Select Committee on Northern Ireland Affairs Minutes of Evidence



Memorandum submitted by The Electoral Commission

1.  INTRODUCTION

  1.1  The Electoral Commission welcomes the opportunity to present further evidence to the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee on the new arrangements for voter registration in Northern Ireland introduced in September 2002. We believe voter registration is the lynchpin of the electoral system and changes in registration and in particular individual registration have potentially far reaching implications for the electorate and political parties alike. Consequently, the Commission has been keen to monitor developments in Northern Ireland in order to learn lessons for the future.

  1.2  Since the Electoral Fraud (Northern Ireland) Act 2002 became law in May 2002 the Commission has monitored its impact on voter registration. To date we have published two reports on the subject, one examining the impact of the legislation after one year and the other examining how the legislation worked at the Northern Ireland Assembly election held in November 2003. Copies of both reports have previously been circulated to the Committee and executive summaries of both are attached to this paper.

  1.3  More recently we commissioned PricewaterhouseCoopers to conduct further desk research examining the fluctuations in the register between September 2003 and May 2004. A summary of the research find ingsis set out in section three of this paper. We will be conducting further work in this area when the December 2004 register is published.

2.  THE ELECTORAL COMMISSION

  2.1  Following the enactment of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 (PPERA), The Electoral Commission was established on 30 November 2000 as an independent statutory body covering the whole of the United Kingdom. The Commission is headed by a Chairman with four other Commissioners. The Chairman and Commissioners do not have connections to any political party, nor is the Commission accountable to the Government. It reports directly to Parliament through a committee chaired by the Speaker of the House of Commons.

  2.2  The Commission is responsible for overseeing a number of aspects of electoral law, including the registration of political parties and third parties, monitoring and publication of significant donations to registered political parties and holders of elective office, and the regulation of party spending on election campaigns. The Commission also has a role in advising those involved in elections on practice and procedure and is required to report on the administration of every major election. However, unlike many electoral commissions outside the UK, the Commission does not have responsibility for maintaining and updating electoral rolls, employing electoral services staff, or conducting parliamentary or local elections.

  2.3  The Commission aims to:

    —  promote and maintain openness and transparency in the financial affairs of the UK's political parties and others involved in elections;

    —  review the administration and law of elections and encourage good practice;

    —  encourage greater participation in and increased understanding of the democratic process;

    —  ensure that the Commission is able to undertake the effeQtive conduct of a referendum;

    —  provide for electoral equality in each local authority area in England while also reflecting community identity and interests;

    —  carry out all the Commission's statutory functions impartially using resources efficiently, effectively and economically.

  2.4  In addition to the UK Headquarters in London, the Commission has three devolved offices serving Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The Commission's office in Northern Ireland has responsibility for delivering the corporate aims in the context of Northern Ireland. It is also able to ensure that the Northern Ireland dimension is fully represented in the strategic thinking and operational planning of the Commission. The focus of the office is very much on the relationship with political parties, developing and advising on electoral policy and practice and raising awareness of electoral matters. It does not have an operational role in maintaining the register of electors or conducting elections since this falls to the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland (EONI) and the Chief Electoral Officer. The Commission has a statutory duty to report on the administration of elections held in Northern Ireland (other than local elections) and its first statutory report as published in April 2004.

  2.5  The Commission's Northem Ireland office is located in Belfast and has five staff. Since its establishment the Commission has developed strong links with a range of stakeholders, including the political parties, the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland (EONI), the Chief Electoral Officer, the Northern Ireland Office, academics with an interest in electoral and political matters and the voluntary and community sectors.

  2.6  The Commission has also established an Assembly Parties Panel along the lines of the UK Parliamentary Parties Panel. The Panel meets on a quarterly basis and is chaired by the Commissioner with a specific interest in Northern Ireland. All parties represented in the Northern Ireland Assembly are members and its minutes are made public. The purpose of the panel is to facilitate discussion in areas of mutual interest between the political parties and The Electoral Commission. The Panel acts as a forum for sharing information on electoral matters and has been central to developing good working relationships with all the political parties. The Chief Electoral Office for Northem Ireland and his senior staff attend meetings of the panel.

3.  PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS UPDATE REPORT ON THE NORTHERN IRELAND ELECTORAL REGISTERS

  3.1  In addition to wide-ranging consultations with a cross-section of stakeholders, the report published by the Commission in December 2003 drew upon independent research reports designed to provide the Commission with a better understanding of how the new registration processes had affected the voter franchise in Northern Ireland.

  3.2  These independent research reports were commissioned in order to assist The Electoral Commission in meeting its statutory duty to keep under review and, from time to time, submit reports to government on electoral law and practice. As a continuation of this process, and to assist in continuing to monitor the trends in the electoral register, The Electoral Commission appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers to undertake further desk research on the trends and patterns in electoral registration in Northern Ireland. This is the first report to be prepared in this second stage of the desk research statistical analysis of the electoral register. It focuses on:

    —  The September 2003 register, which was the basis for the November 2003 Northern Ireland Assembly Elections, the first elections to make use of the new register.

    —  The February 2004 register, which was the second register compiled under the new system following an annual canvass.

    —  The May 2004 register, which was used for the June 2004 European Elections.

  3.3  The key issue addressed is the decline in the Northern lreland electoral register from a peak of 1,098,726 in May 2003 to 1,076,937 by May 2004. The framework within which this issue is addressed is the registration cycle, comprised of the annual canvass undertaken in autumn of each year followed by the rolling registration process for updating the register in the period between each annual canvass.

  3.4  The decline in the Electoral Register from May 2003 to May 2004 has occurred in the face of an increasing eligible population. Based on Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency's (NISRA) Mid-Year Population Estimates, the population aged 18+ is growing at about 0.7% per annum.

  3.5  When the change in the register is assessed from one registration cycle to another, the main finding is that the evidence points to an emerging downward trend in the electoral register. While the number of observations is limited, since the new system has only been in operation for a little over one and a half years, nonetheless the available "like-for-like" comparisons indicate that the register is falling by about 1.5-2% per annum.

  3.6  A similar trend can be seen in each of the 18 parliamentary constituencies, albeit the trend varies from -1% in a number of rural constituencies and those surrounding Belfast to -3 to -4% in the urban constituencies of Belfast and Foyle. There is therefore a clear urban-rural/suburban divide in the emerging trend in the electoral register.

  3.7  The emerging downward trend comprises two effects:

    —  the canvass effect;

    —  the rolling registration effect.

  3.8  The canvass effect is the more important of the two. The electoral register is compiled afresh each year, based on a canvass of the preexisting register. Inevitably, there will be some element of non-response, leading to a reduction in the Register. In the most recent annual canvass, the new February 2004 Register contained 2.6% fewer entries than the pre-existing September 2003 Register. Each of the 18 parliamentary constituencies also recorded a decline over the same period, as did 82%of the 582 Wards.

  3.9  Counteracting the canvass effect, but only partially, is the rolling registration bounce-back that typically occurs in the months immediately following the annual canvass. There is some evidence to suggest that the timing and magnitude of the bounce-back reflects a "looming election effect", whereby effort is expended by political parties to encourage people to register.

  3.10  The second important finding to emerge is that deprivation is only slightly correlated with the downward trend in the Register. Indeed, when other factors are controlled for, deprivation is not a significant influence on the trend in the Register. But this in turn owes much to the fact that the rolling registration bounce-back tends to be stronger in the more deprived areas, offsetting the negative correlation that appears to exist between deprivation and the annual canvass effect.

  3.11  The Northern Ireland registration rate is declining in tandem with the fall in the electoral register described above. When attainers and those living abroad are netted out of the Register, the estimated Northern Ireland registration rate was 84.8% in May 2004, representing a two percentage points reduction compared to the 87% achieved in September 2003.

  3.12  Though constrained by lack of more up-to-date population data, the findings by parliamentary constituency and the ward are broadly consistent with the analysis of the emerging trend in the electoral register. Thus, the registration rate at parliamentary constituency level has fallen more sharply in urban areas, notably Belfast and Foyle, than in other areas of Northern Ireland.

  3.13  While there have been shifts, the pattern of registration rates at ward level in May 2004 showed a considerable degree of stability when compared with previous registers.

  3.14  Unless it is rectified, the downward trend in the register has the potential of embedding itself structurally in the registration process. If the register is in decline, then the number that can be canvassed Will also tend to fall from one canvass to the next, thus reinforcing the cycle.

  3.15  Other findings from the research that have policy implications include the following:

    —  A consistent finding, both in this report and in the earlier July 2003 PricewaterhouseCoopers report, is that the use of a postal canvass is usually associated with an above-average reduction in the registration rate for the affected ward. In other contexts, notably survey research, reliance on postal returns tends to result in lower response rates compared to more direct methods.

    —  The analysis of attainers on the Register revealed a registration rate in the region of 20-25%for persons aged 17 at the conclusion of the annual canvass. Boosting this registration rate would help to increase the Register, as well as bringing young people into the system at an early age.

    —  As in the July 2003 PricewaterhouseCoopers report, deprivation was found not to exert a significant independent influence on the rate of change in the register. Nonetheless, this is largely because the rolling registration bounce-back tends to be greater in the more deprived areas, offsetting an above-average negative canvass effect. To the extent that this reflects a looming election effect, this finding would give rise to a concern that deprivation may yet emerge as a factor in registration process.

4.  THE ELECTORAL COMMISSION PUBLIC AWARENESS CAMPAIGNS

  4.1  Under Section 13 of PPERA, The Electoral Commission has a duty to promote the public awareness of electoral and democratic systems and therefore has a responsibility for ensuring that the electorate in Northern Ireland is aware of and understands the new registration process and what identification documents are required for voting at polling stations. In the context of Northern Ireland our public awareness campaigns to date have been information-based with a particular emphasis on the requirements for individual registration and photographic identification.

  4.2  The Commission's first public awareness campaign in respect of individual registration and photographic identification commenced in September 2002. It was multi-media in nature and included:

    —  television advertising;

    —  radio advertising;

    —  regional and local newspaper advertising;

    —  outdoor advertising;

    —  a dedicated freephone helpline number;

    —  a dedicated website (www.securevourvote.com);

    —  posters for schools, colleges and universities;

    —  a household leaflet distributed by EONI canvassers (available in a range of formats and languages).

  4.3  Following the annual canvass a further campaign promoting rolling registration and the requirement for photographic identification was conducted using television and radio advertising, regional and local newspaper advertising and outdoor poster advertising. The dedicated freephone helpline continued to operate until the middle of May and was terminated after the postponement of the 29 May Assembly elections. Altogether the Commission spent almost £1 million promoting the new arrangements for electoral registration and identification.

  4.4  Tracking research commissioned to test the effectiveness of the 2002 campaign was positive and a majority of those interviewed indicated that they found the advertising engaging and informative. A representative sample of the electorate was asked for its views on the changes to electoral registration before and after the Commission's public awareness campaign commenced in Autumn 2002. Prior to the campaign commencing, 15% were aware that changes were planned. Following the campaign nearly two thirds (63%) were aware of the planned changes. By April 2003, 79% were aware that changes had been made to the electoral registration and voter identification process. Overall the publicity campaign was reasonably effective in increasing public awareness of the new arrangements.

  4.5  Our public awareness campaign in respect of the election commenced soon after the date of the election was announced in October 2003. It was entitled the "turnout essentials" campaign and emphasised what documents were permissible to vote at the Assembly election. Another theme adopted in the advertising campaign was that of "No picture? No vote". The campaign was multi-media in nature and comprised:

    —  television advertising;

    —  radio advertising;

    —  regional and local newspaper advertising;

    —  outdoor advertising;

    —  a dedicated telephone helpline;

    —  information leaflet drop to 650,000 households;

    —  a dedicated website (www.securevourvote.com).

  4.6  This activity was supported by a range of public relations initiatives aimed at keeping the key messages of the campaign to the forefront of the electorate's mind in the run-up to the election. Altogether the Commission's public awareness campaign cost approximately £400K of which almost 75% was spent promoting the prescribed forms of photographic identification.

  4.7  Tracking research was again used to gauge the effectiveness of our campaign. Altogether 75% of those interviewed spontaneously recalled either seeing or hearing advertising about photographic identification. When asked to comment on the advertising 67% said they found it informative, 35% that it held their attention, 32% that is made them think and 30% that it was humorous.

5.  CONCLUSIONS

  5.1  The new system for voter registration in Northern Ireland has resulted in a more robust register, but with the potential to become less accurate with each annual canvass. A particular focus is needed on targeting hard to reach groups during the registration process. The Commission will be reviewing its strategy and contribution to this process.


 
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Prepared 15 December 2004