Q120 Jon Trickett: In that case,
can you provide the Committee with a note as to the Department's
assessment of the number of houses which would need to be built,
not simply to meet the growing demand for housing but also to
eat into the backlog? What is your Department's assessment of
that?
Dame Mavis McDonald: The Department
is not currently analysing what its policies for housing supply
are on that basis.
Q121 Chairman: Why not? This question
is absolutely key. It is the only question in a sense that matters
and I am staggered that you cannot answer it.
Dame Mavis McDonald: Because the
proposals in the five year plan set out what the current priorities
are for the next three years, which are about increasing the new
supply which does get to Kate Barker's figures.
Q122 Jon Trickett: I am not asking
you to describe what the Department is doing. I am asking you
to provide your analysis of what would be required to begin to
eat into the backlog as well as to meet the increasing demand.
I am not asking you to describe what the ministers are doing or
what the government's programme is. What is your analysis of the
additional number of new homes in the social sector which would
be required, first of all, to meet the increased demand which
is growing every year because of household changes and, secondly,
to begin to eat into the backlog? I do not think it is a difficult
question.
Dame Mavis McDonald: We will give
you a note on the way in which we assess housing need currently.[7]
Q123 Chairman: Why can you not answer
the question now?
Dame Mavis McDonald: Because I
do not know whether—
Q124 Chairman: Why do you not know?
Dame Mavis McDonald: Because it
has not been a priority on the part of this Government or previous
governments to assess that figure. This series by Alan Holmans
was started in 1996.
Q125 Chairman: Why not?
Dame Mavis McDonald: Because it
is not necessarily meaningful in terms of day to day policies
and in terms of the capacity and resources available—
Q126 Chairman: Why is it not meaningful
to know the amount of accommodation you need to deal with the
homelessness problem?
Dame Mavis McDonald: We do know
the amount of accommodation we need to deal with the homelessness
problem as we define it but this figure here is not necessarily
about the homelessness problem; it is about a picture of the totality
of the housing market.
Q127 Mr Curry: I would like to come
to the rescue because I think that reply is entirely reasonable.
Homelessness is a movable feast. There is nothing religious about
Barker. This is not the Old Testament or the Book of Revelations.
Barker was based on a series of household projections which go
forward over 20 years or so. There is significant dispute about
the methodology she used and about the census figures she used,
which were not always the most up to date figures. There is a
very big argument. This is a speculative report and it has never
been anything more than a speculative report. Therefore, any government
which said Barker is a religious certainty is out of its tiny
mind. Dame Mavis may not agree with my assessment of Barker but
it might be helpful if she said if she did or not.
Dame Mavis McDonald: I agree totally
with your assessment that this is an estimate based on some methodologies
about which there has been a lot of debate and which is very difficult
to prove one way or the other. It is not an unreasonable way of
doing it, but it is not necessarily a figure on which to set the
policy parameters when ministers are choosing how to spend scarce
resources.
Q128 Mr Curry: Have we an ethnic
breakdown of homelessness?
Dame Mavis McDonald: Yes.
Q129 Mr Curry: Does that illuminate
our debate in any way? Does it give us any insight?
Ms Alafat: We know it depends
on where you are in the country, obviously. Not surprisingly,
in areas where there is a very high BME (Black and Minority Ethnic)
population they also have a very high level of statistics. For
example, Newham, Hackney and other areas. Across the country,
we also know that BME households appear to be three times as likely
to become homeless.
Q130 Mr Curry: Which households?
Ms Alafat: Black and minority
ethnic households. We have also just commissioned some research
by Ethnos which is providing us with a lot more information about
what has been going on out there and we will be publishing that
within the next few months. That provides a much more detailed
picture.
Q131 Mr Curry: Would you expect to
draw conclusions as to the way policy is modified, adapted or
progressed in the light of that? Is it an ethnic specific problem?
Ms Alafat: I would not conclude
that. It is more about the diversity of need and the diversity
of provision and does it meet the need. What we will be publishing
alongside the results of the research are good practice guidance
and guidelines so that we are promoting best practice.
Q132 Jon Trickett: It is easy to
caricature our position and then destroy the caricature. That
is what just happened. I did not ask any questions about Barker
at all. We saw that Barker had come up with some predictions and
they can be agreed with or disagreed with but that was not what
I was asking. I was asking the Department what the Department's
view was about housing supply, its projections about demographic
change which will determine the number of households and therefore
what its calculations were about the necessary increase in the
housing supply within the social sector over the next five or
six years in order to tackle both the growing homelessness problem
and to eat into the backlog. At no stage, if you refer to the
verbatim, did I say anything about Barker at all.
Dame Mavis McDonald: In that case
I misunderstood you because I thought you were asking me to take
away the 400,000 figure and—
Q133 Jon Trickett: No. I was asking
for the Department's estimates of what was needed in terms of
housing supply.
Dame Mavis McDonald: The figures
in terms of housing supply overall are also in Homes for All.
There is a projection in the high demand areas of a figure of
over 200,000 extra houses right across the private sector and
the social rented sector and all points in between, which would
bring the total new housing by 2016 in London, the south east
and the eastern region up to 1.1 million.
Q134 Jon Trickett: Can I ask that
Dame Mavis looks at my questions in the verbatim, if it could
be sent to her, so that she can try to respond to the questions
I have been asking rather than the questions I have not?
Dame Mavis McDonald: I apologise
if that was not the answer to the question you just asked me but
I genuinely believed that that was the question you just asked
me.
Q135 Mr Jenkins: The Report says
there are 100,000 households in temporary accommodation now compared
with 40,000 in 1997 so we have lost 60,000. I thought Mr Trickett
was asking you how you overcome that 60,000 gap that has grown
and get it back to close to zero. It is as simple as that. It
is not difficult.
Dame Mavis McDonald: I am sorry;
I am really not clear now what I am being asked.
Chairman: That probably concludes our
hearing. It has been a very interesting hearing. We know that
there are 100,000 people in temporary accommodation and we look
forward to reading your notes as to how we are going to resolve
the situation. Thank you very much.
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