The global context
155. The latest forecasts from both the International
Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Department of Energy predict that
global emissions of greenhouse gases will increase by over 60%
from 2002 to 2030 (from 24 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a
year in 2003 to 38 billion tonnes in 2030). Indeed, the rate of
increase is forecast to be greater than that we have experienced
since 1970. Coal, gas, and oil are projected to supply 83% of
total energy needs by 2030—1% higher than the current level.
Even on the basis of the "alternative policy scenario"
which the IEA calculated—which takes account of increased
environmental action by governments—emissions are still
forecast to increase by 33% to 32 billion tonnes a year by 2030.
156. Power generation will account for half the overall
forecast increase in emissions, with coal and gas the dominant
fuels. Indeed, the IEA estimate that $10 trillion investment in
electricity generation will be required over the next 25 years,
with a further $3 trillion in oil. A considerable part of this
investment will be in fossil fuel generating capacity and this
was graphically illustrated by the evidence we received to the
effect that China is now building the equivalent of one new coal
generating plant a week. By contrast, renewables share of the
electricity generating mix is around 19% and nuclear contributes
17%. Forecasts indicate a moderate growth of renewables over the
coming decades but a decline in the percentage share of nuclear.
Even under the MIT's "global growth" scenario in which
at least 1000 nuclear power stations were built worldwide, the
percentage of world electricity generated from nuclear would rise
only from 17% to 19%.
157. In a report published a year ago, the EAC highlighted
the yawning chasm which existed between such forecasts and the
need to stabilise emissions in the next two decades and subsequently
reduce them if we are to avoid the possibility of catastrophic
climate change.[178]
In this context, the scale of emissions from fossil fuels is
such that even a substantial growth in renewables would have little
effect; while the potential contribution of nuclear is still more
limited. The one technology which could, however, make a significant
impact is carbon capture and sequestration. Indeed, it would
not be an over-statement to claim that, if we fail to implement
quickly CCS technology in China and other rapidly developing states,
all our other efforts to move towards a low-carbon economy will
have little effect.
178 EAC, Fourth Report of 2004-05, The International
Challenge of Climate Change: UK Leadership in the G8 and EU,
HC 105. Back
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