Memorandum submitted by the South West
Climate Change Impacts Partnership (SWCCIP)
1. ABOUT SWCCIP
The South West Climate Change Impacts Partnership
(SWCCIP) was established in 2001, with the aim "to investigate,
inform and advise on the impacts of climate change in South West
England". The importance of a regional approach to responding
to the impacts of climate change has been widely recognised, and
as such SWCCIP is only regional partnership in the South West
focussing on the impacts of climate change and the need to adapt
to those impacts (adaptation). SWCCIP produced and disseminated
of a South West Region Climate Change Impact Scoping Study "Warming
to the Idea" in January 2003. The partnership has six sector
groups (agriculture, biodiversity, local government, housing and
construction, tourism and utilities), which look at the effects
and impacts of climate change in the South West on specific sectors.
2. SWCCIP is funded by the Environment Agency,
Government Office for the South West, South West Regional Assembly,
South West Regional Development Agency and South West Water.
3. KEY POINTS
SWCCIP welcomes the 2006 Climate Change Programme,
setting out the policies and priorities of the UK in tackling
the causes of climate change and it impacts. However, it is uncertain
whether the 2006 Climate Change Programme represents a realistic
strategy to prepare the UK to meet "probably the greatest
long-term challenge facing the human race", as expressed
by the Prime Minister. The Hadley Centre climate models illustrate
that global warming between now and the 2040s is unavoidable and
does not depend on current emissions scenarios, therefore the
UK will continue to experience the impacts of unavoidable climate
change in the short and medium term. SWCCIP is concerned that
the importance of adapting to unavoidable climate change is not
reflected in the 2006 Climate Change Programme, as only 5% of
the document considers climate change impacts and adaptive action
required. The observed climate change in the South West reflect
global trends, suggesting that we are already experiencing the
impacts of climate change: in the region, over the course of the
20th century the average annual temperature has increased by about
0.8-0.9 degrees C. Met Office records for Exmouth exist from 1930,
which show that the last decade (1995-2004) is the warmest on
record, followed by the 1980s and the 1970s.
4. Whilst SWCCIP welcomes important developments
in the 2006 Programme on adaptation, including revised guidance
on flood and coastal erosion; the forthcoming publication of research
on the effects of climate change on UK priority species and habitats
(MONARCH3); future work of the Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership,
in considering the "Adaptation" chapter of the 2006
Climate Change Programme, SWCCIP has a number of comments.
5. ADAPTATION
POLICY FRAMEWORK
The 2006 Climate Change Programme aims to establish
the first national Adaptation Policy (APF) Framework to develop
an understanding of the need for climate change adaptation across
the UK. However, the SWCCIP has significant concerns regarding
the approach of the Adaptation Policy Framework consultation exercise
completed in January 2006.
6. PURPOSE
It would appear that the consultation's explicit
purpose is at odds with the implicit purpose of a generic consultation.
This consultation is framed as a "request for information"
about climate and weather related adaptations that have been implemented
since 1950. This is in effect the initiation of Stage 1 of the
proposed APF process. As such there is an assumption that the
documented process is the best way to proceed and is universally
acceptable, whereas the purpose of such a consultation should
be to examine the proposed process outlined in the document. Only
when this examination has been concluded should Stage 1 of the
APF be initiated, if appropriate. The Adaptation Policy Framework
needs to distinguish between those measures that have been implemented
as reactive adaptations, and those measures taken as anticipatory
adaptation, which the UK Climate Impacts Programme promotes.
7. METHODOLOGY
The SWCCIP is concerned by the overall 3-stage
approach proposed which appears to be a climate impacts based
gap analysis. The proposed process assumes that all sectors will
need to adapt and that those who are not currently adapting will
need incentives in order to do so. The Framework needs to take
account of the selective nature of impacts for both location and
population (such as the occurrence of extreme events), against
the potential ubiquity of anticipatory adaptation.
8. The SWCCIP believes that a more productive
approach would be to analyse each sectors' current vulnerability
to climate change. An alternative approach for an adaptation policy
framework should therefore consider an assessment of current vulnerability
to climate change, the policies that serve to reduce it and enable
adaptation for those areas that are vulnerable. The process outlined
by Burton et al in a paper entitled "From Impacts Assessment
to Adaptation Priorities: the Shaping of Adaptation Policy"
in Climate Policy 2(2002) 145-159 (Enclosed) is as follows:
— Step 1. Current Vulnerability
Assessment:
Assess current vulnerability to present day climate.
Output: An assessment of current vulnerability
which can also act as the baseline for measuring progress of a
UK Adaptation Programme.
— Step 2. Analysis of Current Policy
Response:
Analyse the ways that existing policies serve
to reduce vulnerability.
Output: An inventory of existing mechanisms.
— Step 3. Analysis of Climate-proofing
Potential of Existing Policies: Analyse the ways in which existing
mechanisms could be altered to meet the future "direction
of travel" of the UK climate. Where gaps exist identify new
policy responses.
Output: An inventory of potential adaptation
policy initiatives and reforms.
— Step 4. Prioritisation of Policy
Response:
Based on the most vulnerable individuals, communities,
locations, sectors etc. select, cost and prioritise the policy
response.
Output: A costed programme of policy amendments
and initiatives—the UK Adaptation Programme.
9. The SWCCIP strongly recommends an approach
that delivers an adaptation policy framework that is more directly
based on reducing present vulnerability currently experienced
rather than an approach that is purely based on future impacts.
10. REVISED CLIMATE
CHANGE SCENARIOS,
2008
SWCCIP welcomes the revision of existing scenarios
to be published in 2008 as these are vital to inform the decision
making and policy development at national, regional and local
levels. SWCCIP urges that the next set of scenarios are developed
to take account of the following points:
— detailed scenarios need to be compliant
with users' software. In the experience of some local authorities,
each file name had to be changed, a process which took six months
to manipulate the files in order to turn them into a useable format
for other local authorities to access;
— UKCIP to develop a training module/element
to enable users to access the detailed scenarios data most effectively;
— when presented with a range of deterministic
scenarios, there is a real danger of users simply choosing the
middle range, even if each range is equally likely, so the forthcoming
scenarios need to take account of this problem; and
— UKCIP02 scenarios cover sea-level
rise very briefly; future scenarios should include more detailed
information on storm surges and sea level rise.
11. INDICATORS
OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
SWCCIP looks forward to the reviewed and updated
UK indicators of climate change and urges Government to work with
all the regional partnerships when developing guidance for regional
indicators of climate change, to ensure their relevance and effectiveness.
Any climate change indicators developed should also be subject
to regular review and revisions where appropriate
12. MONITORING
PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
OF GOVERNMENT
To ensure that the UK Government's priorities
on climate change are delivered, SWCCIP urges that performance
indicators of all government departments are monitored, revised
and reported on an ongoing basis, to ensure that they are compliant
with UK Government's priorities in climate change as expressed
in the 2006 Climate Change Programme.
13. RESEARCH
There is a lack of compelling information on
the economic costs of adapting to climate change impacts versus
the `doing nothing' approach for each sector. Research on this
subject would go a long way to address the problem of `inaction
due to future uncertainty' attitude, which is one of the greatest
barriers to adaptation at the regional and sub-regional level.
14. Results of existing research also require
wider ownership, by including the relevant stakeholders, as in
some cases there is the perception that there is a missing link
between researchers, policy makers and adaptive action taken within
sectors. The dissemination of key messages from research, developed
specifically for policy makers and other key stakeholders is crucial
to all current climate change research projects.
15. FUNDING
SWCCIP welcomes the proposed assessment of funding
for regional climate change partnerships, as currently there is
a lack of sustained long term funding which can hinder the development
of comprehensive programmes of the partnerships. Regional partnerships
play a key role in overcoming the barriers to action, such as
a lack of awareness, or lack of local relevance through developing
targeted, relevant research, communication and action on climate
change, at the regional and sub regional level. SWCCIP looks forward
to informing Government's proposed assessment of funding.
16. SWCCIP would also urge the introduction
of a cross sector long-term loan or grant scheme for investment
in adaptation and mitigation activities, supported by Treasury.
The experience of SWCCIP members suggests that most finance directors
in the public and private sector have difficulty sanctioning action
or investment in response to the challenges of climate change,
if it does not bring results which can address government targets
or savings (public sector) or shareholder profits (private sector).
Principal business drivers such as regulation, legislation, incentives
and Corporate Social Responsibility do not include adapting to
climate change. These are key barriers to driving action to respond
to the cross cutting challenges that climate change brings.
May 2006
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