Supplementary memorandum submitted by
the Civil Aviation Authority
GROWTH RATES
1. As noted in the CAA's submission,[4]
over the last 10 years Belfast International airport has grown
at an average annual rate of 6.1% and Belfast City at 8.8%. However,
from a low base, the City of Derry airport achieved an average
annual growth of 20.8% between 1993 and 2003, from 31,000 passengers
in 1993 to nearly 206,000 in 2003.
2. Table 1 shows the composition of traffic
at the three Northern Ireland airports and the annual growth rates
of total traffic since 2000. Monthly traffic levels are shown
in Annex 1. Over the period covered by Table 1 the average annual
growths have been 8.5% at Belfast International, 13% at Belfast
City, and 10.2% at City of Derry. However, there have been significant
variations in the growth rate from year to year. Table 1 highlights
the strong growth at Belfast City for 2002, an increase which
began in November 2001, the beginning of the winter 2001-02 season
(see Annex 1). However, there were a number of particular changes
in 2001 and 2002 that had significant effects on both Belfast
airports, including BA's withdrawal of its Belfast International-Heathrow
service and bmi's transfer of many of its services from Belfast
International to Belfast City.
Table 1
TRAFFIC GROWTH AT NORTHERN IRELAND AIRPORTS
|
| Domestic
| Int Schedule | Int Charter
| Total |
|
|
Belfast International
2000 |
2,225,528 | 105,491
| 797,225 | 3,128,244
| |
| 2001 | 2,613,872
| 250,609 | 738,221
| 3,602,702 | 15%
|
| 2002 | 2,682,555
| 182,114 | 686,434
| 3,551,103 | -1%
|
| 2003 | 3,003,698
| 119,666 | 831,068
| 3,954,432 | 11%
|
| Year to August 2004 | 3,148,294
| 179,208 | 888,373
| 4,215,875 | 11%
|
Belfast City
2000 | 1,282,108
| 5,558 | 2,636
| 1,290,302 |
|
| 2001 | 1,188,229
| 842 | 2,902
| 1,191,973 | -8%
|
| 2002 | 1,885,622
| 1,081 | 2,989
| 1,889,692 | 59%
|
| 2003 | 1,960,352
| 9,959 | 3,725
| 1,974,036 | 4%
|
| Year to August 2004 | 2,001,120
| 16,132 | 688
| 2,017,940 | 2%
|
City of Derry
2000 | 157,972
| 1,624 | 3,108
| 162,704 | |
| 2001 | 152,550
| 30,036 | 4,933
| 187,519 | 15%
|
| 2002 | 166,383
| 23,984 | 8,779
| 199,146 | 6%
|
| 2003 | 162,025
| 28,974 | 14,506
| 205,505 | 3%
|
| Year to August 2004 | 178,029
| 30,067 | 24,223
| 232,319 | 15%
|
|
Source: CAA Annual Airport Statistics for 2000,
2001, 2003 and CAA Monthly Airport Statistics for the year to
August 2004.
CAA SURVEY DATA
ON CONNECTING
PASSENGERS IN
2001
3. The CAA last surveyed the Belfast airports in 2001
and the next survey is planned for 2006.
4. In 2001 the passengers using the Belfast airports
categorised by their country of residence and journey purpose
were as shown in Table 2. The table indicates that foreign residents
made up a relatively low share of the total and many foreign residents
arrived by a connecting flight over a UK airport.
Table 2
PASSENGERS AT BELFAST'S AIRPORTS IN 2001
|
| | UK Business
| UK Leisure | Foreign
Business
| Foreign
Leisure
| Total |
|
Belfast International
Domestic |
Local | 651,000
| 1,515,000 | 21,000
| 66,000 | 2,253,000
|
| Connecting
| 57,000 | 213,000
| 36,000 | 73,000
| 379,000 |
| Int Sched | | 29,000
| 88,000 | 31,000
| 61,000 | 209,000
|
| Int Charter | | 3,000
| 693,000 | 1,000
| 31,000 | 728,000
|
Belfast City
Domestic | Local
| 482,000 | 549,000
| 14,000 | 20,000
| 1,065,000 |
| Connecting
| 42,000 | 124,000
| 13,000 | 43,000
| 222,000 |
| | 1,264,000
| 3,182,000 | 116,000
| 294,000 | 4,856,000
|
|
Source: CAA OD survey at Belfast, 2001.
5. The 2001 survey indicated that about 600,000 passengers
used the domestic services at the Belfast airports and then took
an onward connecting flight at another airport in the UK.
CAA SURVEY DATA
ON CONNECTING
PASSENGERS IN
2003
6. In 2003 the CAA surveyed 11 UK airports with a service
to one or both of the two Belfast airports, namely Birmingham,
Bristol, Cardiff, Nottingham EMA, Liverpool, Manchester, London
City, Luton, Stansted, Gatwick and Heathrow. The surveys recorded
about 680,000 passengers connecting at these airports between
a Belfast flight and another, usually international, flight[5].
Table 3 categories these passengers by their country of residence
and journey purpose. Heathrow and Gatwick were the main connecting
airports but they were not perhaps as dominant as might have been
imagined.
Table 3
CONNECTING PASSENGERS ON ROUTES FROM BELFAST TO THE UK
IN 2003
|
| UK Business
| UK Leisure | Foreign
Business
| Foreign
Leisure
| Total | Share
|
|
| Heathrow | 38,795
| 163,074 | 51,342
| 73,430 | 326,642
| 48.3% |
| Gatwick | 10,390
| 102,409 | 4,004
| 9,214 | 126,018
| 18.7% |
| Stansted | 11,230
| 54,291 | 4,842
| 7,224 | 77,587
| 11.5% |
| Luton | 5,912
| 26,653 | 4,418
| 8,613 | 45,596
| 6.7% |
| Manchester | 6,711
| 27,395 | 4,216
| 4,001 | 42,323
| 6.3% |
| Liverpool | 824
| 21,693 | 929
| 4,548 | 27,994
| 4.1% |
| Birmingham | 697
| 17,251 | 847
| 3,439 | 22,234
| 3.3% |
| Nottingham EMA | 433
| 2,312 | 0
| 438 | 3,183
| 0.5% |
| London City | 1,315
| 160 | 208
| 63 | 1,747
| 0.3% |
| Bristol | 0 |
1,352 | 0
| 0 | 1,352
| 0.2% |
| Cardiff | 0 |
940 | 0
| 0 | 940
| 0.1% |
| Total | 76,308
| 417,532 | 70,805
| 110,970 | 675,615
| 100% |
|
Source: CAA OD Surveys at UK regional airports
and London, 2003.
Note: The connectors shown above are the average
of an estimate based on arrivals from Belfast and an estimate
based on departures to Belfast. The accuracy of the estimates
depends on the sample size and the estimates for airports such
as Cardiff must be treated with caution.
7. Table 4 summarises the main destinations which Belfast
passengers were connecting to or from. It should be stressed that
the confidence intervals around the survey estimates become wide
when the data is examined at this level of detail. Perhaps the
main conclusion that should be drawn is that the flights with
which the Belfast passengers connected were to a large number
of destinations and the traffic was quite widely spread. The development
of "self-interlining" between the flights of the no-frills
scheduled airlines is interesting to observe, for example the
flow between Belfast and Malaga over Liverpool in 2003.
Table 4
MAIN DESTINATIONS OF PASSENGERS FROM BELFAST CONNECTING
IN THE UK IN 2003
|
| BHX | BRS
| CWL | EMA
| LCY | LGW
| LHR | LPL
| LTN | MAN
| STN | Total
|
|
| Malaga | 0 |
236 | 110
| 0 | 0
| 2,669 | 2,022
| 14,599 | 1,084
| 15,593 | 2,003
| 38,315 |
| Paris | 110 |
0 | 0
| 479 | 0
| 71 | 20,054
| 5,032 | 9,763
| 1,231 | 0
| 36,741 |
| Barcelona | 2,364
| 94 | 0
| 0 | 0
| 3,136 | 5,637
| 556 | 8,465
| 166 | 4,741
| 25,160 |
| Alicante | 6,035
| 578 | 0
| 155 | 0
| 1,270 | 1,710
| 1,778 | 1,926
| 276 | 4,756
| 18,484 |
| Nassau | 0 |
0 | 0
| 0 | 0
| 13,065 | 367
| 0 | 0
| 0 | 0
| 13,432 |
| San Francisco | 0
| 0 | 0
| 0 | 0
| 0 | 13,432
| 0 | 0
| 0 | 0
| 13,432 |
| New York | 0
| 0 | 0
| 0 | 0
| 0 | 12,699
| 0 | 0
| 555 | 0
| 13,254 |
| Munich | 120
| 0 | 0
| 0 | 0
| 119 | 7,763
| 0 | 0
| 73 | 4,672
| 12,748 |
| Singapore | 0
| 0 | 0
| 0 | 0
| 3,112 | 9,634
| 0 | 0
| 0 | 0
| 12,747 |
| Toulouse | 360
| 0 | 691
| 0 | 0
| 8,043 | 2,409
| 0 | 0
| 371 | 0
| 11,873 |
| Nice | 0 |
0 | 0
| 257 | 0
| 1,982 | 3,890
| 1,109 | 3,371
| 417 | 595
| 11,620 |
| Madrid | 0 |
0 | 0
| 0 | 0
| 215 | 4,756
| 156 | 5,804
| 125 | 0
| 11,057 |
| Toronto | 0 |
0 | 0
| 0 | 0
| 2,324 | 8,019
| 0 | 0
| 481 | 0
| 10,824 |
| Chicago | 0 |
0 | 0
| 0 | 0
| 0 | 9,466
| 100 | 0
| 782 | 0
| 10,348 |
|
Source: CAA OD survey at UK regional airports
and London, 2003.
Note: The connectors shown above are the average
of an estimate based on arrivals from Belfast and an estimate
based on departures to Belfast. This data is subject to sampling
error and at this level of detail should be regarded as indicative.
Key: BHX—Birmingham, BRS—Bristol,
CWL—Cardiff, EMA—Nottingham EMA, LPL—Liverpool,
MAN—Manchester, LCY—London City, LTN—Luton,
STN—Stansted, LGW—Gatwick and LHR—Heathrow.
8. These figures do not include those passengers who
travel by surface to Dublin to take a flight.
9. Although it would be possible to split each of the
above flows by residence (UK/Foreign) and by journey purpose (business/leisure),
in practice the estimates would be subject to such a large sampling
error as to be worthless.
10. Since 2003 the network at Belfast has expanded (see
Table 5). Then there were non-stop services to Amsterdam, Toronto,
Cork and, for a time, Dublin. Now, new routes have been introduced
which will have captured some of the major short-haul connecting
flows shown in Table 4 for 2003.
Table 5 SCHEDULED PASSENGERS ON INTERNATIONAL ROUTES
FROM BELFAST (YEAR TO AUGUST 2004)
|
| Belfast International |
|
|
| Jet2 | Prague
| 16,178 |
| EasyJet | Malaga
| 14,640 |
| EasyJet | Alicante
| 14,436 |
| EasyJet | Amsterdam
| 86,462 |
| EasyJet | Paris
| 19,527 |
| EasyJet | Nice
| 10,826 |
| Belfast City | |
|
| Air Transat | Toronto
| 17,449 |
| AerArann | Cork
| 18,851 |
| BA(a) | Paris
| 1,717 |
| Jet Magic (a) | Cork
| 8,541 |
|
Source: CAA Airport Passenger-related Statistics, year
to August 2004.
Note: (a) No longer operated.
(b) Only routes with more than 1,000 passengers in the period.
(c) Other than the Amsterdam and Toronto services, these are
new routes and so the numbers do not represent full year figures.
(d) A new Jet2 service to Barcelona commenced in September
2004.
CONNECTION POSSIBILITIES
FROM UK AIRPORTS
OTHER THAN
HEATHROW—FURTHER
INFORMATION
11. The suitability of UK airports other than Heathrow
for connecting passengers depends on the richness of the network
at that airport in terms of destinations, frequency, schedules
and airlines.
12. Airlines may be an important element of this mix
for the following reasons. If a passenger transfers between the
services of two full-service airlines, these airlines should normally
have an interline agreement that will allow travel on a single
ticket (probably at a through fare that may be lower than the
sum of the two sector fares). This also allows baggage to be through
checked, and some back-up to be provided should the first flight
be delayed and the connection missed.
13. There may be additional benefits to the passenger
if he or she transfers between the services of the same full-service
airline, or between two full-service airlines within the same
alliance, as there is a greater likelihood that a lower fare will
be available than for two different full-service airlines not
within the same alliance.
14. If one or both sectors of travel is instead on a
no-frills airline, then the passenger may need to travel on two
separate bookings, at two separate fares.[6]
Thus they may lose some of the benefits in terms of checking baggage
through and other convenience (although they may benefit from
a lower overall fare from the no-frills airline).
15. By way of illustration, the following table shows
the options available on interlining airlines for a passenger
travelling from Belfast to Milan on Thursday 25 November 2004:
Table 6 UK AIRPORT CONNECTION POSSIBILITIES FOR
PASSENGERS TRAVELLING BELFAST TO MILAN
|
| Travel via | First airline
| Second airline |
Total journey time |
Arrival time in Milan |
|
| Birmingham | Flybe
| Alitalia | 3 hours 55 minutes
| 1930 (Malpensa) |
| Manchester | BA
| BA | 4 hours 20 minutes
| 1820 (Malpensa) |
| Heathrow | bmi
| BA | 4 hours 25 minutes
| 2045 (Linate) |
| Birmingham | Flybe
| Alitalia | 4 hours 35 minutes
| 1245 (Malpensa) |
| Heathrow | bmi
| BA | 4 hours 45 minutes
| 1645 (Malpensa) |
| Manchester | BA
| Alitalia | 5 hours 00 minutes
| 1300 (Malpensa) |
|
Source: Worldspan Computer Reservation System—17
November 2004 for travel on 25 November 2004.
Note: There are also likely to be other options using
other no-frills carriers, such as easyJet from Stansted to Linate,
and Ryanair from Stansted to Bergamo, some 30 miles or so from
Milan (total journey time Stansted to Bergamo: 5 hours 15 minutes).
However, because these services are generally not displayed in
Computer Reservation Systems such a journey requires the passenger
to construct the journey manually.
16. These options are of course only possible because
Milan is served from UK airports other than London. A trip to
Johannesburg, say, would require a connection at Heathrow or a
non-UK hub, because it is not served from other UK airports. Travel
to Singapore by contrast would be possible via Heathrow or Manchester
for a roughly comparable total journey time.
FARES PAID
BY CONNECTING
PASSENGERS
17. In the CAA survey, a subset of passengers are asked
about the price of their air ticket. Because of the difficulty
of obtaining reliable responses to this question from passengers
travelling on multi-sector journeys, only passengers who are starting
their air journey at the interview airport and who are making
a simple point-to-point journey are asked the question. Unfortunately
therefore, there is no fares information on the passengers shown
in Table 4.
19 November 2004
Annex 1
MONTHLY TERMINAL PASSENGERS AT NORTHERN IRELAND AIRPORTS
Monthly air passengers at Belfast International airport
|
| 2000
| 2001 | 2002
| 2003 | 2004
|
|
| January | 192,026
| 197,342 | 215,536
| 254,210 | 254,734
|
| February | 200,402
| 209,270 | 223,850
| 272,178 | 297,538
|
| March | 223,109
| 235,384 | 266,408
| 293,563 | 315,794
|
| April | 239,577
| 270,081 | 258,366
| 292,592 | 337,929
|
| May | 276,734
| 324,080 | 328,392
| 350,312 | 357,144
|
| June | 306,099
| 353,848 | 346,361
| 369,580 | 403,403
|
| July | 364,588
| 418,527 | 404,170
| 425,866 | 492,874
|
| August | 345,559
| 415,708 | 389,726
| 416,868 | 477,196
|
| September | 291,854
| 375,091 | 308,578
| 363,692 | |
| October | 253,975
| 344,974 | 291,458
| 345,238 | |
| November | 218,848
| 234,949 | 261,726
| 296,341 | |
| December | 214,566
| 223,448 | 256,532
| 273,992 | |
|
|
| Change | | 2001
| 2002 | 2003
| 2004 |
|
| January | | 3%
| 9% | 18%
| 0% |
| February | | 4%
| 7% | 22%
| 9% |
| March | | 6%
| 13% | 10%
| 8% |
| April | | 13%
| -4% | 13%
| 15% |
| May | | 17%
| 1% | 7%
| 2% |
| Jun | | 16%
| -2% | 7%
| 9% |
| July | | 15%
| -3% | 5%
| 16% |
| August | | 20%
| -6% | 7%
| 14% |
| September | | 29%
| -18% | 18%
| |
| October | | 36%
| -16% | 18%
| |
| November | | 7%
| 11% | 13%
| |
| December | | 4%
| 15% | 7%
| |
|
Source: CAA Monthly Airport Statistics.
Monthly air passengers at Belfast City airport
|
| Change | 2000
| 2001 | 2002
| 2003 | 2004
|
|
| January | 86,936
| 87,849 | 123,424
| 133,256 | 137,191
|
| February | 93,216
| 85,241 | 130,714
| 133,618 | 142,121
|
| March | 102,027
| 94,975 | 155,256
| 157,568 | 154,710
|
| April | 104,922
| 98,226 | 147,089
| 168,985 | 175,467
|
| May | 107,672
| 92,390 | 158,271
| 163,788 | 171,036
|
| June | 116,549
| 95,608 | 163,996
| 175,813 | 179,233
|
| July | 121,682
| 96,330 | 176,938
| 196,328 | 202,199
|
| August | 134,747
| 103,656 | 188,705
| 197,927 | 209,230
|
| September | 114,275
| 81,922 | 171,251
| 174,995 | |
| October | 110,964
| 86,775 | 168,281
| 167,946 | |
| November | 97,737
| 136,085 | 154,207
| 152,368 | |
| December | 97,437
| 132,916 | 151,560
| 151,444 | |
| | 2001
| 2002 | 2003
| 2004 |
| January | | 1%
| 40% | 8%
| 3% |
| February | | -9%
| 53% | 2%
| 6% |
| March | | -7%
| 63% | 1%
| -2% |
| April | | -6%
| 50% | 15%
| 4% |
| May | | -14%
| 71% | 3%
| 4% |
| June | | -18%
| 72% | 7%
| 2% |
| July | | -21%
| 84% | 11%
| 3% |
| August | | -23%
| 82% | 5%
| 6% |
| September | | -28%
| 109% | 2%
| |
| October | | -22%
| 94% | 0%
| |
| November | | 39%
| 13% | -1%
| |
| December | | 36%
| 14% | 0%
| |
|
Source: CAA Monthly Airport Statistics.
Monthly air passengers at City of Derry airport
|
| 2000
| 2001 | 2002
| 2003 | 2004
|
|
| January | 9,683
| 11,425 | 13,023
| 12,778 | 13,623
|
| February | 9,751
| 13,337 | 13,955
| 12,742 | 14,120
|
| March | 12,093
| 13,583 | 14,948
| 14,192 | 16,672
|
| April | 13,687
| 15,398 | 14,339
| 15,977 | 16,322
|
| May | 11,478
| 16,576 | 17,700
| 17,183 | 20,256
|
| June | 13,902
| 16,335 | 18,150
| 17,792 | 22,794
|
| July | 17,755
| 20,943 | 20,803
| 22,715 | 29,394
|
| August | 17,672
| 21,681 | 21,147
| 23,104 | 30,116
|
| September | 15,052
| 17,605 | 17,740
| 18,461 | |
| October | 15,882
| 16,501 | 16,873
| 18,518 | |
| November | 12,552
| 15,197 | 14,733
| 15,622 | |
| December | 13,197
| 8,938 | 15,735
| 16,421 | |
|
|
| Change | | 2001
| 2002 | 2003
| 2004 |
|
| January | | 18%
| 14% | -2%
| 7% |
| February | | 37%
| 5% | -9%
| 11% |
| March | | 12%
| 10% | -5%
| 17% |
| April | | 13%
| -7% | 11%
| 2% |
| May | | 44%
| 7% | -3%
| 18% |
| June | | 18%
| 11% | -2%
| 28% |
| July | | 18%
| -1% | 9%
| 29% |
| August | | 23%
| -2% | 9%
| 30% |
| September | | 17%
| 1% | 4%
| |
| October | | 4%
| 2% | 10%
| |
| November | | 21%
| -3% | 6%
| |
| December | | -32%
| 76% | 4%
| |
|
Source: CAA Monthly Airport Statistics.
4
The CAA's submission stated that the average annual growth rate
at the two Belfast airports taken together was 7.9% a year. During
the preparation of this supplementary paper, it was noted that
this was an error and that the correct figure is 7%. Back
5
It should be noted that the CAA survey only interviews departing
passengers. It is usual practice to examine the characteristics
of passengers on this basis. Thus the proportion of connecting
passengers of the Belfast City-Heathrow service quoted in the
CAA submission was based on the proportion of passengers departing
from Heathrow to Belfast City who had arrived at Heathrow by air.
Since the flow of connecting passengers (say, passengers from
Belfast to Paris via the UK as compared with passengers travelling
from Paris to Belfast via the UK) might be directionally different,
a more complex estimate has been made here by taking the average
of the normal estimate and one based on the number of passengers
on all other routes at the interview airport who had flown in
from a Belfast airport. This gives a slightly higher number of
connectors at Heathrow than the one based purely on departures
to Belfast. Back
6
This may depend on the airline in question-for example Flybe,
although considered a "no-frills" airline, does allow
for interlining. Back
|
