Memorandum submitted by Tyndall Centre
for Climate Change Research, Manchester
1. The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research is a network of universities that brings together climate
scientists, engineers and social scientists to develop sustainable
responses to climate change. This memorandum reflects the views
of Tyndall Centre researchers at the University of Manchester.
The Tyndall Centre as an organization does not adopt policy positions.
2. Tyndall Centre (Manchester) researchers
have generated a suite of scenarios related to the various emissions
sectors. Whilst some of these scenarios scope out emission trajectories
for the full energy system, others are more detailed evaluations
of aviation in particular. The Decarbonising UK scenarios, whilst
considering all sectors, do have considerable focus on transport
emissions, analysed in relation to private road, public road,
road freight, rail, shipping and aviation. Complementing this
work, is a more detailed analysis of civil aviation emissions
associated with the UK and EU up to 2050. Tyndall scenarios are
related to a range of targets, broadly based on the UK and EU
making their fair contribution to a future under both a 450ppmv
and 550ppmv concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide.[104]
3. The emission scenarios demonstrate a
wide range of futures in which transport can be reconciled with
various emission reductions. Whilst some of these are primarily
demand-led, others contain significant technology and fuel developments
allied with modal shift. The aviation analysis is developed in
greater detail and clearly demonstrates that unless both the UK
and EU serious tackle the growth in this sector as a matter of
urgency, meaningful carbon dioxide reduction targets will simply
not be credible. This analysis considers a range of issues, including,
for example, historical trends, the impact of 9/11, new plane
efficiency, fleet turnover, etc, as well as being based on the
very latest emissions data, in stark contrast to the Government's
own analysis.
4. Work within Tyndall Manchester illustrates
the significance of different target atmospheric carbon dioxide
regimes in terms of the emissions reduction necessary within the
EU and UK. It is increasingly evident that unless the UK is to
rethink its interpretation of "dangerous climate change"
as correlating with a global mean surface temperature rise of
two degrees centigrade, it must accept a significant reduction
from the 550ppmv figure that it continues to work towards. The
scientific consensus is that a carbon dioxide concentration of
below 450ppmv is more likely to correlate with two degrees centigrade;
the implication of this for UK and EU emission targets, and hence
policies, cannot be underrated. Considering a 450ppmv future in
relation to aviation highlights the scale of the problem. At projected
growth rates and a 450ppmv target, by 2050, UK and EU aviation
emissions alone will constitute between 80% and 100% of carbon
emissions permissible for their respective economies, assuming
no "uplift" of aviation emissions. If the additional
climate warming generated by the production of condensation trails,
cirrus clouds and the resultant formation of other greenhouse
gases were to be taken into account by applying an uplift multiplier,
aviation growth is likely to result in a requirement for full
carbon neutrality of all other sectors sometime between 2020 and
2050.[105]
5. Given the magnitude and significance
of these findings, we suggest that, in relation to the Committee's
question: whether the DfT's carbon reduction target is underpinned
by a coherent strategy stretching across the department's entire
range of activities, the answer is a clear and categorical "no".
In particular, we have yet to see any evidence that the DfT is
taking long term climate change targets, whether related to 550ppmv
or 450ppmv, seriously.
6. One approach increasingly heralded as
a solution to the aviation issue, is the industry's inclusion
within the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. However, as it is currently
structured and in relation to the various emission caps arising
from member states national allocation plans, the EU ETS would
appear to offer little hope of significantly reducing overall
emissions. Moreover, ICAO has yet to bring forward any practical
plans for incorporating aviation emissions in international emissions
trading.
7. Another issue that the Tyndall Manchester
team have raised, and to some degree quantified, is the increasing
emissions burden arising from international shipping. This, almost
wholly, neglected sector is growing rapidly yet remains essentially
outside the DfT's emissions brief. Such an omission cannot be
reconciled with any claim that a "coherent strategy stretching
across the department's entire range of activities" is in
place—or even being considered.
8. In relation to the Committee's question:
what realistically the DfT could achieve by 2010 and 2020 in terms
of reducing transport-related carbon emissions, and the role that
demand management should play in doing so, Tyndall work gives
clear examples of responses, for instance:
(a) Aviation growth being curtailed as a
matter of urgency;
(b) A moratorium on airport expansion and
consideration of whether additional infrastructure should be selectively
permitted on the basis of regional regeneration criteria, not
market demand alone;
(c) Stringent minimum efficiency standards
introduced for private cars, and possibly all other transport
modes. These would be phased in to provide adequate market signals
and then subsequently ratcheted up on a two yearly basis. (eg
all cars sold on UK forecourts by 2010 should achieve a minimum
of 40mpg, and this will be increased by 5% every two years thereafter
until a review in 2020).
9. Compensation in terms of enhancing biological
sinks (especially for bioenergy), energy efficiency and renewable
energy projects all carry ethical and practical environmental
risks. Yet DfT should at least be investigating schemes to deploy
these options, given their likely political and consumer acceptability
relative to emissions, fuel charges, or infrastructure restrictions.
February 2006
104 Bows, A, Anderson, K and Upham, P (2006) "Contraction
and Convergence: UK Carbon Emissions and the Implications for
UK Air Traffic", Technical Report, Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change, http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme2/final-reports/t3_23.pdf Back
105
The use of an "uplift factor" to account for the additional
climate warming impacts of aviation is a highly contentious issue
given the difficulties in using one metric to account for very
different types of emissions. For example, a contrail released
by an aircraft will last a number of days, and only affect the
region where it is emitted, whereas carbon dioxide emitted by
aircraft remains in the atmosphere for around 100 years, and eventually
becomes well mixed throughout the atmosphere. Back
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