Select Committee on Northern Ireland Affairs Written Evidence


APPENDIX A

SR2002 PSA AND SDA PERFORMANCE

Could the Office provide a table setting out revenue and capital resource consumption by PSA target for 2003-04?

  The 2003-04 Resource Accounts are not yet complete and audited. This information is unavailable at this time. The Accounts are due to be published and laid by 31October 2004 and will contain information on costs against PSA objectives.

Can the Office provide assurance that PSA targets agreed under SR2004 will cover the full range of NIO objectives and all directorates and executive agencies? Can the Office provide further assurance that SR2004 PSA targets will include specific levels of improvement required and a deadline for achievement of this? Finally, could the Office provide an indication of the changes planned to PSA targets under SR2004?

  The content of the PSA is guided to a large extent by HM Treasury. Treasury guidance states that PSA targets should focus on key priorities within the Department and should not be a comprehensive description of everything that a Department does. The NIO has tried where possible to encompass all areas of the departments responsibilities (including Directorates and Agencies) within the PSA Objectives.

  All targets now include specific levels of improvement required and deadlines for achievement.

  The SR2004 PSA targets were published on 12 July 2004 (command number 6238). The following is an indication of the changes:

Target 1 SR2004

  Target 1 in SR2002 has been amended to include a specific level of improvement and a deadline for achievement (3% increase in confidence by April 2008). Also, an additional element has been added to the Target 1 (previously Target 2 in SR2002) to increase the Catholic representation in the police service to 30% by December 2010 (as proposed by Patten) with an interim target of 18.5% by March 2006.

Target 2 SR2004

  Target 2 was previously part 1 of Target 3 under the SR2002 spending review. The Target has been amended to identify specific levels of improvement required and a deadline for achievement (3% increase in the confidence in the criminal justice system throughout all parts of the community in Northern Ireland by 3% by April 2008.)

Target 3 SR2004

  Apart from some minor changes to the wording, Target 3 was previously part 2 and 3 of Target 3 in SR2002.

  The new wording in Target 3, specifies that the Northern Ireland Office, working in conjunction with other agencies, will:

    —  reduce domestic burglary by 2% by April 2005 and by 15% by April 2007;

    —  reduce theft of and from vehicles by 6% by April 2005 and by 10% by April 2007; and

    —  by April 2008, reduce the rate of reconviction by 5% compared to the predicted rate.

  Theft from and theft of vehicles was previously reported on separately but the second bullet above has been amalgamated due to a change in Police recording of crimes. The target dealing with reconviction rates (bullet 3 above) has been amended to identify specific levels of improvement required and a deadline for achievement.

Target 4 SR2004

  Target 4 in SR2002 has been amended to include the actual cost per prisoner place targets and interim targets. (ensure that the annual cost per prisoner place in Northern Ireland falls to £82,500 by 2007-08 with interim targets of £86,290 for 2005-06 and £85,250 for 2006-07).

Why did the figures for burglary and vehicle crime increase in the first full year of measurement (2002-03)? What are the outturn figures for 2003-04?

  The recorded crime figures for domestic burglary and vehicle crime had all been on the increase in the years immediately before the baseline year of 2001-02 was agreed. For example, between 1997 and 2001-02, recorded domestic burglary offences increased by 21.9% and theft or unauthorised taking of a vehicle (including attempts) rose by 34.8%.

  There is no one factor that has contributed to the increases in these areas. There are a range of factors including:

    —  introduction of new computer system;

    —  change in Home Office Counting Rules;

    —  the changes brought about by Patten, which reduced the number of police and the level of experience available; and

    —  the community safety strategy had been launched, but the crime prevention programmes being implemented were taking time to impact on the figures.

  The outturn figures for the three areas for 2003-04 are:

    —  domestic Burglary—8,944—down 1.3% on baseline, and 11.6% on the previous year;

    —  theft from a vehicle—7,506—up 14% on baseline, but only a 5.1% increase on the previous year, compared to 8.45% from 2001-02 to 2002-03;

    —  theft of vehicle (excluding attempts) 5,294—down 41.2% on baseline, or 36.3% between 2003-04 and 2002-03; and

    —  combined theft of and theft from vehicle—12,800—down 17.9%.

Why are re-conviction rate targets still to be formulated, despite these originally being scheduled for determination by March 2002? Is work progressing on developing a robust predictive model for future re-conviction rates to timescale? When can the Committee expected to see performance reported against this target?

  The SR2002 PSA required the NIO to set a target by December 2002 for reducing future rates of reconviction. The NIO wish to follow the Home Office "best practice" in the measurement of performance by comparing observed reconviction rates with corresponding predicted rates. A target was not set within that timeframe due to the lack of a sufficiently large pool of historic information. Although initial predictor tools have been developed using reconviction data for adult males for one year, these tools did not have the statistical strength required to allow them to be used to predict future rates of reconviction. Further work on developing a robust predictor tool is under way.

  The following target was agreed in the SR2004:

  Reduce the rate of reconviction for all offenders punished by imprisonment or by community supervision during 2005 by 5% compared to the predicted rate, this reduction to be achieved by 2007 and reported upon in 2008.

  The initial predictor tools were developed using reconviction data for adult males for one year. This included the limitation of the analysis of a 40% sample of those prisoners discharged from custody. These predictor tools did not have the statistical strength required to allow them to be used to predict future rates of reconviction. The current plan is to develop a calibration sample that is based on three years data. This data set will contain information on a much larger pool of offenders by including offenders of all ages for both males and females. The size of the data set for those discharged from custody will also be increased substantially to a full population of all discharged prisoners. The NIO are confident that the proposed way forward will yield a much stronger predictor tool. As stated in the SR2004 this model will be available later in 2004 and will allow the generation of a predicted reconviction rate for all offenders.

  The system for measuring reconviction rates is being developed by Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency statisticians outposted to NIO. A Reconviction Rate is defined as the percentage of offenders who were reconvicted, for any offence, within two years from the date of their non-custodial disposal or discharge from custody into the community. A database has been built which provides information on reconviction rates for the periods 1998, 1999, 2000. A predictor model is being developed based on this information and the best practice evidence based approach originally developed by the Home Office but being refined to be Northern Ireland specific. This model will be available later in 2004 and will allow the generation of a predicted reconviction rate taking into account all those factors that affect all offenders. Reconviction rates for the 2005 cohort should be available by 2008.

 What is the performance for 2003-04 against PSA target 4? Why have targets for 2004-05 and 2005-06 yet to be agreed?

  The Northern Ireland Prison Service met its 2003-04 cost per prisoner place target of £83,275 as agreed with Treasury. The actual 2003-04 cost per prisoner place outturn was £81,426. The 2004 Spending Review annual limits are to be announced in the autumn.

The Office does not have an internal cost-effectiveness target. How does it assess its own efficiency and effectiveness and what have been the results of these assessments?

  The last Office-wide cost-effectiveness/efficiency target agreed with the Treasury arose from the SR2000 exercise when the Department was tasked to live within a pre-determined running cost ceiling over the SR period. This it did. Subsequently in SR2002 it was agreed that the Department's prime measure of efficiency would be encapsulated in the Cost per Prisoner Place (CPPP) target set as part of our PSA. In SR2004 the Department's efficiency targets were determined as a consequence of the Gershon Review and it is now committed to delivering 2.5% efficiency savings in each year of the SR period of which at least half will be cash releasing. The programme of work required to deliver these efficiencies will be monitored and reported upon to Treasury colleagues on a regular basis.


 
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