The National Statistician has asked me to reply to your letter of 26 May, asking about the measurement of education productivity, in my capacity as head of the UK Centre for the Measurement of Government Activity within the ONS.

  In July 2005 the then National Statistician accepted the broad recommendations from the Atkinson Review Final Report Measurement of Government Output and Productivity in the National Accounts (published in January 2005). At the same time, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) created the UK Centre for Measurement of Government Activity (UKCeMGA) to take forward the programme of work.

  ONS's current best estimate of Education productivity in the UK over the period 1995-2004 is contained in the Public Service Productivity Article on Education published in October 2005. While the article is published solely as an ONS document, it takes full account of DfES's latest work in developing better measures of Education output, published on 14 October.

  Estimates of productivity back to 1992-93 are currently unavailable and estimates for 2005-06 will be published in the next productivity article which is anticipated sometime in 2007.

  UKCeMGA is currently carrying forward a research program to investigate alternative methods for measuring Education inputs, the strands of work include improving the current expenditure input measure by employing more suitable deflators and possibly constructing a volume measure of Education Inputs which weights the expenditure figures (increase in labour costs) with the actual increase in the Education staff. This work has just started and is not possible at the moment to provide a time for estimates to be available.

  The article published in October 2005 provides a snapshot of the productivity analysis to date. UKCeMGA are of course progressing this work, in collaboration with DfES. Productivity analysis is very complex and it is difficult for any estimate of productivity to fully capture all the outputs from education spending, but there are some obvious alternatives based on attainment output which are being considered.

  UKCeMGA are taking this work forward by undertaking an extensive consultation programme on these various methodologies put forward by the UKCeMGA Productivity Article. These consultation exercises are necessary to ensure that experts—analysts and practitioners—are consulted in the delivery of the public services to try to establish a consensus on the methodology. Alongside the consultation exercise on Education Productivity, UKCeMGA will also be consulting on the key methodological issues which underpin productivity measurement more generally. This programme of consultation is likely to start in September 2006.

  Measurement of the productivity of the public services is not simple and once the consultation period is complete there will be many issues to decide. The further step of including any changes for measurement of Education Inputs and outputs into the National Accounts, will need to be put through their own (ONS) rigorous procedures.

  International comparisons of achievement can also be used to produce more meaningful comparisons of GDP (and its components) between countries. This requires co-operation between countries and facilitation by international organisations. UKCeMGA is working with a recently created Eurostat Task Force to take forward the necessary development work. One of the options being considered is to make greater use of the OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), which aims to make international comparisons of pupil achievement. One issue worth considering is whether something similar might help us in measuring the UK's own performance over time.

June 2006