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9 Nov 2005 : Column 615W—continued

Schools (Hemel Hempstead)

Mike Penning: To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Skills how many pupils left school at the age of 16 years with fewer than five A*-C GCSE grades in (a) Hemel Hempstead constituency and (b) Hertfordshire in each of the last five years. [25566]

Jacqui Smith: The information requested is given in the following table.
Percentage of 15-year-olds⁽²⁵⁾ achieving less than five A*-C grades at GCSE and Equivalent⁽²⁶⁾

	Hemel Hempstead parliamentary constituency	Hertfordshire local authority
2000	52.7	44.6
2001	56.8	43.7
2002	54. 1	43.3
2003	54.6	41.5
2004(27)	51.6	41.9

⁽²⁵⁾ Pupils aged 15 at the beginning of the academic year (i.e. 31 August).
⁽²⁶⁾ Figures are for GCSE and Equivalent qualifications for 2004. All previous years are for GCSE/GNVQ only.
⁽²⁷⁾ 2004 is the latest year for which figures are available at both parliamentary constituency and local authority level.



 
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Science

Mrs. Dorries: To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Skills how many students have gained (a) an A-Level, (b) an AS Level and (c) a GCSE in (i) biology or human biology, (ii) chemistry and (iii) physics in each year since 1997, broken down by grade; and if she will make a statement. [22928]

Jacqui Smith [pursuant to the reply, 2 November 2005, Official Report, c. 1205–05]: There was an error with the rounding in the A-Level table.
(a) A level examination results of 16 to 18-year–old⁽²⁸⁾ students by grade Thousand

	A	B	C	D	E	Other(30)	A-E passes	Total(33)
Biological sciences
1997	7.02	9.35	9.17	8.5	7.01	6.55	41.05	47.60
1998	7.93	9.57	9.46	8.67	7.08	6.18	42.71	48.90
1999	8.21	9.07	9.3	8.44	6.6	5.57	41.62	47.19
2000	8.19	9.16	9.19	8.17	6.44	5.04	41.15	46.19
2001	8.32	8.95	8.87	7.59	6.11	4.75	39.85	44.59
2002	9.66	8.88	8.99	8.18	6.17	3.53	41.87	45.41
2003	9.48	9.15	8.96	7.68	5.93	2.71	41.2	43.9
2004	9.96	9.48	9.19	7.69	5.58	2.34	41.9	44.24
2005(29)	10.52	9.98	9.45	7.93	5.7	2.31	43.57	45.88
Chemistry
1997	7.78	7.73	6.69	5.39	4.34	4.50	31.93	36.43
1998	8.77	7.78	6.94	5.48	4.10	4.04	33.07	37.10
1999	8.88	7.74	6.76	5.34	3.76	3.36	32.48	35.83
2000	9.03	7.82	6.58	5.19	3.52	3.15	32.14	35.29
2001	8.98	7.43	6.30	4.77	3.52	2.87	31.01	33.87
2002	9.13	7.5	6.20	4.71	3.17	1.61	30.71	32.32
2003	9.06	7.52	5.89	4.42	2.95	1.23	29.83	31.07
2004	9.76	7.85	6.13	4.43	2.91	1.06	31.07	32.13
2005(29)	9.9	8.30	6.39	4.64	2.92	1.16	32.15	33.31
Physics
1997	6.21	6.21	5.25	4.5	3.28	3.33	25.45	28.78
1998	6.80	6.15	5.54	4.61	3.37	3.21	26.46	29.67
1999	7.21	5.93	5.55	4.55	3.35	2.96	26.59	29.55
2000	7.1	5.61	5.17	4.27	3.19	2.84	25.35	28.19
2001	7.04	5.61	5.17	4.13	3.23	2.86	25.17	28.03
2002	7.49	5.69	5.16	4.49	3.26	1.77	26.09	27.86
2003	7.21	5.51	4.87	4.19	3.11	1.39	24.89	26.28
2004	7.1	5.12	4.71	3.78	2.72	1.18	23.43	24.61
2005(29)	6.92	5.15	4.48	3.75	2.72	1.17	23.01	24.18

 
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(b) AS level examination results of 16 to 18-year-old⁽²⁸⁾ students by grade Thousand

	A	B	C	D	E	Other(30)	A-E passes	Total(33)
Biological sciences
2001	9.0	8.5	9.1	8.7	7.1	8.5	42.4	50.9
2002	9.3	8.3	8.9	8.7	7.8	10.1	42.9	53.0
2003	8.5	8.2	9.0	9.3	9.1	11.4	44.1	55.4
2004	8.4	8.7	9.3	9.6	9.0	11.2	45.0	56.2
2005(29)	8.2	8.8	9.8	9.6	9.2	11.3	45.7	56.9
Chemistry
2001	7.7	6.7	6.3	5.3	3.9	4.8	30.0	34.8
2002	7.4	6.3	6.3	5.8	4.8	5.5	30.6	36.1
2003	7.4	6.5	6.5	6.2	5.2	6.0	31.9	37.9
2004	7.2	6.6	6.7	6.3	5.4	6.5	32.1	38.6
2005(29)	7.3	7.1	7.0	6.4	5.6	6.7	33.4	40.1
Physics
2001	6.7	5.4	5.4	4.6	3.6	4.5	25.7	30.1
2002	6.6	5.3	5.3	4.7	4.0	5.4	25.9	31.2
2003	6.1	4.9	5.0	4.6	4.3	5.4	25.0	30.4
2004	5.9	4.8	5.0	4.7	4.1	5.4	24.5	29.9
2005(29)	5.6	4.8	4.9	4.6	4.0	5.2	23.9	29.2

(c) GCSE examination results of 15-year–old⁽²⁸⁾ pupils by grade Thousand

	A*	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	U(31)	X(32)	Total(33)
Biological sciences
1997	4.4	9.8	11.3	6.7	2.4	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.2	0.1	36.6
1998	4.7	10.6	10.6	7.6	2.8	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.1	37.9
1999	5.7	10.4	11.0	7.5	2.8	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.0	38.8
2000	5.7	10.9	10.8	7.8	2.8	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.0	39.4
2001	6.7	10.8	11.0	7.9	2.8	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	40.5
2002	6.8	11.2	11.2	7.5	2.6	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	40.6
2003	7.2	11.8	11.7	8.3	3.0	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.1	43.6
2004	8.0	12.7	11.5	8.1	2.9	0.8	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.0	44.8
2005(29)	8.5	13.5	12.0	8.6	3.1	0.8	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0	47.5
Chemistry
1997	5.5	8.2	10.5	7.3	2.2	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.1	35.1
1998	5.4	10.2	10.1	7.1	2.4	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	36.6
1999	6.3	10.2	9.9	7.3	2.7	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	37.7
2000	6.4	10.3	9.8	7.4	2.8	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.0	37.7
2001	6.6	10.8	9.8	7.6	2.8	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.0	38.8
2002	6.9	10.8	9.7	7.7	2.8	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	39.1
2003	7.7	11.1	10.3	8.6	3.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	42.0
2004	8.8	11.6	10.4	8.2	3.0	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	43.1
2005(29)	9.6	11.8	11.0	8.8	3.0	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	45.1
Physics
1997	5.3	8.4	10.4	6.6	2.2	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.1	34.5
1998	6.3	9.3	9.4	7.2	2.7	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.0	36.2
1999	7.4	9.5	9.2	7.2	2.7	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.0	37.2
2000	6.9	10.1	9.5	7.1	2.8	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	37.5
2001	7.1	10.5	9.4	7.6	2.8	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	38.4
2002	7.6	10.5	9.1	7.6	2.8	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	38.7
2003	7.9	11.1	9.8	8.1	3.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	41.1
2004	8.7	11.8	10.1	8.1	2.8	0.6	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	42.5
2005(29)	9.4	12.2	11.0	8.2	2.9	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	44.7

⁽²⁸⁾ Age at the beginning of the academic year (i.e. 31 August).
Figures for 2005 are provisional. All other figures are final.
⁽²⁹⁾ Includes ungraded, no award (absent/declined) and pending.
⁽³⁰⁾ Grade U refers to pupils who are ungraded or unclassified.
⁽³¹⁾ Grade X refers to pupils who were absent or results pending.
⁽³²⁾ As numbers are rounded, figures in each row will not sum exactly to row totals.





 
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Secondary School Pupils

Mr. Davey: To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Skills what estimate she has made of the number of secondary school pupils in (a) England and (b) each region for each year between 2006 and 2016 (i) in total and (ii) broken down by (A) 10 to 14 and (B) 15 to 19-year-olds. [25359]

Jacqui Smith: The information requested is as follows:

(a) National projections for the number of secondary school age pupils in maintained schools (secondary, special and Pupil Referral Units (PRUs)) are shown in the following table.
Pupil projections (full-time equivalent)—number at January, aged at start of the school year

	Maintained secondary and special schools and PRUs
	Aged 10 to 14	Aged 15 to 19
2006	2,395,900	949,600
2007	2,343,600	953,500
2008	2,290,400	952,200

Beyond 2008 the degree of uncertainty in making projections increases substantially particularly when looking at separate types of school and when considering future levels of participation beyond age 16.

For all schools (also including academies and the independent sector) for ages 11 to 15 the projected numbers of pupils are:

	Number
2006	3,242,800
2007	3,205,300
2008	3,153,500
2009	3,117,700
2010	3,089,000
2011	3,054,200
2012	3,017,600
2013	2,979,200
2014	2,924,700
2015	2,907,600
2016	2,915,500

We know that the overall number of 16 to 19-year-olds will fall beyond 2008. At the same time the Department is committed to increasing 16 to 19 participation to 90 per cent. of 17-year-olds by 2015, as set out in the 14 to 19 Education and Skills White Paper published in February 2005. Such an increase in participation would offset the falling number of 16 to 19-year-olds so we might expect the number of 16 to 19-year-olds in schools to remain broadly constant between 2008 and 2016.

(b) Pupil projections by region are not available for the time period requested. The Department has recently released pupil number projections at local education authority level for 2006 and 2007 which it plans to use in setting authorities' Dedicated Schools Grant guaranteed units of funding. These projections are for all children aged three to 15 funded by authorities, and
 
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are not split by educational setting. They can be seen at the following address: http://www.teachernet.gov.uk/docbank/index.cfm?id=9224

To improve comparability between the national projections given above and the pupil number projections used in setting authorities' DSGs the following table provides projections for the pupils aged 11 to 15 and 16 to 19 in maintained secondary and special schools and PRUs, also including a few children aged 11 or over still in primary school.
Pupil projections (full-time equivalent)— number at January, aged at start of the school year

	Maintained primary, secondary and special schools and PRUs
	Aged 11 to 15	Aged 16 to 19
2006	2,975,500	350,900
2007	2,926,700	351,900
2008	2,866,200	356,900

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