Examination of Witnesses (Questions 20-21)
PROFESSOR PAUL
WILKINSON AND
MR PETER
TAYLOR
19 OCTOBER 2005
Q20 Mr Horam: Is that fully accepted
by the Wahhabi leaders?
Professor Wilkinson: Yes, that
is right. They see this as a group which is criminal in nature,
that has to be crushed because it is a threat to the regime, it
is a threat to their economy as they see it, and a threat of course
to Saudi relations with the United States and with the Western
world generally. So the Saudi regime and many of the rising prosperous
class of professionals in Saudi society clearly recognise that
they have a stake in showing success in beating off the efforts
of al Qaeda.
Q21 Mr Horam: So is it a diminishing
recruiting ground for al Qaeda?
Professor Wilkinson: I think that
under King Abdullah it is true to say that it will continue to
be a diminishing recruiting ground because King Abdullah is a
popular figure; he is particularly popular in the conservative
religious circles of Wahhabism, which is the dominant religious
belief system in the country, and provided the government continues
to try to meet the needs of the people in economic terms and to
reform, which they have promised to do, the political and economic
system, I see no reason to regard Saudi as the most vulnerable
of all the states in the Middle East. One could argue, tragically,
that Pakistan, with its terrible problems, particularly those
made much greater by the dreadful earthquake, is more vulnerable
in many ways because there is a core of support for al Qaeda among
some of its population, particularly up in the north-west frontier
area, but some also in the big cities, and President Musharraf
is so much the core of the policy of support for the Western coalition
that if al Qaeda succeeded in one of their attempts to assassinate
him—and they have tried several times already—I think
that would have the most damaging consequences for the stability
of Pakistan. Pakistan I think is very vulnerable. Let us not forget
that Afghanistan is also still vulnerable because, despite all
our efforts there, despite the fact that we have troops deployed
there, the Taliban, with al Qaeda under its wing, and in alliance
with some war lords, is creeping back into positions of influence
in some of the provinces, and that is a worrying development.
It would be tragic if we allowed the situation that prevailed
prior to 2001 to emerge by a process of drift. I hope that we
can continue to give substantial support to President Karzai,
who is very courageous, who is trying to make democracy work in
that benighted country. We really need to do more for him, and
if we are able to find—and I agree with Peter; it is going
to be difficult—an honourable and safe way of reducing our
military commitments in Iraq, I hope we switch some of that effort
to the very desperate needs of helping security in Afghanistan.
Chairman: Thank you very much. I am afraid
we have run out of time. We have another witness waiting patiently
and we have to move on. Thank you, gentlemen, very much. It has
been extremely informative. No doubt if we have any other thoughts
we may be writing to you both with further inquiries on aspects
of answers you gave and information that we might require. Thank
you for coming and thank you for giving us so much information.
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