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Population (Gloucestershire)

Mr. Drew: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what the population of (a) each Gloucestershire district and (b) each ward in the Stroud district was according to (i) figures from the 2001 census, (ii) most recent electoral rolls and (iii) most recent figures for health services users; and what projections he has made for the next five years. [55426]

John Healey: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician who has been asked to reply.

Letter from Colin Mowl, dated 8 March 2006:

The National Statistician has been asked to reply to your question regarding the population of (a) each Gloucestershire District and (b) each ward in the Stroud district according to (i) figures from the 2001 Census, (ii) most recent electoral rolls, and (iii) most recent figures for health service users; and what projections have been made for the next five years. I am replying in her absence. (55426)

The tables attached provide the information you have requested. Data for Gloucestershire Districts are shown in Table 1 and Table 2. Data for wards in Stroud district are shown in Table 3.

ONS publishes annual mid-year population estimates. The latest estimates are for mid-2004 and are given in Table 1. These mid-year population estimates are the best estimates of the resident population in an area. They are based on Census data taking into account ageing of the population and are adjusted for births, deaths, and net migration. Further information on the methodology can be found at: www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=575.

Population projections for each district in Gloucestershire, for mid-2005 to mid-2011, are also given in Table 1. These projections are based on the mid-2003 population estimates and are the latest population projections available. They assume that trends in fertility, mortality and migration at the time of the mid-2003 population estimate will continue into the future.

Electoral rolls provide counts of the number of people registered to vote. Local/European electorate and Parliamentary electorate counts for districts in Gloucestershire can be found in Table 2. The 2004 figures are given for comparison with population estimates and the 2005 figures are the latest available data. It should be noted that the number of people eligible to vote is not the same as the resident population aged 18 and over. There are a number of reasons for this. For example not everyone who is usually resident is entitled to vote (foreign citizens from outside of the EU and Commonwealth, prisoners, etc. are not eligible), some people do not register to vote and people who have more than one address may register in more than one place.

Further, there is inevitably some double counting of the registered electorate as electoral registration officers vary in how quickly they remove people from the registers after they have moved away from an area or after they have died. These factors have a differential impact from area to area.

The number of people registered with a GP, living in each district in Gloucestershire, in July 2004, can also be found in Table 2. It should also be noted that patient register counts differ from estimates of the usually resident population for a number of reasons.

Patient registers include people who are in the country for at least three months, whereas population estimates are based on a usual residence definition requiring a stay of 12 months or more. The patient registers exclude individuals who are ineligible to be registered with a GP. People may be on a patient register after having left the country and not deregistered with their GP; similarly people may have moved to another area and not re-registered. Some patients may have more than one NHS number e.g. they may have been issued a temporary number for a short period. Again, these factors have a differential impact from place to place.

 
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Ward data are shown in Table 3; the points set out above also apply to wards. However, there are some further points to note for wards.

The most recent population estimates for wards are for mid-2002. The closest available geography to current electoral wards, for which population estimates are available, is Census Area Statistics (CAS) wards. This geography was created for outputs from the 2001 Census and is based mainly on 2003 electoral wards. The CAS ward level population estimates have been published with the status of experimental statistics". Therefore, the
 

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estimates, and figures derived from them, should be treated with some care. The margin of confidence for population estimates is proportionately larger at ward level than at local authority level.

The ONS does not produce projections of population at ward level.

Table 3 contains CAS ward electorate counts for December 2002 and 2004 as well as patient register figures for July 2002 and July 2004. The 2002 figures are given for comparison with population estimates and 2004 are the latest available data.

Finally, the local government electorate is definitionally closer to the population estimates; however these data are not available at ward level. Hence, the Parliamentary electorate is shown.

Table 1: Mid-2004 Population Estimates and mid-2005 to mid-2011 Population Projections (2003-based) Thousand

	Population Estimate	Population Projections(14)
	Mid-2004	Mid-2005	Mid-2006	Mid-2007	Mid-2008	Mid-2009	Mid-2010
Cheltenham	110.9	110.6	110.9	111.2	111.5	111.8	112.2
Cotswold	82.7	82.8	83.3	83.8	84.3	84.8	85.3
Forest of Dean	80.7	81.0	81.4	81.9	82.4	82.9	83.4
Gloucester	110.8	111.4	112.1	112.7	113.4	114.0	114.7
Stroud	109.5	109.9	110.5	111.0	111.6	112.1	112.7
Tewkesbury	78.2	78.9	79.6	80.2	80.8	81.4	82.0

⁽¹⁴⁾ The population projections shown in this table are taken from the 2003-based subnational population projections, the latest set of projections currently available. Therefore they may not be consistent with the 2004 mid-year estimate presented in the first column.
Source:
Office for National Statistics





Table 2: Districts in Gloucestershire: Electorate counts and Patient Register counts

	Local Government Electors(15)	Parliamentary Electors(16)	Local Government Electors(15)	Parliamentary Electors(16)	Patient Register July 2004
	1 December 2004	1 December 2004	1 December 2005	1 December 2005	July 2004
Cheltenham	85,744	85,064	86,468	85,559	113,549
Cotswold	64,891	64,512	64,348	63,968	84,022
Forest of Dean	63,804	63,637	62,966	62,815	82,753
Gloucester	82,528	82,141	84,484	83,953	115,888
Stroud	86,692	86,136	85,432	84,909	113,893
Tewkesbury	61,776	61,544	62,312	62,055	79,972

⁽¹⁵⁾ Local government electors are those people who are entitled to vote in local elections and who meet the residence qualification. These include Peers and European citizens but exclude overseas voters.
⁽¹⁶⁾ Parliamentary electors are those people who are entitled to vote in parliamentary elections at Westminster and who meet the residence qualification. Those include overseas voters but exclude Peers and European citizens.
Source:
Office for National Statistics




Table 3: CAS Wards in Stroud District: Population Estimates, Electorate counts, and Patient Register counts

Ward Name	Population Estimate Mid-2002	Electorate December 2002	Electorate December 2004	Patient Register July 2002	Patient Register July 2004
Amberley and Woodchester	2,100	1,755	1,722	2,216	2,191
Berkeley	4,100	3,338	3,320	4,115	4,156
Bisley	2,100	1,756	1,774	2,067	2,099
Cainscross	6,700	5,179	5,185	6,826	7,026
Cam East	4,100	3,310	3,300	4,185	4,204
Cam West	4,200	3,313	3,232	4,275	4,251
Central	1,700	1,409	1,471	1,801	1,912
Chalford	6,300	5,003	4,961	6,622	6,679
Coaley and Uley	2,300	1,870	1,859	2,345	2,350
Dursley	5,900	4,670	4,568	6,073	6,308
Eastington and Standish	1,900	1,515	1,459	1,965	1,934
Farmhill and Paganhill	2,200	1,738	1,738	2,266	2,290
Hardwicke	4,700	3,651	3,742	4,725	4,896
Kingswood	2,000	1,580	1,559	2,189	2,211
Minchinhampton	4,000	3,410	3,429	4,383	4,497
Nailsworth	6,100	4,907	4,936	6,518	6,589
Over Stroud	1,800	1,427	1,451	1,811	1,845
Painswick	4,000	3,420	3,467	4,281	4,398
Rodborough	4,400	3,521	3,500	4,682	4,668
Severn	4,500	3,591	3,672	4,622	4,789
Slade	2,300	1,674	1,600	2,532	2,527
Stonehouse	7,700	5,717	5,801	7,901	8,058
The Stanleys	4,200	3,459	3,354	4,333	4,296
Thrupp	2,300	1,810	1,786	2,402	2,428
Trinity	2,200	1,625	1,551	2,108	2,051
Uplands	2,100	1,759	1,720	2,235	2,244
Upton St. Leonards	2,100	1,803	1,814	2,237	2,241
Vale	1,700	1,443	1,484	1,829	1,893
Valley	2,100	1,695	1,624	2,202	2,287
Wotton-under-Edge	6,400	5,091	5,057	6,474	6,575

Notes:
1. The mid-2002 ward population estimates are consistent with the published mid-2002 local authority estimates (September 2004 revisions), and have been rounded to the nearest hundred.
2. The electorate counts are taken from the statutory RPF 29 returns.
Source:
Office for National Statistics





 
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