would be likely to have on the situation and how long it would take to have that impact? Some of us fear that things like travel bans and asset freezes, which are talked about often, which apply to all sorts of badly behaving regimes, including Zimbabwe and Burma and so on, are very often rather token gestures because there is no great enthusiasm on the part of the government to travel to Europe anyway and they often do not have very large personal assets in Europe. So, do you see what I mean, that these are token gestures in many cases unless you can explain to me otherwise. How long do you think it would take for an oil embargo on the one hand and an arms embargo very rightly extended to apply to the Government of Sudan on the other to bite, so that the people in the Government of Sudan, who are not going to be swayed by arguments based on morality, will be swayed by the application of ferocious pressure. How long will that take?

  Dr Baldo: It will take longer than we would wish for because of the reality of the situation in the Security Council with several permanent members having interests in the Government of Sudan, in the area of oil, for example, like China, like Russia in the area of sales of arms and commercial interests for those in the country. China has specifically threatened to veto oil sanctions if they came before the Security Council and I believe that is the record of China, to oppose and try to derail any attempt to impose sanctions anywhere in Africa. The latest sanctions that were voted by the Security Council on the Ivory Coast were done under direct request from the African Union and therefore China could not be more catholic than the Pope and they did not oppose this particular sanction. So that is the exception to the rule rather than a new trend of conduct from the Chinese. So I would believe that the Government of Sudan is of course very much aware of all this and it is doing its level best to really maintain the current status quo in terms of its status before the Security Council. But some of these measures would really draw the attention of the government in Khartoum because this is a regime that is really very pragmatic; it is really very business orientated to a degree which may not be known internationally, and it is not, for example, an irrational set of minds such as that of Iraq and Saddam Hussein or the Taliban in Afghanistan. They would listen and register if the international community says it is wrong, to address them, as we say, in a fashion that would bite. Therefore some of these measures are actually meant to draw that level of attention. Targeting officials—and they are in the very core of the system—who are responsible for this disastrous security policy in Darfur would really send a very strong message that there is no longer any tolerance for impunity, there is no longer any tolerance for those who engineer massive violations of human rights and hope to get away with it. This is what is happening. It may not be effective but it will send the right message to the government in Khartoum.

  Q18 Mr Colman: You mentioned in the case of the Ivory Coast that China had not vetoed the Security Council Resolution because the AU had actually asked for the Security Council to pass such a resolution. What do you think is holding back the AU from asking in the same way for action on Sudan? You have described the ineffectiveness of the situation. Nobody seems to be suggesting a direct intervention by the United States Army or the British Army or the French Army. This is an AU situation where the AU is calling the shots. I think that you are describing them as being somewhat ineffective in terms of mobilising not just the world community but also their own resources, to step in and to sort out the situation.

  Dr Baldo: The AU's mission and involvement in Darfur is one of the rare bright spots in this otherwise very gloomy situation. For the AU, Darfur is really a test ground. They want to prove the capability of their peace and security structures and it is the new mandate that was created after the transformation of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) into the African Union. Therefore they have a larger peacekeeping force, ceasefire and monitoring force on the ground, let us say, and this force has been expanded of late. They are also the mediators in political talks between the government and the Darfur rebels. I believe the AU is very keen to keep the Khartoum government engaged with the hope that they could, on the one side, contribute directly to the protection of civilians by their mere presence in Darfur, although they do not yet have many troops in Darfur, and, on the other side, help find a permanent political solution to the problem. If they call for sanctions, they may be feeling—and this is speculation about the thinking of the AU—that the government has shut them out or not co-operated at the security level and at the political level. Having said that, I am most surprised at the attitude of the UN Security Council in acting with such speed and resolve, after the bombing of the French peacekeepers in Ivory Coast, to impose sanctions, while in Darfur over 18 months there has been a massive campaign of killings without really decisive action of this nature being considered.

  Q19 Mr Colman: You have said that in the case of the Ivory Coast, the AU had asked the Security Council to take the sanctions, but in the case of Darfur, the AU have not asked the Security Council to take the actions. That is why nothing has happened.

  Dr Baldo: The Security Council has its own mind and could have taken the initiative, given the level of mass human rights violations in the country.


1   Ev 105 Back

2   Ev 149 Back


 
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