Further memorandum from the Ministry of
Defence
A note to explain the review (or reviews) taking
place in relation to the Met Office, including the questions being
asked (or terms of reference, as far as they exist), why DARA
is being excluded, what alternative business models would be considered
for MoD agencies and what are the timeframes for completing the
review and making decisions. (Qq 212—223, Q 242, Qq 292-295).
In preparation for the Comprehensive Spending
Review, and as part of a wider examination of defence support
services, the structure and ownership of MoD's Trading Funds[1]
are being re-examined with a view to determining whether there
is a case for change. It is misleading to describe this work as
a `review', as this has connotations of a formal study, against
defined terms of reference, consuming significant effort, and
potentially leading to firm recommendations for change. The current
examination of Trading Funds can better be thought of as precursor
work to determine whether there is value in undertaking any reviews
of this kind, and if so what their terms of reference should cover,
what options should be examined, how much resource should be applied,
over what timescale, and what outputs should be sought.
In varying degrees, all Defence Trading Funds
deliver vital support services (on a non-competed basis) to MoD
and other departments, and also generate `shareholder value' to
the taxpayer through full commercial trading. The broad purpose
of the examination currently in hand is to assess whether there
is any evidence to suggest that a change in structure, boundaries,
status or ownership might help any of the Trading Funds to perform
better against either or both of these general aims.
Prior to a cross-government review by the Office
of Public Service (Executive Agencies in the 21st Century)
in 2002, these kinds of questions would have been addressed in
"quinquennial reviews", which were required of all Next
Steps Agencies (both Trading Fund, and On-Vote). In particular,
a "prior options" review was needed formally looking
at all theoretical possibilities, including abolition, privatisation,
contractorisation, rationalisation and merger. The OPS review,
however, argued for a more streamlined, output-focussed approach,
which recognised the differing contributions made by different
Agencies, and the adverse impact on staff morale of repeated "prior
options" examinations. In taking the approach outlined above,
MoD is operating fully in line with this new policy, by ensuring
that any formal reviews which are instituted properly reflect
the situation and circumstances of the Trading Fund in question.
The possible alternative business models to
Trading Fund status which are being examined for potential future
review include the following, as appropriate to individual organisations:
— Return to On-Vote operation
— Maintain existing Trading Fund status
(either under MoD or another department)
— Merger with another relevant organisation
— Move to government-owned company
or similar
— Full or part-privatisation
The aim is to reach a final view by Summer 2006
on the need, or otherwise, for a formal review of structure and
ownership in relation to each Trading Fund.
Finally, DARA has not been included in the examination
of Trading Funds because its forward strategy has only recently
been established. On 2 February 2006, MoD announced the way forward
for DARA, following the outcome of the End-to-End Review of Air
Depth Logistics support, which transferred depth-support of RAF
Harrier and Tornado fast jets from DARA St Athan to RAF Main Operating
Bases. This matter was examined in detail by the Committee in
their recent Inquiry into Delivering Front Line Capability to
the RAF, (HC 557 dated 18 January 2006).
DARA's Fast Jet business at St Athan, together
with the DARA Engines business at Fleetlands in Hampshire, is
to close by April 2007. DARA's Rotary Wing and Components businesses,
together with the remaining Large Aircraft (VC10 tanker) work
remaining at St Athan, are to be taken to the market to test whether
sale might deliver improved effectiveness and value for money
for our Armed Forces and a better long-term future for the workforce.
Alternatively, these businesses could be retained within MoD ownership.
DARA's Electronics business at Sealand North Wales will be retained
by the MoD while we optimise the Department's future avionics
support arrangements.
We hope to have reached a final decision on
the future of DARA's Rotary Wing/Components and Large Aircraft
businesses within the next 12-18 months.
A note on why funding from the MoD increased substantially
from 2003-04 to 2004-05; and why funding from civil government
departments fell over the same period (Qq 227-228).
Upon the establishment of the Met Office as
a Trading Fund in 1996, funding for the underpinning infrastructure
necessary to support operational service delivery was disaggregated
to a Core Customer Group (CCG) comprising 18 of the Met Office's
key Public Sector customers. An independent review of the Core
Programme conducted by Professor David Westbury in 2002 identified
a number of weaknesses in this arrangement: Share values were
diverse, commitment and success of departmental bids was disparate,
and the requirement for unanimous agreement within the group reduced
funding to the lowest level of affordability within the group.
Professor Westbury's review formed the basis
of proposals to repatriate funding to a single budget line within
MoD. The transfer of funds took place between 2004 and 2006 and
resulted in a rise in MoD revenue of £15,133k in 2004-05
increasing to £26,050k in 2005-06, with a corresponding reduction
in civil departments.
If the trial at RAF Wittering is a success could
automated meteorological services in the future reduce the numbers
of forecasters that you will need to deploy on operations in the
Mobile Met Unit?
Currently, Met services at Wittering, like most
other UK and overseas stations and deployments at which the Mobile
Met Unit (MMU) is detached, are produced on site by forecasters
and delivered to aircrew and others by a range of methods including
personal briefing[2].
In the trial Distant Prophet, due to complete during 06/07,
the provision of these services will be tested under two different
configurations:
Configuration A, in which all services are produced
at a centralised location and delivered via electronic means.
Aircrew will be able to interact with forecasters by telephone,
perhaps later by video conferencing;
Configuration B, in which services will be produced
remotely, but at a centre specialising in support to Joint Force
Harrier. A reduced number of forecasters will still be available
at Wittering to interact directly with aircrew.
In both cases products will continue to be produced
by forecasters. It is not planned as yet to use the output from
numerical weather prediction models directly, as it is felt that
these do not yet have sufficient resolution in the lowest layers
of the atmosphere to meet the standards of accuracy and precision
required for military aviation forecasting.
The differences between Options A and B are
to assess the degree to which forecasters add value above centrally
produced products and where the value is added, in the accuracy
of the forecast information itself, or in the knowledge that the
forecaster brings to bear in assessing what impact the environment
could have on the conduct of the mission.
If Option A is successful future trials could
extend the concept to operations, leading to an eventual reduction
in Mobile Met Unit numbers. It should be remembered however, that
in an operation aircrew are working in an unfamiliar environment,
in which the atmosphere has different impacts upon the aircraft
systems, sensors and weapons. Communications access back to the
Met production centre may also be reduced or over-stretched. There
may also be a reduction in service quality as there would be no
front line deployed staff to pass back climate intelligence and
build up the expertise of the production centre, in the local
small scale weather variations.
If Option B was more successful, the role of
MMU staff would change, as they concentrated less on producing
forecast information and more on interpreting the forecast for
aircrew and assisting them to use that information to best effect.
There may still be scope for some reduction in MMU numbers, but
not to the extent as if Option A were more effective.
To be effective, Option A would have to be successful
in the UK and on operations. If it is necessary to retain deployable
MMU forecasters for operations overseas, it is much more effective
for them to be based on UK airfields when they are not deployed
(rather than at HQ Exeter). In that way their skills are maintained
as civilian forecasters on military bases where they can increase
their knowledge of how weather impacts their station's operations
and build up relationships with the aircrew they will support
overseas. This concept ties in exactly with the RAF's new Expeditionary
Air Wing Concept.
Can you describe the aims of the "broader
programme" that the RAF Wittering trial is a part of?
The Future Military Meteorology Requirement
(FMMR) is a study which is investigating ways to deliver less
manpower intensive meteorological services to the Army and RAF
at front line units.
The FMMR trial currently being conducted at
RAF Wittering by the Air Warfare Centre is to investigate the
feasibility of delivering an automated meteorological service.
The trial will evaluate the use of the Defence Meteorological
Centre (DMC) at RAF High Wycombe providing remote meteorological
services to RAF Wittering.
If successful, the programme will deliver significant
savings by delivering an automated service, removing the previous
resource intensive forecasting requirement and it will be broadened
to encompass meteorological support to wider military users once
its outputs are determined.
The FMMR programme is very much aligned with
the aims of the Future Defence Environment Capability, which seeks
to ensure that commanders have the best available Met and other
environmental information, fused into a coherent Recognised Environmental
Picture. This will facilitate improved operational planning, and
situational awareness and assessment, at all levels of command
in networked warfare.
How does the Met Office's scientific research
support the objectives of the MoD?
The Met Office's scientific research supports
the objectives of MoD in a number of ways.
In general, improvements in forecast accuracy,
both in terms of short-range and seasonal forecasting, lead to
better forecasts for front line forces, leading to greater precision
in the control of operations.
More specifically, the Met Office's research
on climate change is of increasing importance in MoD policy and
planning. For example, the potential impact of climate change
has been used to inform documents such as Defence Strategic Guidance
and Strategic Trends. The latter, produced by the Defence Concept
and Doctrine Centre, looks out 30 years at drivers for change
in the world, including the physical environment.
In addition, MoD's "The Strategic Defence
Review: A New Chapter" talks about the importance of network-centric
capability and the ability to disseminate accurate, timely and
relevant information. In this context, the Met Office has a dedicated
programme of research and development, largely funded through
the MoD Science, Innovation and Technology organisation, focussed
on delivering decision-superiority to the Defence customer. Pull-through
of R&D to operations facilitated by the Defence Meteorology
Programme is managed by the Defence Intelligence Staff, which
funds the conversion of R&D into operational capability. The
following provides illustrative examples of current research and
development areas.
— Atmospheric dust forecasting and
monitoring. Atmospheric dust has a significant impact on both
ground-based and airborne operations, including the performance
of electro-optical (visible, laser and infra-red imaging) systems.
Using Met Office expertise in Numerical Weather Prediction, atmospheric
transport and dispersion, observations-based research and satellite
data interpretation, a dust forecasting and monitoring system
is under development with an expected initial implementation date
of 2008.
— Electro-optical forecasts:
There is increasing reliance on electro-optical systems for both
flying (eg infra-red systems for night-time operations, night
vision goggles), guided munitions and intelligence gathering.
These are strongly dependent on both the thermal signatures
of targets against their backgrounds (for infra-red systems) and
the degradation of these signatures by the atmosphere due to clouds,
dust and moisture. An operational tool developed by the Met Office,
Neon, delivers forecasts of likely sensor performance using NWP
data (modifiable by a forecaster if required) on tactical timescales.
Neon is gaining functionality by pulling through science from
within the Met Office and is fully integrated with other projects
such as dust forecasting. It is an example of an increasing trend
of converting weather forecast information into impacts on specific
military systems.
— Radar propagation. Radar performance
is critically dependent on the three dimensional temperature and
humidity structure of the atmosphere. The presence of strong vertical
gradients of temperature humidity (often associated with "benign"
weather) may lead to conditions of both extended and restricted
radar coverage. A project is currently underway understanding
our ability to forecast this and the potential of the emerging
high-resolution NWP capability to provide enhanced guidance to
the military customer.
Is there a tension between delivering a world-leading
scientific research function and the requirements of a trading
fund to generate income? If so, how is this tension managed?
As a Trading Fund, the Met Office generates
income by selling added-value services. The source of that added-value
is the Met Office's world-leading scientific research function.
At the same time, the Met Office's trading status helps to focus
that research on areas of greatest relevance to customers, and
generates the hard financial resources to fund it. There is therefore
no tension between delivering a world-leading scientific research
function and the requirements of a trading fund to generate income;
rather the two are complementary. The Met Office has ambitious
plans to `pull through' more of its scientific knowledge and expertise
to support its commercial work thus generating additional income.
This will help further to enhance the Met Office's already enviable
international reputation for scientific excellence.
15 June 2006
1 MoD's five Trading Fund Agencies are: ABRO, Defence
Aviation Repair Agency (DARA), Defence Science and Technology
Laboratory (Dstl), the Met Office, and the UK Hydrographic Office. Back
2
Services provided by the Met Office at fixed military bases are
provided by civilian forecasters. Some of these are members of
the MMU but only wear uniform when deployed on operations. Back
| 
