Supplementary memorandum submitted by
EDF Energy
THE GENERATION
GAP
— The term "generation gap" is
used to describe a shortfall in electricity generating capacity
as compared to electricity demand assuming circa 20% plant margin
needs to be maintained.
— We estimate that 25-35 GW of new electricity
generation will be needed by 2018 to fill the emerging "gap"
— The gap will occur because of:
— the closure of coal and oil plants through
the impact of the LCPD;
— the nuclear decommissioning programme;
and
— demand growth.
How we calculated this generation gap for 2018
— We assumed peak demand increases from
62 to 68 GW:
— This is based on National Grid's 2005
GB seven year statement that assumes average peak demand will
grow by 0.79% per annum. This is the growth rate seen at the grid
level, so it takes into account growth in distributed generation
and improvements in energy efficiency, which has a negative effect
on growth at the grid level. NG says that if distributed generation
and energy efficiency were excluded the growth rate would be 1.4%
per annum. They do not specify how much of this difference is
due solely to energy efficiency.
The gap figure takes into account the contribution
of new renewables delivered through the Renewables Obligation.
— This is estimated to be around 10 GW
of transmission-connected renewables build. However even on a
very optimistic assumption only 50% of this capacity would be
considered "firm" ie not intermittent such as wind.
Embedded (distributed generation) renewables build that also contributes
to the Renewables Obligation target is implicit in the estimate
of demand.
— We have also assumed a system margin
of around 20% needs to be maintained as is the situation at present.
— All Magnox (BNFL) stations shutting by
2010 equals a loss of 2.5 GW.
— The closure of a number of Advanced Gas-cooled
Reactors (AGRs) owned by British Energy. Estimated loss of approximately
5 GW as early as 2014 if life extensions not given.
— The limiting of output from "opted-out"
coal as a result of the Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD).
Could be as much as 19 GW of coal capacity by 2016.
— Peak demand increases from 62 to 68 GW.
— Eight GW nuclear closure.
— Nineteen GW LCPD opt-out closure.
— Demand increase -6 GW
— Nuclear -8 GW
— Opt out coal -19 GW
— Renewables +5 GW (10 GW 50% capacity)
Total generation gap = approx 28 GW (based on
maintaining same system margin close to 20%.
February 2006
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