7 Conclusion
139. The UK currently faces a range of decisions
on the future of its strategic nuclear deterrent. We must decide:
- Whether we want to retain a
strategic nuclear deterrent;
- Whether we should extend the service life of
our current Trident nuclear deterrent in the short-term;
- If we decide we want to retain a strategic nuclear
capability, what form our deterrent should take after Trident:
whether we should continue with a submarine-based system or opt
for a ship-based, air-based or land based deterrent;
140. The timeframe for decision-making is likely
to take the following form:
- 2006-2007: investment is needed
in order to sustain the UK's industrial and basing infrastructure
and specialist skills base until a decision on the future of the
nuclear deterrent is made. In the absence of this investment,
the range of options open to the UK will be reduced.
- 2007-2010: We will have to decide whether or
not to begin a Service Life Extension Programme for the current
Trident system. This will have a knock-on effect on the rest of
the timetable. If we do not extend the life of the Trident submarines
and we want to maintain a continuous-at-sea deterrent, decisions
on their successor will need to be made very swiftly. If we are
prepared to abandon the continuous-at-sea deterrent, we will have
a few more years.
- 2010-2014: If we decide to retain a strategic
nuclear deterrent and opt to extend the life of the Trident submarines,
initial concept work and investment will be needed at this stage
to narrow down the options for potential successor platforms.
- 2014: At this point, we will need to make a binding
decision about whether we want to retain a strategic nuclear deterrent.
If we do, this is the stage at which final decisions will be required
on the exact form of the future platform and the bulk of the investment
commitment will be made.
- 2020: Without extending the life of the current
Trident submarines, a successor platform would have to be in-service
by this date.
- 2025: This is the date by which a new platform
must be in-service if the UK is to retain its Continuous-at-Sea
Deterrent cycle, if we opt for a service-life extension programme
for the current Trident system.
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