Annex 1
INFLUENCE OF
CHINA'S
EMERGENCE ON
ROK SECURITY AND
STABILITY
Kim Heung-kyu, Professor, Institute of Foreign
Affairs and National Security, December 2005.
Recently, the emergence of China has become
a major topic of discussion among policy makers and scholars around
the world, with the most pressing concern being "how to understand
and deal with a rising China."
It has been a while since the "influence
of China's emergence on Korea's security and stability" became
a central issue among policy makers and intellectuals in the Republic
of Korea (hereafter cited as ROK). It is only natural that they
are keenly interested in the changes of China when considering
Korea's long history of contact with China as a neighbouring country,
military confrontation during the Korean War between 1950-53,
and continuous mutual influence in the process of rapidly strengthening
economic and human ties after the end of the cold war.
Korea's understanding of China in relation to
security is largely influenced by the following factors. The first
is historical experience. Records of historical contacts between
the two countries date back over 2,000 years. During the course
of history, there were various cultural exchanges and civilizational
benefits between the two countries; but at the same time, Korea
often became the target of invasion and plundering. Through both
great sacrifice and intense resistance to protect Korea's independence,
strong caution toward China and powerful nationalism developed
in the minds of the Korean people. This is a typical example of
a weak and small country, neighbouring a large powerful nation
and showing resistance and caution, which explains why it is quite
natural that Korea should be sensitive about and vigilant of China's
changes.
The second factor is the reality of division
on the Korean peninsula. The Korean peninsula was divided into
South and North Korea for the sake of the balance of power politics
after World War II, and after an internecine war, there has been
an ongoing ideological confrontation between the divided states.
The Korean peninsula is one of the few places on Earth where cold
war-like confrontation still remains, even after the collapse
of the cold war system in Eastern Europe. China signed the "Treaty
of Friendship, Cooperation and Assistance," which is tantamount
to a military defence treaty, with North Korea in 1961. The treaty
is still in effect today.
Human and economic exchanges between ROK and
China have rapidly increased since establishment of diplomatic
ties in 1992, and China has become the number one trading partner
of Korea in terms of quantity. Politically, also, the relationship
between the two countries has been enhanced to an all-round cooperative
partnership in 2003, with targets and the scope of cooperation
continuing to expand through, for example, agreement to increase
security cooperation reached at the Korea-China summit meeting
in November 2005. In particular, the two countries are closely
cooperating with each other over the North Korean nuclear issue
in order to solve the nuclear crisis peacefully and to maintain
stability in the Northeast Asian region.
However, the continuing state of division and
confrontation on the Korean peninsula harking back to the days
of the cold war, and the threat that the South Korean people feel
is posed to their security, all contribute to putting the key
importance of ROK foreign policy on the country's alliance with
the United States. Given that China is maintaining a quasi-military
alliance with North Korea, there are certain limitations for ROK
in terms of building political and militaristic ties commensurate
to its economic ties with China. For its part, China puts emphasis
on its relationship with North Korea because of the long-standing
ties with Pyongyang and for strategic considerations, and seeks
to maintain a balanced policy on the Korean peninsula.
The third factor is related to the changing
international position of ROK. After the country was liberated
from the occupation and depredation of Japan in 1945, ROK was
one of the poorest countries in the world with a per capita income
of less than US $100 before a modernization process started in
the 1960s. Under the threat of the Communist bloc and having been
forced to rely on the United States for its national security
and prosperity, ROK pursued a typical foreign policy based on
"realism for a weak and small country," by hopping on
the bandwagon of a powerful country in the interest of its own
survival.
Nevertheless, after the 1990s, ROK joined the
OECD, which can be seen as an economic club of advanced countries,
and rose to the world rank of 11th in terms of GDP as of 2004.
After the anti-dictatorship movements in the 1980s, Korea's transition
to democracy was successfully completed, and more recently, the
country regained its cultural confidence through a series of local
and global successes of South Korean movies and the "Korean
Wave" which stormed across Asia. Recognition of changes in
the country's global position is being reflected in its foreign
policy. Specifically, there have been attempts to readjust the
ROK's alliance with the United States based on new changes. Additionally,
a new attitude arose, independent from the United States or Japan,
concerning the understanding of and relationship with China.
Not only in the field of economics, but also
in the field of security, China has caused confusion for ROK by
both posing threats and presenting opportunities at the same time.
It is true that there are rising concerns over the reinforcement
of China's military might. However, it is not very likely for
the time being that the augmentation of China's military force
will be used as a tool for external expansion or aggressive foreign
policy. Currently, China's foreign policy seems to be focused
on paving the way for economic development in order to realize
a "well-off (xiaokang) society" with a medium-level
welfare system while maintaining the communist order. Such a trend
is expected to continue at least until 2020, the year for which
China has set the goal of achieving its well-off society. To realize
this goal, in the field of foreign diplomacy, China is trying
to avoid direct military confrontation with the United States,
enhance friendly relations with neighbouring countries to bring
stability to the region, and build the image of a responsible
superpower that acts based on the theme of global "peace
and prosperity." Accordingly, China's foreign policy focuses
on avoiding conflicts with neighbouring countries and solving
problems through compromise, and in turn, this is having a positive
influence on South Korean security issues.
Faced with the North Korean nuclear crisis,
China's foreign policy has played a positive role in establishing
the principle of trying to solve the problems through dialog and
compromise rather than all-out confrontation, and in bringing
stability to Northeast Asia. This has enabled China to cooperate
with ROK on mutual policy toward North Korea. ROK took notice
of Chinese Party Chief Hu Jin Tao's recognition of Seoul's active
role with regard to Korean peninsular issues during the summit
meeting in November of 2005, while cautiously observing China's
increasing economic influence in North Korea. In future situations
involving North Korea, ROK hopes to have its leading role recognized
externally by cooperating with China, and to utilize China's influence
on North Korea.
Of course, there is always the possibility of
conflict despite the current enhancement of overall cooperation
and positive development between the two countries. For example,
while in the process of conducting its Northeast Asian history
project, China claimed in 2002 that the history of Goguryeo, which
has been explained to be one of the historical roots of Korea,
is that of a minority race within China which in turn sparked
a historical dispute with Korea. This gave rise to strong nationalist
sentiment in ROK, and China's image in Korea largely deteriorated.
Although the controversy came to an end with the meeting between
the two countries' Deputy Foreign Ministers, the delivery of Party
Chief Hu Jin Tao's message during the Chinese People's Political
Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and Chairman Jia Qinglin's visit
to Seoul in August 2004, it was an issue which clearly demonstrated
how quickly the relationship between the two countries can deteriorate.
In addition, there are other problems with the potential to create
controversy, such as territorial disputes and the issue of North
Korean refugees, as well as a certain degree of tension.
Although not traditionally belonging to the
field of security, China's recent efforts related to securing
energy and resources in the process of its economic development
pose a serious concern for ROK's relevant security issues. China
took up only 3.9% of the world's GDP in 2003, but its usage of
petroleum, coal and iron ore took up 7.4, 31, and 30% respectively,
which is highly inefficient. In the future, China's shortage of
resources is expected to worsen, and by 2020, 60% of the country's
resources will depend on imports. Thus, China's policy for supplying
energy and resources in the future will cause problems in distribution
and supply of energy and resources not only for Korea, but also
for the world as a whole.
One of the security-related possibilities that
ROK is weary about is a conflict or bipolarization between China
and the United States or the United States and Japan in the Northeast
Asian region. Of course, China maintains the basic position of
avoiding military conflict or confrontation with the United States,
but when it comes to issues related to its territory or sovereignty,
such as the Taiwan issue, China is sure to take a stubborn attitude.
Hu Jin Tao's regime is in a relatively weak condition because
of internal nationalist demands. Although the possibility is very
small, ROK may face the awkward situation of having to choose
between the two countries if circumstances worsen. In this case,
any of the two choices will bring an undesirable result for ROK,
and China's state of confusion will be a threat not only to ROK
but also to the security of the Northeast Asian region.
From Seoul's perspective, the most desirable
China-related security situation is for China to join the global
community both politically and economically as a responsible superpower,
which is Beijing's wish. China needs to stabilize its local politics
while maintaining secure economic growth, keeping friendly relations
with neighbouring countries and solving conflicts peacefully based
on the principles of reciprocity and cooperation. Moreover, it
needs to focus on comprehensive and global security issues fit
for the 21st century rather than the balance of power and political
realism of the 19th century, restrain itself from rapidly enhancing
its military force and obtaining offensive arms systems and act
with more transparency. In this process, if China can present
alternative proposals for achieving universal human values, its
role as a global leader is sure to be secured.
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