House of Commons - International Development

Select Committee on International Development Written Evidence

Further supplementary memorandum submitted by UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

1. INTRODUCTION

Timely and effective early warning analysis plays a key role in helping the United Nations and the broader international community to detect and prevent complex humanitarian crises before they occur. For the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and its humanitarian partners, early warning analysis is important not only to enable them to contribute to strategies to mitigate and prevent crises, but also to enable them to be better prepared to respond more effectively to them.

Ensuring that early warning triggers early action remains a key challenge. Despite the Secretary-General's repeated pledges to move the organization from a "culture of reaction to a culture of prevention", the UN has often failed to convert early warning into early action to prevent and mitigate conflict. Many Member States remain concerned that early warning and preventive action constitute an erosion of national sovereignty.

The recent report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change[120] reinforces this point. It flags an unwillingness to get serious about preventing deadly violence as "the biggest source of inefficiency in our collective security system." The report adds that failure to invest time and resources early in order to prevent the outbreak and escalation of crises leads to much larger and deadlier emergencies that are much costlier to handle later.

2. MECHANISMS FOR ALERTING THE INTERNATIONAL COMMMUNITY TO EMERGING CRISES

2.1. Security Council

The Security Council has adopted several resolutions relating to early warning and conflict prevention. Security Council Resolution S/RES/1366 (2001)[121] on the Prevention of Armed Conflict and General Assembly Resolution A/RES/57/337 (2003)[122], emphasize the Secretary General's role in bringing cases of "early warning or prevention" to the attention of the Council and "encourage the Security Council to continue to invite the office of the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator[123] and other relevant UN agencies to brief its members on emergency situations which it deems to represent a threat to international peace and security."

The need for early warning analysis is also stressed in Security Council Resolutions S/RES/1265 (1999)[124] and S/RES/1296 (2000)[125] on the Protection of Civilians, which invite the Secretary-General to bring to the Council's attention matters which may threaten the maintenance of international peace and security, including deliberate attacks on civilians and systematic and widespread violations of international humanitarian and human rights law in situations of armed conflict.

Despite these Resolutions, the ability of the Secretary-General or any of his senior officials to brief the Security Council on country-specific early warning situations has proved difficult, due to Member States sensitivities. Briefings by the Emergency Relief Coordinator (ERC) have been limited largely to existing humanitarian emergencies or issues relating to the protection of civilians in armed conflict.

2.2. ERC Early Warning briefings for Member States (Humanitarian Diplomacy)

In view of the difficulty of raising early warning issues in the Security Council, the ERC has taken the initiative to alert the international community to emerging crises through ad-hoc briefings to different groupings of Member States.[126] Most recently, on February 3, 2005, the ERC briefed ambassadors of the OCHA Donors Support Group on potentially emerging crises in Chad, Nepal, and Guinea. In each case, the ERC explained the underlying trends indicating why each country was at increased risk of humanitarian crisis, spelt out the potential consequences of inaction and provided concrete recommendations for follow-up action. The recommendations were varied and were targeted at mitigating possible causes of instability as well as declining humanitarian and socio-economic trends in these countries. As such, they included measures relating to political, human rights and humanitarian action.[127]

2.3. Framework Team (Prevention)

The Inter-Departmental Framework for Coordination on Early Warning and Preventive Action ("Framework Team", FT), created in 1995, is an informal inter-departmental mechanism that today involves 24 entities[128], including the Bretton Woods Institutions. OCHA reviews at risk countries with the Framework Team to ensure that the humanitarian perspective is reflected in strategies to mitigate and prevent conflict. While the Department of Political Affairs (DPA) continues to play a leading role in matters of conflict prevention, OCHA has a vested interest in the issue because of the resulting humanitarian consequences.

A recent independent evaluation of the Framework Team[129] concluded that while the Framework Team had done a commendable job in the area of UN coordination, its role and function needed to be more clearly differentiated from that of other committees that focus on crisis situations and member entities needed to be given the means to ensure more substantial and timely follow-up within the framework of strategies and approaches developed.

2.4. Inter-Agency Standing Committee (Preparedness)

The Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC),[130] which formulates humanitarian policy to ensure coordinated and effective humanitarian response to both complex emergencies and natural disasters, has established a Sub-Working Group dedicated to Early Warning and Contingency Planning. The IASC Sub-Working Group issues a quarterly Early Warning-Early Action report which aims to ensure that early warning triggers early action by linking specific minimum preparedness actions, such as contingency planning, to early warning alerts. The IASC has also developed an on-line Humanitarian Early Warning Service (HEWSweb) that seeks to provide early warning information on both natural hazards and complex emergencies.

2.5. OCHA's Early Warning Unit

To fulfill the tasks ranging from Security Council and Member State Briefings to inter-agency cooperation, as outlined above, OCHA has established a dedicated Early Warning Unit that aims to improve OCHA's ability to identify potential complex emergencies. The Unit produces in-depth country reports, bi-weekly early warning reports, one page alerts in response to rapidly deteriorating situations, and a quarterly global risk analysis. These products are used by senior decision makers in OCHA and the broader UN community.

3. AN OUTSTANDING CHALLENGE

3.1. Linking conflict Early Warning and Natural Disasters Early Warning

OCHA's efforts in promoting preparedness and prevention to reduce future vulnerability, as stated in its Mission Statement, are relevant to both Complex Emergencies and Natural Disasters. Yet, there are no common early warning mechanisms integrating both risks stemming from natural disasters and from complex emergencies. The Kobe Conference in January 2005, organised by OCHA's Inter-Agency Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), recognized the need to improve the link between the two areas.

February 2005