APPENDIX A
RAND OBSERVATIONS
ON THE
NUCLEAR SUBMARINE
DESIGN SKILLS
BASE (1)
"Gaps in design and production can lead
to the departure of experience personnel to other industries and
to the erosion of defence system production skills."
"The submarine design base is rapidly eroding.
Demand for the design and engineering resources is declining as
the design of the first of class nears completion. The number
required will be fewer than that needed to sustain a viable nuclear
submarine design base."
"To sustain the UK's nuclear submarine
design expertise, some minimum core of professionals must continuously
work in that area. The number required varies with the domain
of expertise. The total number required across all domains is
approximately 200. The workforce could drop below this critical
level in the near future without a new design programme."
"There are options for sustaining the 200-person
submarine design core, the ideal way would be to soon commence
the design effort for a new class of submarines. No decision have
been made regarding any programmes beyond the Astute class. The
current Vanguard SSBN class could begin retiring as early as 2018.
Design of a follow-on SSBN class would have to start approximately
15 years prior to the desired in-service date for the replacement
submarines. The design for a follow-on class would have to begin
immediately. The Astute-class design would have to begin some
10 years in advance of delivery of the first of class."
"There may still be a period of time when
the design core is inadequate in at least some of the specialties
required to sustain expertise. How might the design core be sustained
through periods of slack demand? There are several possibilities:
— Evolution of the Astute design
as more boats are built to take advantage of new technologies.
— Continuous work on conceptual
designs for new submarine classes, whether or not those classes
are ever built.
— Design of unmanned undersea
vehicles."
"These options could be exercised simultaneously.
However, taken together, they could not by themselves adequately
sustain a submarine design core."
"Collaboration with the United States or
another submarine-producing country should also be considered.
Design work on each country"s submarine programmes could
help sustain the other's design core."
"A core of 200 designers, engineers, and
draughtsmen would require annual funding of perhaps £15 million."
(1) Rand Europe 2005, Volume 1 of The
UK's Nuclear Submarine Industrial Base: Sustaining Design and
Production Resources.
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