APPENDIX A
SR2002 PSA AND SDA PERFORMANCE
Could the Office provide a table setting out revenue
and capital resource consumption by PSA target for 2003-04?
The 2003-04 Resource Accounts are not yet complete
and audited. This information is unavailable at this time. The
Accounts are due to be published and laid by 31October 2004 and
will contain information on costs against PSA objectives.
Can the Office provide assurance that PSA targets
agreed under SR2004 will cover the full range of NIO objectives
and all directorates and executive agencies? Can the Office provide
further assurance that SR2004 PSA targets will include specific
levels of improvement required and a deadline for achievement
of this? Finally, could the Office provide an indication of the
changes planned to PSA targets under SR2004?
The content of the PSA is guided to a large
extent by HM Treasury. Treasury guidance states that PSA targets
should focus on key priorities within the Department and should
not be a comprehensive description of everything that a Department
does. The NIO has tried where possible to encompass all areas
of the departments responsibilities (including Directorates and
Agencies) within the PSA Objectives.
All targets now include specific levels of improvement
required and deadlines for achievement.
The SR2004 PSA targets were published on 12
July 2004 (command number 6238). The following is an indication
of the changes:
Target 1 SR2004
Target 1 in SR2002 has been amended to include
a specific level of improvement and a deadline for achievement
(3% increase in confidence by April 2008). Also, an additional
element has been added to the Target 1 (previously Target 2 in
SR2002) to increase the Catholic representation in the police
service to 30% by December 2010 (as proposed by Patten) with an
interim target of 18.5% by March 2006.
Target 2 SR2004
Target 2 was previously part 1 of Target 3 under
the SR2002 spending review. The Target has been amended to identify
specific levels of improvement required and a deadline for achievement
(3% increase in the confidence in the criminal justice system
throughout all parts of the community in Northern Ireland by 3%
by April 2008.)
Target 3 SR2004
Apart from some minor changes to the wording,
Target 3 was previously part 2 and 3 of Target 3 in SR2002.
The new wording in Target 3, specifies that
the Northern Ireland Office, working in conjunction with other
agencies, will:
reduce domestic burglary by 2% by
April 2005 and by 15% by April 2007;
reduce theft of and from vehicles
by 6% by April 2005 and by 10% by April 2007; and
by April 2008, reduce the rate of
reconviction by 5% compared to the predicted rate.
Theft from and theft of vehicles was previously
reported on separately but the second bullet above has been amalgamated
due to a change in Police recording of crimes. The target dealing
with reconviction rates (bullet 3 above) has been amended to identify
specific levels of improvement required and a deadline for achievement.
Target 4 SR2004
Target 4 in SR2002 has been amended to include
the actual cost per prisoner place targets and interim targets.
(ensure that the annual cost per prisoner place in Northern Ireland
falls to £82,500 by 2007-08 with interim targets of £86,290
for 2005-06 and £85,250 for 2006-07).
Why did the figures for burglary and vehicle crime
increase in the first full year of measurement (2002-03)? What
are the outturn figures for 2003-04?
The recorded crime figures for domestic burglary
and vehicle crime had all been on the increase in the years immediately
before the baseline year of 2001-02 was agreed. For example, between
1997 and 2001-02, recorded domestic burglary offences increased
by 21.9% and theft or unauthorised taking of a vehicle (including
attempts) rose by 34.8%.
There is no one factor that has contributed
to the increases in these areas. There are a range of factors
including:
introduction of new computer system;
change in Home Office Counting Rules;
the changes brought about by Patten,
which reduced the number of police and the level of experience
available; and
the community safety strategy had
been launched, but the crime prevention programmes being implemented
were taking time to impact on the figures.
The outturn figures for the three areas for
2003-04 are:
domestic Burglary8,944down
1.3% on baseline, and 11.6% on the previous year;
theft from a vehicle7,506up
14% on baseline, but only a 5.1% increase on the previous year,
compared to 8.45% from 2001-02 to 2002-03;
theft of vehicle (excluding attempts)
5,294down 41.2% on baseline, or 36.3% between 2003-04 and
2002-03; and
combined theft of and theft from
vehicle12,800down 17.9%.
Why are re-conviction rate targets still to be
formulated, despite these originally being scheduled for determination
by March 2002? Is work progressing on developing a robust predictive
model for future re-conviction rates to timescale? When can the
Committee expected to see performance reported against this target?
The SR2002 PSA required the NIO to set a target
by December 2002 for reducing future rates of reconviction. The
NIO wish to follow the Home Office "best practice" in
the measurement of performance by comparing observed reconviction
rates with corresponding predicted rates. A target was not set
within that timeframe due to the lack of a sufficiently large
pool of historic information. Although initial predictor tools
have been developed using reconviction data for adult males for
one year, these tools did not have the statistical strength required
to allow them to be used to predict future rates of reconviction.
Further work on developing a robust predictor tool is under way.
The following target was agreed in the SR2004:
Reduce the rate of reconviction for all offenders
punished by imprisonment or by community supervision during 2005
by 5% compared to the predicted rate, this reduction to be achieved
by 2007 and reported upon in 2008.
The initial predictor tools were developed using
reconviction data for adult males for one year. This included
the limitation of the analysis of a 40% sample of those prisoners
discharged from custody. These predictor tools did not have the
statistical strength required to allow them to be used to predict
future rates of reconviction. The current plan is to develop a
calibration sample that is based on three years data. This data
set will contain information on a much larger pool of offenders
by including offenders of all ages for both males and females.
The size of the data set for those discharged from custody will
also be increased substantially to a full population of all discharged
prisoners. The NIO are confident that the proposed way forward
will yield a much stronger predictor tool. As stated in the SR2004
this model will be available later in 2004 and will allow the
generation of a predicted reconviction rate for all offenders.
The system for measuring reconviction rates
is being developed by Northern Ireland Statistics and Research
Agency statisticians outposted to NIO. A Reconviction Rate is
defined as the percentage of offenders who were reconvicted, for
any offence, within two years from the date of their non-custodial
disposal or discharge from custody into the community. A database
has been built which provides information on reconviction rates
for the periods 1998, 1999, 2000. A predictor model is being developed
based on this information and the best practice evidence based
approach originally developed by the Home Office but being refined
to be Northern Ireland specific. This model will be available
later in 2004 and will allow the generation of a predicted reconviction
rate taking into account all those factors that affect all offenders.
Reconviction rates for the 2005 cohort should be available by
2008.
What is the performance for 2003-04 against
PSA target 4? Why have targets for 2004-05 and 2005-06 yet to
be agreed?
The Northern Ireland Prison Service met its
2003-04 cost per prisoner place target of £83,275 as agreed
with Treasury. The actual 2003-04 cost per prisoner place outturn
was £81,426. The 2004 Spending Review annual limits are to
be announced in the autumn.
The Office does not have an internal cost-effectiveness
target. How does it assess its own efficiency and effectiveness
and what have been the results of these assessments?
The last Office-wide cost-effectiveness/efficiency
target agreed with the Treasury arose from the SR2000 exercise
when the Department was tasked to live within a pre-determined
running cost ceiling over the SR period. This it did. Subsequently
in SR2002 it was agreed that the Department's prime measure of
efficiency would be encapsulated in the Cost per Prisoner Place
(CPPP) target set as part of our PSA. In SR2004 the Department's
efficiency targets were determined as a consequence of the Gershon
Review and it is now committed to delivering 2.5% efficiency savings
in each year of the SR period of which at least half will be cash
releasing. The programme of work required to deliver these efficiencies
will be monitored and reported upon to Treasury colleagues on
a regular basis.
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