The nature of the challenge for
DfT
10. As the Climate Change Programme 2006 (CCP 2006)
announced, the UK is on course to meet its Kyoto target, but is
not on course to meet its domestic target to reduce CO2 emissions
by 20% by 2010.[8] Carbon
dioxide emissions were 161.5MtC[9]
in 1990; in 2004 they stood at 152.5MtC, a reduction of 5.6%,
only just a quarter of the way towards the target for 2010. The
Government estimates that, with the additional package of measures
unveiled in CCP 2006 and subject to the UK's recently proposed
carbon allocation within the second phase of the EU Emissions
Trading Scheme, CO2 emissions will be around 16.2% below 1990
levels by 2010, closer to though still not meeting the target.[10]
11. To what extent is transport responsible for the
slow progress to date in meeting the 2010 target? Certainly, transport
is both a major source of emissions and the only sector of the
economy from which CO2 has been rising consistently since 1990.
Measured in terms of end user emissions,[11]
transport within the UK (i.e., excluding international aviation
and shipping refuelling in the UK) was responsible for 43.1MtC
in 2004 (or around 28% of total UK domestic carbon emissions),
a rise in transport emissions of around 10% since 1990. Government
projections (absent the new measures announced in CCP 2006) are
for this trend to continue up to 2015 before starting to decline
very gently, with internal UK transport emissions estimated to
lie at 45.3MtC in 2020, 16% higher than 1990 levels and 5% higher
than 2004 levels, and with transport making up some 31% of total
carbon emissions for 2020. These trends contrast strongly with
other sectors of the economy: the "Agriculture, forestry
and land management", "Public", "Business",
and "Domestic" sectors all saw reductions in carbon
emissions in 2004 from 1990 levels—by around 53%, 28%, 12%
and 2% respectively.
12. When international aviation and shipping are
included,[12] these trends
are even starker. Carbon emissions from international flights
departing the UK stood at 9.1MtC in 2004, a rise of 111% from
1990, and equivalent on their own to 5% of the UK's total carbon
emissions in 2004. This is without even factoring in the extra
contribution which aviation makes to global warming due to the
radiative forcing of the greenhouse gases it releases at altitude.
[13] Adding international
aviation and shipping, total CO2 emissions (not counting radiative
forcing) from UK transport stood at 53.9MtC in 2004 (some 33%
of total UK emissions from all sectors), a rise in transport emissions
of 18% from 1990.
13. While aviation has seen the steepest rises in
emissions, the most significant source of emissions within the
transport sector is road transport; and here, too, emissions are
still rising. Measuring emissions on a "by source" basis,[14]
road transport emitted some 33MtC in 2004 (21% of domestic UK
carbon emissions in that year), an increase of around 10% since
1990.[15] Meanwhile,
latest projections from the DTI are for road transport emissions
(absent the new measures in CCP 2006) to rise to 34.6MtC in 2010,
and again to 36.2 MtC in 2020.[16]
Carbon emissions from private cars have risen by 8% between 1990
and 2004, while emissions from Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs) have
risen by 25%.[17]
14. Figure 1 summarises these rises in carbon emissions
from transport in the context of total UK emissions. Unlike the
equivalent table in the Climate Change Programme 2006, this adds
figures for international aviation and shipping to present total
transport emissions, for added transparency. Figure 2 depicts
the share of emissions by sector (for 2004), to illustrate at
a glance the relative contribution of transport. Figure 3 shows
the percentage change in emissions per sector since 1990, illustrating
the fact that, measured on a "by source" basis, two
of the three sharpest increases have come from aviation and road
transport.
15. One final point
needs to be made about these figures. Government
projections for future years emissions should be treated with
a certain degree of caution. Going
by their track record, there
is some reason to expect that, unless new measures are added,
these projections will have to be revised upwards in time.
The Environmental Audit Committee has several times observed that
Government projections have
often overestimated the future impacts of carbon reduction measures
and underestimated total future emissions.[18]
In particular, we have expressed doubts about DfT's projections
for carbon emissions from aviation; while a recent paper by Steer
Davies Gleave for Transport 2000 has severely, and with great
weight of analysis, criticised the accuracy of emissions projections
from road transport.[19]
Further, both that paper and more than one memo we received[20]
demonstrated that there are
important discrepancies between the emissions projections made
by DfT and those made by the DTI. The Government should review
the different methods used by these departments, and look at establishing
a more concerted and accurate approach for greater certainty and
clarity.
Figure 1 End user carbon emissions in MtC, by
sector
