SUD20B
FURTHER
SUPPLEMENTARY
MEMORANDUM
SUBMITTED
BY
UN'S
OFFICE
FOR
THE
COORDINATION
OF
HUMANITARIAN
AFFAIRS
(OCHA)
EARLY
WARNING
SYSTEMS
1. Introduction
Timely and effective early warning analysis plays a key role in
helping the United Nations and the broader international community
to detect and prevent complex humanitarian crises before they
occur. For the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (OCHA) and its humanitarian partners, early warning analysis
is important not only to enable them to contribute to strategies
to mitigate and prevent crises, but also to enable
them to be better prepared to respond more effectively
to them.
Ensuring that early warning triggers early action remains a key
challenge. Despite the Secretary-General's repeated pledges to
move the organization from a "culture of reaction to a culture
of prevention", the UN has often failed to convert early
warning into early action to prevent and mitigate conflict. Many
Member States remain concerned that early warning and preventive
action constitute an erosion of national sovereignty.
The recent report of the High-level Panel on Threats,
Challenges and Change[1]
reinforces this point. It flags an unwillingness to get serious
about preventing deadly violence as "the biggest source of
inefficiency in our collective security system." The report
adds that failure to invest time and resources early in order
to prevent the outbreak and escalation of crises leads to much
larger and deadlier emergencies that are much costlier to handle
later.
2. Mechanisms for alerting the International Commmunity
to emerging crises
2.1. Security Council
The Security Council has adopted several resolutions relating
to early warning and conflict prevention. Security Council Resolution
S/RES/1366 (2001)[2]
on the Prevention of Armed Conflict and General Assembly Resolution
A/RES/57/337 (2003)[3],
emphasize the Secretary General's role in bringing cases of "early
warning or prevention" to the attention of the Council and
"encourage the Security Council to continue to invite the
office of the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator[4]
and other relevant UN agencies to brief its members on emergency
situations which it deems to represent a threat to international
peace and security."
The need for early warning analysis is also stressed in Security
Council Resolutions S/RES/1265 (1999)[5]
and S/RES/1296 (2000)[6]
on the Protection of Civilians, which invite the Secretary-General
to bring to the Council's attention matters which may threaten
the maintenance of international peace and security, including
deliberate attacks on civilians and systematic and widespread
violations of international humanitarian and human rights law
in situations of armed conflict.
Despite these Resolutions, the ability of the Secretary-General
or any of his senior officials to brief the Security Council on
country-specific early warning situations has proved difficult,
due to Member States sensitivities. Briefings by the Emergency
Relief Coordinator (ERC) have been limited largely to existing
humanitarian emergencies or issues relating to the protection
of civilians in armed conflict.
2.2. ERC Early Warning briefings for Member
States (Humanitarian Diplomacy)
In view of the difficulty of raising early warning
issues in the Security Council, the ERC has taken the initiative
to alert the international community to emerging crises through
ad-hoc briefings to different groupings of Member States.[7]
Most recently, on February 3, 2005, the ERC briefed ambassadors
of the OCHA Donors Support Group on potentially emerging crises
in Chad, Nepal, and Guinea. In each case, the ERC explained the
underlying trends indicating why each country was at increased
risk of humanitarian crisis, spelt out the potential consequences
of inaction and provided concrete recommendations for follow-up
action. The recommendations were varied and were targeted at mitigating
possible causes of instability as well as declining humanitarian
and socio-economic trends in these countries. As such, they included
measures relating to political, human rights and humanitarian
action.[8]
2.3. Framework Team (Prevention)
The Inter-Departmental Framework for Coordination
on Early Warning and Preventive Action ("Framework Team",
FT), created in 1995, is an informal inter-departmental mechanism
that today involves 24 entities[9],
including the Bretton Woods Institutions. OCHA reviews at risk
countries with the Framework Team to ensure that the humanitarian
perspective is reflected in strategies to mitigate and prevent
conflict. While the Department of Political Affairs (DPA) continues
to play a leading role in matters of conflict prevention, OCHA
has a vested interest in the issue because of the resulting humanitarian
consequences.
A recent independent evaluation of the Framework
Team[10] concluded that
while the Framework Team had done a commendable job in the area
of UN coordination, its role and function needed to be more clearly
differentiated from that of other committees that focus on crisis
situations and member entities needed to be given the means to
ensure more substantial and timely follow-up within the framework
of strategies and approaches developed.
2.4. Inter-Agency Standing Committee (Preparedness)
The Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC),[11]
which formulates humanitarian policy to ensure coordinated and
effective humanitarian response to both complex emergencies and
natural disasters, has established a Sub-Working Group dedicated
to Early Warning and Contingency Planning. The IASC Sub-Working
Group issues a quarterly Early Warning-Early Action report which
aims to ensure that early warning triggers early action by linking
specific minimum preparedness actions, such as contingency planning,
to early warning alerts. The IASC has also developed an on-line
Humanitarian Early Warning Service (HEWSweb) that seeks to provide
early warning information on both natural hazards and complex
emergencies.
2.5. OCHA's Early Warning Unit
To fulfill the tasks ranging from Security Council
and Member State Briefings to inter-agency cooperation, as outlined
above, OCHA has established a dedicated Early Warning Unit that
aims to improve OCHA's ability to identify potential complex emergencies.
The Unit produces in-depth country reports, bi-weekly early warning
reports, one page alerts in response to rapidly deteriorating
situations, and a quarterly global risk analysis. These products
are used by senior decision makers in OCHA and the broader UN
community.
3. An Outstanding Challenge
3.1. Linking conflict Early Warning and Natural
Disasters Early Warning
OCHA's efforts in promoting preparedness and prevention
to reduce future vulnerability, as stated in its Mission Statement,
are relevant to both Complex Emergencies and Natural Disasters.
Yet, there are no common early warning mechanisms integrating
both risks stemming from natural disasters and from complex emergencies.
The Kobe Conference in January 2005, organised by OCHA's Inter-Agency
Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
(ISDR), recognized the need to improve the link between the two
areas.
February 2005
1 "A more secure world: Our shared responsibility,"
Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change,
presented to the General Assembly on December 2, 2004, A/59/565 Back
2
Adopted by the Security Council at its 4360th meeting,
30 August 2001 Back
3
Adopted by the General Assembly on July 18, 2003 Back
4
The UN Emergency Relief Coordinator also acts as Under-Secretary
(USG) for Humanitarian Affairs and is the head of OCHA. [Note
by the editor.] Back
5
Adopted by the Security Council at its 4046th meeting, 17 September
1999 Back
6
Adopted by the Security Council at its 4030th meeting, 19 April 1999 Back
7
This function is mandated by Resolution A/RES/46/182 (1991), adopted
by the General Assembly at its 78th plenary meeting,
19 December 1991, in which the General Assembly requests the ERC
to provide "consolidated information, including early warning
on emergencies, to all interested Governments and concerned authorities." Back
8
Such briefings take place on a regular basis with the OCHA Donors
Support Group (ODSG), but also with the Humanitarian Liaison Working
Group (HLWG), the G77, and other groupings of Member States. Back
9
FT members are: DDA, DESA, DPA, DPKO, FAO, ILO, OCHA, OHCHR,
UNDP, UNESCO, UNHABITAT, UNICEF, UNHCR, UNIFEM, WFP and WHO.
The World Bank, the IMF, DPI, OSAA (Office of the Special Adviser
on Africa), UNEP, UNFPA, UNODC, and the SG's Executive Office
participate on a case-by-case basis. Back
10
The External Evaluation was commissioned by the Framework Team
and completed by Rajeev Pillay in August 2004 with funding from
the Governments of Sweden and the United Kingdom. Back
11
The Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) was established in
June 1992 in response to GA Resolution 46/182 that called for
strengthened coordination of humanitarian assistance. The IASC
provides a forum that brings together a broad range of UN and
non-UN humanitarian partners including UN humanitarian agencies,
IOM, three consortia of major international NGOs and the Red Cross
movement represented by ICRC and IFRC. Back
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