Declining passenger numbers
9. Bus deregulation has been with us for a little
over twenty years. It has failed to arrest the decline in bus
passenger numbers since 1950 but neither has it accelerated it.
Statistics show that since 1985 journeys outside London have fallen
whilst journeys in the capital have increased significantly, exceeding
the 1985-86 figures. Journeys in the rest of the country have
declined,[5] as the tables
below demonstrate:
Table 1: Bus passenger journeys, 1980-2005
Source: DfT statistics
Table 2: Passenger use of buses and light
rail, 1995-96 to 2003-04
Source: National Audit Office analysis of Department
for Transport statistics
Table 3: Reported use of buses and light
rail, nationally and by region, 2000-01 to 2004-05
In
the five years to 2004-05, bus and light rail use has increased
by nearly eight per cent in England and has fallen in all regions
outside London
Source: Department for Transport
10. The Department for Transport estimates that passenger
numbers will increase by five per cent in Passenger Transport
Authority (PTA) areas and by 14 per cent in other areas as a result
of the concessionary fares extension that came into force on 1
April 2006. Local authorities' draft LTPs forecast average growth
in bus use of eight per cent between 2006 and 2011. Expected growth
is shown in the table below:Table
4: The Department's projections of passenger growth on buses and
light rail
Source: Department for Transport
11. The picture of decline is more complex than it
would appear at first glance. Although there is an overall downward
trend outside London, there are areas of the country where decline
has been tackled and reversed. When asked for their views on the
general trend, witnesses offered different reasons for the decline
in ridership; they told us that it is likely that some decline
in bus use was inevitable given structural changes in the economy,
rising prosperity and increased car ownership. As Mr Stephen Joseph
of Transport 2000 said: "I think fundamentally … in
a situation where the real costs of motoring have been falling
and bus fares have been increasing above the rate of inflation,
it is very difficult in any context … to make bus patronage
add up".[6] As did
the Minister, Gillian Merron MP:
Bus use has been declining steadily since the
1950s and the last few years have been no exception. We know that
the background to all of this is sustained economic growth, with
an increase in personal wealth and an understandable desire to
own and use cars, which contributes, of course, to a corresponding
decline in bus use.[7]
12. Other reasons given were population changes and
poor planning. [8]
For example, Arriva told us:
There have been significant population changes
in major urban areas over the last 10 years; all the metropolitan
conurbations outside London saw reductions in population in the
10 years up to the 2001 census, some by up to nine per cent (Manchester).
Each metropolitan area now has a large regional shopping centres
situated away from traditional shopping areas; there are similar
trends in leisure and employment.[9]
13. Decline is not universal, however. There are
places where ridership has increased. These include examples in
a regulated[10] and deregulated[11]
environment, but tend to be in small historic towns or in areas
with municipal bus companies. While some have required a big increase
in subsidy, others have been achieved without significant public
money. Witnesses from these successful areas, such as Brighton
and Hove, cited partnership as the key to success,[12]
as did the Association of Transport Co-ordinating Officers (ATCO).[13]
14. This, it is argued, demonstrates that it is not
really the regulatory regime that is the problem, what is needed
to reverse passenger decline is more research into what potential
users want; improved services; better promotion; and a pro-active
attitude by local government towards traffic constraint. Mr John
Waugh, Uni-Link, told us that it was as simple as 'giving the
people what they want':
Can I quote from a report from the British Psychological
Society, quoted in Local Transport Today? They said, "Our
participants [in the survey] did not feel 'valued' or listened
to by transport operators and so felt unable to bring about improvements
in services". That lay behind all our efforts at the university
to introduce a service over which we had better control and which
we felt would offer much better service to our people. Having
done so, we have achieved amazing results.[14]
15. Those successful local authorities who gave evidence
to the Committee were asked whether they believed that their achievements
could be replicated in the metropolitan Passenger Transport Authority
(PTA) areas. Mr Paul Crowther, Brighton and Hove, told us: "…where
you have a dense urban network of population, these models have
got the potential for working very, very well".[15]
Mr Bill Woolley, York City Council, agreed that successful models
could be transplanted into PTA areas, but there had to be a willingness
to make it work:
…when I looked at some comparative figures
between ourselves and two big urban conurbations, where the bus
operator in question was claiming that they had put in exactly
the same approach in all three and had a graph which showed our
growth was certainly well ahead of the other two, their view was
that it was the local authority's willingness to be partners in
a way that gave them what they were book looking for, recognising
that any partnership to be successful both parties have got to
get something out of it.[16]
16. Nonetheless PTA areas appear united in the belief
that they cannot achieve their objectives and turn around decline
within the present framework.
17. Bus patronage figures have been in decline
since the 1950s. Nationally, that decline has not been reversed
since the introduction of deregulation in 1985, although journeys
in London have increased. We welcome the Government's commitment
to look at this problem from first principles and to put into
place any new arrangements that may be required. Modal shift from
car to bus is vital if the United Kingdom is to properly tackle
congestion and reduce carbon emissions.
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