Select Committee on Health Memoranda


5.  ACTIVITY, PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY (continued)

5.11  NHS Inflation

  5.11.1  Could the Department give an explanation as to the level of funding set aside for inflation in 2006-07? In particular, can it give the average pay awards to each (subjective) staff group and the inflation assumptions for non pay including capital charges? (Q94)

  ANSWER

  1.  NHS funding will rise by £6.6 billion to £84.4 billion in 2006-07 from £77.8 billion in 2005-06, equivalent to 5.8% real terms growth. This funding will help the NHS to meet healthcare pressures reflected in Local Delivery Plans. However, it is for health economies, including strategic health authorities in partnership with NHS Trusts, Primary Care Trusts and local authorities to determine how best to use their funds to meet national and local priorities for improving health and modernising services; to provide greater choice and better access for patients. The significant additional resources available will aid them in this process.

  2.  In 2006-07, payment by results (PbR) covers elective, non-elective, outpatient and A&E activity for NHS Trusts. The national price tariff underpinning the system is adjusted annually for unavoidable cost pressures. The uplift is based on the same assumptions that underpin the revenue allocations to PCTs. The uplift includes:

    —    the expected impact on pay, including Agenda for Change and the consultant contract;

    —    increases in the cost of drugs and other technology, including increases arising from NICE appraisal and guidelines;

    —    price inflation for goods and services; and,

    —    an overall 2.5% efficiency gain assumption.

  3.  For 2006-07, the total uplift for the national tariff is 4%. The components of this are shown in Table 94a.

Table 94a

NHS TARIFF UPLIFT 2006-07


2006-07 (over 2005-06 baseline)
£ millions
%

Baseline
49,806
Increase in pay and prices
Pay
1,028
2.06
Non-pay inflation (prices)
253
0.51
Clinical Negligence Costs
141
0.28
Secondary care drugs
287
0.58
Revenue cost of capital
218
0.44
Gross pay and price increase
1,927
3.87
Efficiency at 2.5% in 2006-07
-1,245
-2.50
Net pay and price increase
682
1.37
Reform and quality
Consultant Contract
50
0.10
NCCG reform
50
0.10
Agenda for Change
635
1.27
NICE appraisals and guidelines
291
0.58
Investment in new capital
101
0.20
Total reform and quality
1,127
2.26
Information Technology
NHS Connecting for Health
163
0.33
Total information technology
163
0.33
Technical adjustments
Revaluation of NHS estate
0
0.0
Total technical adjustments
0
0.0
Pay
Overall
4.0


  4.  Table 94b shows the settlements awarded to those staff whose pay arrangements are determined by the Review Bodies.

Prices

  5.  The GDP deflator is used as a proxy for underlying non-pay inflation in the NHS. This needs to be adjusted for assumptions about the level of procurement and other efficiency savings that the NHS is expected to make.

Capital Charges

  6.  At national level, the cost of capital charges paid by the NHS is a circular flow of funds. The total of the capital charges estimates made by NHS Trusts forms part of the total cash resources available through PCT allocations.

  7.  Indices for land, buildings and equipment are produced for the Department each year by the Valuation Office, in order that the NHS may calculate capital charges in advance of the financial year.

  8.  The aggregate index used to uplift capital charges from 2003-04 to 2004-05 levels was 7.6%.

Table 94b

REVIEW BODY PAY SETTLEMENTS 2006


Group
Settlement %

Nursing and Midwifery
2.50
Allied Health Professionals
2.50
Consultants Old Contract(1)
1.00
Consultants New Contract(1)
1.00
Juniors
2.20
NCCGs
2.40
FHS Doctors (GPs)
2.20

  Source:

DDRB amd NOHPRB 2005

  Footnotes:

1.  Pay settlement staged, 1% from April 2006 increasing to 2.2% from November 2006.

  5.11.2  Can the Department show trends in components of HCHS and FHS inflation indices in each year since 1997-98 in as much detail as possible? (Q95)

ANSWER

  HCHS pay and prices inflation.

  1.  Trends in the Hospital and Community Health Service (HCHS) inflation index is shown in Table 95a. The index is calculated by combining the indices for pay inflation and price inflation.

  Pay

  2.  Pay inflation is calculated as a weighted average of increase in unit staff cost for each of the staff groups within the HCHS sector.

  Prices

  3.  HCHS price inflation (ie the non-pay component) is measured by the Health Service Cost Index (HSCI). The HSCI weights together price increases for a broad range of items used by the health service—for example, drugs, medical equipment, fuel, telephone charges—using weights derived from expenditure on these various goods and services reported in financial returns.

Table 95a

TRENDS IN COMPONENTS OF THE HCHS INFLATION INDEX


1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

Total Staff Pay
2.5
4.9
6.9
7.2
8.3
5.0
7.3
4.5
Review Body Staff
2.2
5.1
7.6
7.5
9.4
5.1
8.3
3.7
Non-Review Body Staff
3.5
3.9
4.5
5.8
6.0
4.8
4.1
7.4
Prices
0.4
2.5
1.2
-0.3  
0.1
1.0
1.5
1.0
HCHS Total
1.7
4.0
4.5
4.2
5.1
3.5
5.2
3.4

  Footnotes:

  1.  Prices and total HCHS inflation for 2002-03 and 2003-04 have been updated following a validation exercise.

  2.  Pay inflation for 2004-05 includes Foundation Trusts.

  FHS Inflation

  4.  The components of the Family Health Service (FHS) inflation index are set out in Table 95b. For General Medical and Personal Medical Services (GMS/PMS) and General Dental and Personal Dental Services (GDS/PDS), service specific inflation is calculated as the increase year on year in the average cost per practitioner. For both services, the changes in unit costs include volume and quality effects (eg increase in practice staff numbers or the provision of a changing range of services) as well as pure price effects. For the Pharmaceutical Service (PhS) and General Ophthalmic Service (GOS), service inflation is assumed equal to movements in the GDP deflator.

  5.  We are currently reviewing both indices and considering alternative data sources.

Table 95b

TRENDS IN COMPONENTS OF THE FHS INFLATION INDEX


1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

GMS/PMS
5.1
2.3
10.4
3.7
1.0
5.2
9.7
n/a
GDS/PDS
0.3
4.6
1.0
4.0
2.8
4.0
1.8
2.5
PhS
2.8
2.9
2.3
1.9
2.5
3.2
2.6
2.7
GOS
2.8
2.9
2.3
1.9
2.5
3.2
2.6
2.7
FHS Total
3.0
3.0
4.1
2.7
2.1
3.9
4.6
n/a

  Footnotes:

1.  Due to increasing significance of Personal Medical and Personal Dental Services, from 2001-02 onwards,the medical and dental indices have been calculated based on combined GMS and PMS expenditure, and GDS and PDS expenditure. Prior to this only GMS and GDS figures have been used.

2.  The new GP contract was introduced from 1 April 2004, the new contract data is practice base and therefore not comparable with GMS/PMS data used for this index. As a consequence, no data is available for GMS/PMS for 2004-05.

3.  The comparatively high GMS/PMS inflation figure for 2002-03 and 2003-04 is due to a significant increase in expenditure on PMS.

4.  GDP deflator as at June 2006 have been used for PhS and GOS in 2004-05.


  5.11.3  What have trends in (a) the NHS inflation index (b) sub-indices of the NHS inflation index and (c) relative weights given to each sub-index been in each year since 1993-94? What assumptions underlie the construction of the index and any changes in weighting? (Q96)

ANSWER

  1.  The trends in the NHS inflation index and sub-indices are shown in Table 96a.

  2.  The NHS inflation index is constructed using five sub-indices. These are:

    —    HCHS pay index: This measures the change in average paybill per head of those employed within the HCHS;

    —    HCHS price inflation: This measures the change in the price of goods and services supplied to the HCHS, it is measured by the Health Service Cost Index;

    —    HCHS Capital Inflation Index: This reflects the changes in prices experienced in HCHS capital projects and is calculated using a mixture of the construction price index and the GDP deflator;

    —    FHS Index: This is produced using different assumptions for each of the main groups. Details and changes are explained in question 94. From 2004-05 the FHS index is no longer available due to the introduction of the new GMS contract leading to a discontinuity in the GMS/PMS data series; and,

    —    The "other" Index: This comprises of the revenue and capital expenditure on Central Health Miscellaneous Services (CHMS) and Departmental Administration (including the Medicines Control Agency and NHS Estates). The GDP deflator is used in the absence of service specific deflators.

  3.  The discontinuity of the FHS index also affects the construction of the NHS index. We are currently reviewing the methodology and exploring other data sources.

  4.  The weights attached to each of the elements for each of the years are shown in Table 96b.

  5.  The weights attached to each of the elements are similar in magnitude to last year; however, they have changed considerably since 2001-02. This is due to an increase in the number of PCTs from 164 to 304. PCTs have progressively taken over the commissioning of healthcare from health authorities but also the provision of some services from NHS trusts. The revenue expenditure for the provider function cannot be accurately eliminated from the total revenue expenditure hence year on year increases in total revenue expenditure are not comparable.

  6.  Change in weights (specifically FHS and HCHS) from 2002-03 is due to a shift in responsibility of healthcare to PCTs.

Table 96a

NHS INFLATION INDEX—TRENDS


Year
HCHS pay
HCHS prices
HCHS capital
FHS
Other
NHS total

1992-93
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1993-94
104.2
101.4
103.4
100.6
102.5
102.7
1994-95
107.7
102.3
112.9
102.9
103.8
105.4
1995-96
112.5
105.6
118.0
105.5
106.8
109.3
1996-97
116.2
107.2
119.7
109.0
110.2
112.4
1997-98
119.1
107.6
124.7
112.2
113.6
114.8
1998-99
124.9
110.3
128.5
115.6
116.7
119.3
1999-2000
133.5
111.6
132.1
120.3
119.5
124.8
2000-01
143.1
111.2
139.7
123.6
122.2
130.1
2001-02
155.0
111.3
148.8
126.2
125.3
136.2
2002-03
162.8
112.5
155.4
131.1
129.5
141.1
2003-04
174.7
114.1
149.5
137.2
133.2
147.9
2004-05
182.6
115.3
154.6
n/a
136.9
n/a


Table 96b

NHS INFLATION INDEX—WEIGHTS



Percentage
Year
HCHS pay
HCHS prices
HCHS capital
FHS
Other
NHS total

1992-93
49.0
21.0
6.0
21.0
3.0
100.0
1993-94
49.0
21.0
5.0
22.0
3.0
100.0
1994-95
49.0
21.0
6.0
22.0
3.0
100.0
1995-96
49.0
21.0
5.0
22.0
3.0
100.0
1996-97
50.0
21.0
4.0
23.0
2.0
100.0
1997-98
47.0
25.0
3.0
23.0
2.0
100.0
1998-99
47.0
25.0
3.0
22.0
2.0
100.0
1999-2000
46.0
24.0
3.0
24.0
2.0
100.0
2000-01
46.0
22.0
4.0
26.0
2.0
100.0
2001-02
47.0
21.0
4.0
26.0
2.0
100.0
2002-03
48.0
32.0
4.0
14.0
2.0
100.0
2003-04
45.0
30.0
4.0
18.0
2.0
100.0
2004-05
47.0
32.0
4.0
14.0
2.0
100.0


5.12  Efficiency

  5.12.1  What progress has been made towards a replacement for the Cost Weighted Activity Index? What assessment has been made of recent trends in NHS productivity? (Q97)

ANSWER

  1.  To measure progress against the 2002 spending review value for money PSA target, the Department developed an interim cost efficiency measure. The measure is calculated by comparing increases in NHS expenditure adjusted for both input cost inflation and increases in expenditure on improving the quality of NHS services, with increases in NHS outputs as calculated by the new NHS output index. This latter index, replaced the Cost Weighted Activity Index (CWAI) and is calculated using data primarily published in the "National Schedule of Reference Costs" and using over 1,900 individual activity categories. The new NHS Outputs index represents an improvement over the old CWAI, as:

    —    CWAI only included 12 activity types and placed 60% of the expenditure weight on in-patients and a further 20% of the weight on outpatients which means;

    —    CWAI gave no credit for more complex case-mix; and

    —    By shifting activity to more cost effective settings, such as from in-patients to outpatients, CWAI reduced recorded output (whilst still an issue with the new NHS Outputs index, its effect is minimised).

  In addition;

    —    CWAI had a secondary care focus and failed to include new types of NHS activity; and

    —    quality of care was not considered.

  2.  One of the principal recommendations of the "Atkinson Review of the Measurement of Government Output and Productivity for the National Accounts" was that quality of care should be included in NHS output and productivity measures. In response to the Atkinson Review, on 7 December 2005, the Department published "Healthcare Output and Productivity: Accounting for Quality Change" a technical paper which explains progress in developing more accurate methods of measuring healthcare output and productivity, including quality change. The paper builds on the key recommendations of the Atkinson Review, research by the University of York, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), and by the Department.

  3.  On 27 February 2006, ONS published their second article on health productivity "Public Service Productivity: Health". ONS estimate that including adjustments for quality, (originally outlined in "Accounting for Quality Change") such as lower hospital mortality, estimated benefits from hospital treatment, shorter waiting times, improved blood pressure control, lives saved from statins, in addition to the increasing value of health, NHS productivity has risen on average by up to 1.6% a year between 1999 and 2004.

  5.12.2  What are the expected redundancy costs of the current re-organisation of Strategic Health Authorities and Primary Care Trusts? (Q98)

ANSWER

  1.  There will be a number of redundancies in SHAs and PCTs following the restructuring brought about by Commissioning a Patient-Led NHS.

  2.  Redundancy costs are very heavily influenced by the number and age profile of the staff leaving. The detail is not yet finalised, but assuming an average profile costs estimates would be somewhere around £325 million under existing NHS redundancy rules.

5.13  Managing the Department of Health

  5.13.1  What was the total expenditure, grant-in-aid funding and whole time equivalent staffing of each of the Department of Health's Arm's Length Bodies in 2005-06? (Q99)

ANSWER

  The information requested is given in Table 99.

Table 99

GRANT IN AID, EXPENDITURE AND STAFFING OF ARM'S LENGTH BODIES IN 2005-06


Department of Health
Arm's Length Body
Grant in Aid
(see note 7)
Gross Operating
Costs (see note 8)
Headcount
WTE
Information Source

£ thousands
£ thousands
Healthcare Commission (HC)
  68,851
     76,879
     780
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Mental Health Act Commission (MHAC)
    5,310
       5,665
       42
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Commission for Social Care Inspection (CSCI)
  82,864
   141,153
  2,479
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Independent Regulator of NHS Foundation Trusts (Monitor)
  16,200
     15,869
       49
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Commission for Patient and Public Involvement in Health (CPPIH)
  31,515
     30,458
     173
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA)
    5,489
     10,933
     190
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Human tissue Authority (HTA)
    1,224
       1,201
       18
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Council for Healthcare Regulatory Excellence (CHRE)
    2,232
       2,399
     116
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
General Social Care Council (GSCC)
  10,675
     13,293
     237
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Postgraduate Medical Education and Training Board (PMETB)
    3,229
       5,145
       15
Provisional figures given
by DoF John Tuck
Dental Vocational Training Authority (DVTA)
       272
          222
         3
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA)
  63,000
     70,000
     819
Provisional figures given
by MHRA Brian Pocknall
National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE)
  27,031
     26,178
     185
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
National Patient Safety Agency (NPSA)
  32,935
     33,264
     304
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Health Protection Agency (HPA)
142,655
   227,296
  3,012
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
National Biological Standards Board (NBSB)
  10,807
     17,425
     302
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
National Treatment Agency (NTA)
  12,187
     12,219
     137
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
National Blood & Transplant
(NHS BT)
  37,728
   402,830
  5,986
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
NHS Litigation Authority (NHS LA)
           0
     13,022
     167
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Health and Social Care Information Centre (HSC IC)
  43,843
     44,316
     358
Fig from the Draft
2005-06 Annual Accounts
NHS Connecting for Health (NHS CfH) (12)
           0
   538,321
  1,412
Fig from Connecting
for Health data
NHS Institute for Innovation and Improvement (NIII)
  37,970
     42,478
     701
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
NHS Appointments Commission (NHSAC)
    4,156
       5,420
       57
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
NHS BSA
       432
          477
         3
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Prescription Pricing Authority (PPA)
  74,054
     73,749
  2,849
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Dental Practice Board (DPB)
  23,811
     27,104
     250
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
NHS Pensions Agency (NHSPA)
  27,595
     27,249
     391
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
NHS Counter Fraud and Security Management Service (NHS CFSMS)
  16,474
     17,719
     268
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
NHS Purchasing and Supply Agency (NHS PASA)
  25,843
     26,497
     350
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
NHS Logistics
           0
     72,100
  1,474
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
NHS Direct (NHS D)
    7,296
   149,136
  3,154
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
NHS Professionals (NHS P)
  43,927
     32,950
     649
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
NHS Estates (NHS E)
    2,288
       6,323
     207
Fig from 2005-06
Annual Accounts
Total
861,893
2,169,290
27,033

  Source: As stated in table.

  Footnotes:

  1.  The Human Tissue Authority came into being on 1 April 2005 and hence is a new ALB this year.

  2.  Health Development Agency merged with the National Institute for Clinical Excellence on 1 April 2005 and hence is not on this years' list.

  3.  National Clinical Assessment Authority merged with the National Patient Safety Agency on 1 April 2005 and hence is not on this years list.

  4.  NHS Modernisation Agency (NHSMA) and NHSU merged to form the NHS Institute for Innovation and Improvement (NIII).

  5.  National Blood Authority and UK Transplant Merged mid year to form NHS Blood and Transplant and are shown as the new body. The Income and Expenditure shown above is comprised of the sixmonths to 30 September 2005 of NBA and UKT and six months to 31 March 2006 of NHS BT.

  6.  NHS BSA has run in shadow form in 2005-06 and whilst not part of the ALB sector until it goes live in 2006-07 is included here for completeness.

  7.  NHS Information Service dissolved. The Health and Social Care Information Centre and NHS connecting for Health (NHS CfH) were created to move IT inthe Health sector forward.

  8.  NHS Estates (NHSE) was dissolved mid year, figures shown to closure at 30 September 2006.

  9.  Grant in Aid refers to Revenue only.

10.  Gross operating costs exclude:

Depreciation and Amortisation.

Capital Charges.

Profit/Loss on Disposal of Fixed Assets.

Impairments.

  11.  The figures for Connecting for Health (CfH) comprise those for the whole agency, as it is not possible to provide a breakdown for that element of their organisation that was previously part of the NHS Information Authority. As part of the Department of Health, CfH receives an allocation of DH funds rather than Grant in Aid. The figure given in the "Gross Operating Costs" column is the near-cash spend of CfH for 2005-06, which excludes the non-cash items listed in note 10. The figure of 1,412 represents CfH headcount not WTEs.

  5.13.2  Could the Department detail and comment on the extent of savings from its own change programme and the review of Arm's Length Bodies? What further savings are anticipated in 2006-07 and 2007-08? What risk assessment has been undertaken to accompany these change programmes and to indicate the limits to further savings? What have the redundancy and relocation costs of these change programmes been? (Q100)

ANSWER

  1.  The Change Programme was undertaken to support the transformation of the whole NHS and social care system. The predominant aim was to have a smaller strategic Department with operational responsibility devolved throughout the health and social care system. There was no specific financial target set as part of the DH Change Programme. However, the administration costs agreed in the 2004 Spending Review reflected the reduction in size and shape of the Department as a consequence of the Change Programme.

  2.  From the review of arm's length bodies (ALBS), £55 million recurrent cash releasing savings were achieved in 2005-06 and a further £95 million is expected in 2006-07 and £50 million in each of the following two years.

  3.  The Department's Change Programme was managed as a project, and operational risks—for example, the risk of failing to complete the necessary human resources work to the planned timetable—were managed using project management principles. The risk assessments for these were reviewed by the Programme Board regularly. in addition, the Change Programme presented a variety of strategic risks to the Department's business, for example the possibility of a sustained decline in morale, or that the balance of skills in the Department's staff might not match the needs of the continuing business. These were not subject to formal risk assessments in the same way, but were reviewed by senior managers and the Departmental Board during the course of the programme.

  4.  The limits to further savings are also subject to continuing review, in the light of changes to the Department's workload. Savings in future years will be settled as part of the Comprehensive Spending Review.

  5.  ALBs' capability to deliver these savings has been assessed in an extensive business planning cycle for each body covering this year and the next two. In addition, delivery will be monitored using the Department's standard performance management procedures for its ALBs including quarterly balanced scorecards and review meetings with the bodies themselves.

  6.  Transition costs for relocation and redundancies as a result of the ALB review were £10 million in 2005-06 and are expected to be around £13 million in 2006-07.

  5.13.3  Could the Department detail (a) administrative and (b) programme expenditure on consultants in 2005-06? Could the Department comment on these data and the quality of them? (Q101)

ANSWER

  1.  DH expenditure on consultancy services for 2005-06 is given in Table 101.

  2.  We have previously been unable to report spending against our programme budgets due to definitional difficulties. For example, the term "consultancy" is very broad and not well defined; this has led to a number of financial transactions being scored inappropriately.

  3.  To assist in the re-coding of data and for the purpose of interpretative analysis, we have now defined "consultancy" where all of the following criteria are met:

    —    an arrangement where an individual or organisation is engaged to provide expert analysis and advice which facilitates decision making;

    —    to perform a specific one off task or set of tasks; and,

    —    to perform a task involving skills or perspectives which would not normally be found within the Department.

  4.  We have undertaken considerable work to validate the 2005-06 programme and administrative data, and this has enabled us to provide a much more accurate figure for consultancy expenditure.

Table 101

DH EXPENDITURE ON CONSULTANCY SERVICES, 2005-06


£ millions

Administrative expenditure
   6.0
Programme expenditure
127.0
Total
133.0





 
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