APPENDIX 31
Memorandum submitted by the East London
Line Group
INTRODUCTION
This memorandum sets out the East London Line
Group's assessment of the relationship between the planned extensions
to the East London Line, and the 2012 Olympic Games. We respond
to a number of the Transport Committee's questions of 27 July
2005 (see summary below).
IN SUMMARY:
1. Will the Government's Spending Agreement
with the Mayor provide adequate funding to deliver excellent transport
for London's 2012 Olympic Games?
Although the Government's Spending Agreement
with the Mayor has allowed progress to be made on the much-needed
Phase 1 extension of the East London Line, which will be completed
in time for the Games, it did not provide a commitment for Phase
2 of the extensions to be taken forward. Phase 2 will provide
a considerable transport capacity increase to the East London
area, and could be completed in time for the Olympics if given
an early go-ahead. Canonbury will provide a direct interchange
between the extended ELL and the North London Line to the Olympic
Park. Those arriving at Clapham Junction would be offered another
way of accessing the Olympic sites around London and the connection
at Highbury would strengthen the link with the main underground
system. Without Phase 2 London's potential to deliver "excellent"
transport for the Games is impaired.
We urge the Committee to recommend that the
Government and TfL give financial authorisation to Phase 2 of
the East London Extensions at the earliest opportunity. Only with
this timely commitment will Olympics spectators traveling from
South London to the East London venues be able to gain the maximum
benefit in improved accessibility brought about by the ELL project.
2. How will the transport projects needed
for the Games fit into an integrated and long term transport plan
for London?
The completion of both phases of the East London
Line Extension Project will:
— sizeably reduce congestion on the
existing rail network, especially on journeys to London Bridge
and the Northern Line, and to Waterloo, Victoria and the Thameslink
stations;
— promote orbital rail services between
north, east and south London reducing the need to interchange
and thus relieving congestion at the terminal stations in central
London;
— and, improve accessibility by public
transport to key areas that are poorly served, including parts
of Docklands, Hackney, Lambeth, Lewisham and Southwark.
Only on completion of Phase 2 of the East London
Line extensions will the full benefits of the project be fully
brought to life.
3. Will the transport legacy be appropriate
to the needs of east London in the next two to three decades?
The full completion of the East London Line
Project (phases 1 and 2) will be a catalyst for £10 billion
worth of regeneration. The scheme represents a prime example of
integrated transport, providing a local, commuter and cross-London
service linking with the Underground, main line railways, Docklands
Light Rail, Croydon Tramlink and buses. Following completion of
Phase 1 and 2 journey times from north and south London to the
City, Docklands and Central London will be significantly reduced.
Linking areas north and south of the river with transport services
into the City will present local residents with new opportunities
for employment and assist greatly with regeneration efforts. The
route of the northern extension will bring more people who live
and work in north-east London within easy reach of the Underground
network. The proposed line passes through Hackney, one of the
most densely populated boroughs in Britain, where there are currently
few rail services and only one Underground station. However, in
the coming decades East London will require more than just phase
1 of the East London Line extension to secure its "Olympic
Legacy". The completion of Phase 2 will bequeath an orbital
train service around inner London that will benefit future generation.
EAST LONDON
LINE GROUP'S
ASSESSMENT OF
THE RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN THE
PLANNED EXTENSIONS
TO THE
EAST LONDON
LINE, AND
THE 2012 OLYMPIC
GAMES
The East London Line Group
The East London Line Group is a consortium of
local authorities, business, regeneration agencies and other interested
parties, seeking the earliest go-ahead for the extensions.
Background to the East London Line extensions
Extensions to the East London Line were planned
during the 1990s. Powers were granted in 1997 for a northern extension
from Whitechapel towards the North London Line, and in 2001 for
extensions south and south west onto the South London national
rail network. The project's main promoter is now Transport for
London.
The Government approved Transport for London's
(TfL's) business plan for the extensions in 2003. This included
services north to Dalston Junction and Highbury & Islington,
south to New Cross, Crystal Palace, West Croydon, and south west
to Peckham and Clapham Junction. The project was approved because
of transport and accessibility benefits to an arc of deprived
boroughs in inner London, and because of the project's benefits
for major regeneration schemes worth up to £10 billion of
investment. A fuller statement on benefits is attached as Annex
A.
Funding for a first phase of the extensions
was approved as part of the Government's 5 Year Spending Agreement
with the Mayor of London in July 2004. This included work on all
the physical extensions to comply with the powers granted, and
approval for services to Dalston Junction, Crystal Palace and
West Croydon. It excluded final completion of the south west link
to Peckham and Clapham Junction, and services to Highbury &
Islington.
At the time, the Mayor of London announced:
"It's excellent news that the Government has accepted my
proposal that TfL should take over construction of the urgently
needed East London Line extension and agreed the borrowing approval
we need. The first phase of this project is a big boost for everyone
in east and south London who have campaigned for this vital new
tube line. It also shows the Government's and my total commitment
to London's Olympic bid." (Mayor's press statement 20 July
2004)
Transport demand with the 2012 Olympic Games
In general, the level of funding directed to
TfL transport improvements is intended to provide assurance of
adequate capacity plus a margin, during the busiest period of
the Olympic Games. This comprises new initiatives, plus projects
which were already in the pipeline to improve London's transport.
TfL's underlying proposition is that travel
demand in London is lower in the summer than the winter, particularly
in the summer holiday period which is when the Olympic Games are
scheduled. Consequently there should be capability overall for
London's transport network to absorb the impact of the Games in
2012.
TfL has modelled demand at the many Olympic
Games sites, and planning for spectator and workforce travel is
based on 100% use of public transport to access the venues. (The
Olympic Family will be using dedicated car, coach and bus facilities.)
Rail is forecast to be the dominant public transport mode, with
65-82% of spectator travel at selected locations—78% at
the Olympic Park). 78% of spectators are forecast to travel from
within London, on any one day.[8]
8
Practical benefits of the East London Line extensions
for the 2012 Olympic Games
The East London Line Group had proposed in 2003
that direct ELL services (planned to terminate at Dalston Junction)
could be extended to the Olympic Park site, via a disused railway
curve at Dalston onto the North London Line towards Stratford.
The planning timescale would have permitted acquisition of powers
and its construction. It would have offered particular access
benefits for South London, where few areas have direct access
to the Olympic Park. There would be a legacy benefit with central
Hackney and the Lower Lea Valley linked more closely with other
parts of London. However, TfL decided not to take forward the
ELLG proposal.
An initial phase of East London Line extensions
to Dalston is nevertheless seen by TfL as contributing importantly
to the Olympic Games because:
— it is a project which can be guaranteed
to be up and running in 2010, well before 2012;
— it provides cross-river capacity
in inner East and South East London, and via transport interchanges
improves the accessibility of numerous Games' locations on both
sides of the river; and
— it creates a north-south public transport
bypass for Central London, with capacity relief for congestion
pinch-points such as London Bridge, and a level of resilience
if access to parts of Central London was curtailed for any reason.
The East London Line Group also notes that the
ELL extensions create a north-south public transport bypass for
the Lower Lea Valley Corridor which includes the Olympic Park
and other sites. This again provides capacity relief for congestion
pinch-points and a level of resilience if access was restricted
for any reason.
So the East London Line project's relevance
to the Olympic Games is now directly linked to:
— its cross-river capacity;
— its extent within London particularly
the benefits of its interchanges.
Each point is now taken in turn.
Cross-river capacity on the East London Line
Benefits of the cross-river ELL capacity are
dependent on changes between 2005 and 2012:
— the actual hourly train capacity
offered;
— the growth in London public transport
demand, including the extended East London Line.
The 2005 ELL train service has a maximum 2-way
capacity of 14,240 passengers per hour with fully loaded trains.[9]
9, [10]10
There is an hourly maximum of 10 London Underground four-car trains
in each direction. The basic off-peak service is nine trains per
hour. Eight inner London stations are served all week, and a ninth
(Shoreditch) at specific times.
In 2010, maximum two-way capacity will be 18,000
passengers per hour with fully loaded trains.[11]
11 [12]12
The initial phase of ELL extensions expands the railway by over
two miles northwards, and over 8 miles southwards, and 20 stations
will be served. However TfL only plans to increase the peak train
service through the Thames Tunnel by two trains per hour (tph)
in each direction, from 10 to 12. The off-peak service will also
be 12 tph.
The East London Line Group recognises that passenger
flows to and from the various Olympic Games' sites will be spread
over a number of hours, so that the cumulative capacity of the
East London Line should be significant providing there is marginal
capacity available.
Contrasting the Phase 1 growth in the total
number of stations served (122%) with the relatively limited expansion
in hourly line capacity (26%), gives rise to the question of whether
TfL's proposals will offer sufficient additional capacity on the
ELL to provide real relief during the Olympic Games.
Most of the stations to be served exist already,
though not those in Hackney. So the key external driver will be
the change in demography by 2012 in the corridor served by the
extended East London Line. Individual boroughs in inner East and
South East London are projecting major increases in population
and economic activity between 2005 and 2012 [see Annex B], linked
to London's overall regeneration and economic growth.
Overall, the demographic indicators suggest
that London's growth alone can swallow up most or all of the extra
ELL capacity. Also there will be a strong stimulus to increased
usage of the line, because of the extra connectivity created by
the extended railway including the cross-river link between North
and South London. The East London Line Group therefore considers
that the actual capacity available during the Olympic Games, under
TfL's current plan, will be much less than is desirable—and
less than is possible.
Increasing East London Line capacity
Because of the constraints at the Phase 1 termini,
further extensions in some form are essential to increase the
line's practical capacity. TfL advises that the second phase of
ELL extensions currently planned, north west to Highbury &
Islington and south west to Peckham and Clapham Junction, will
enable train frequency to increase to 16 tph in each direction.
Transport for London and Network Rail are now analysing options
for the orbital cross-London routes, and this work should be complete
by 2006, which would allow decisions to be taken on Phase 2 with
an adequate timescale before the Olympic Games.
Subject to the outcome of these cross-London
route studies, the East London Line Group supports the early financial
authorisation of the Phase 2 extensions, to achieve greater cross-river
capacity ahead of the 2012 Olympic Games. Realistically the next
opportunity for additional funding approval will be as part of
the 2007 Comprehensive Spending Review. Authorisation will also
help the early regeneration and economic renewal of the additional
catchments served. We ask the Transport Select Committee to recommend
this course of action.
The Group considers that 16 tph is still low
compared to the future signalled capacity of the line which will
be 24 tph. This is a waste of cross-river rail capacity in London,
and, after allowing a margin for robust timetabling, a higher
frequency may be possible, up to 20 tph. The table below shows
the capacity achieved with different levels of train frequency.
FUTURE HOURLY 2-WAY CAPACITY, BASED ON ELL
PROJECT SPECIFICATION:
Year
|
Trains per hour | Passengers per hour
(2-way)
| % capacity change
(2005 = 100%)
|
2005 | 10 tph |
14,240 (TfL existing) | |
| 2010 | 12 tph | 18,000
| +26% |
| 2012 if ELL Phase 1 | 12 tph
| 18,000 (TfL planned) | +26%
|
| 2012 if ELL Phase 2 | 16 tph
| 24,000 (ELLG proposal) | +69%
|
| Maximum use of ELL | 20 tph
| 30,000 (potential) | +111%
|
| |
| |
EAST LONDON
LINE'S
EXTENT WITHIN
LONDON, INCLUDING
INTERCHANGES
The main Olympic Games' sites near to the East London Line,
and interchanges offered in the first phase of ELL extensions,
are:
Olympic Games sites |
Maximum spectators/session | ELL interchanges
|
Olympic Park | 150,600 (cumulative, all sites)
| Whitechapel (District/Hammersmith)
Canada Water (Jubilee)
|
| | Dalston Junction (by bus)
|
| UEL Docklands | 13,200 |
Shadwell (DLR) |
| ExCeL | 41,700 | Shadwell (DLR)
|
| The Dome | 31,800 | Canada Water (Jubilee)
|
| Greenwich Arena | 10,400 |
Canada Water (Jubilee) |
| Greenwich Park | 34,800 |
New Cross, New Cross Gate, Surrey Quays
(all by bus)
|
| |
|
The quality of a number of these interchanges is imperfect.
Canada Water is a modern purpose-built interchange constructed
as part of the Jubilee Line extension. Dalston Junction is intended
by TfL to have a new bus station interchange. However:
— Whitechapel is cramped and dependent on either
the London Underground PPP and/or the Crossrail project for a
major rebuild.
— The interchange between ELL and DLR at Shadwell
requires a walk through the street.
— Bus interchange arrangements at New Cross, New
Cross Gate and Surrey Quays are the traditional style of "head-into-the-street-and-search-for-your-bus-stop".
The East London Line Group believes that these interchanges
should receive specific TfL funding for their upgrade ahead of
the Olympic Games, and that the Whitechapel PPP upgrade should
be prioritised. This would provide a legacy benefit for generations
of Londoners.
With Phase 2 of the ELL extensions, additional rail interchanges
served are:
Interchange | Benefit of interchange for Olympics travel
|
Highbury & Islington | Access from North London rail via ELL to Olympics sites south of river
|
| Canonbury | Direct transfer from main ELL onto North London Line for rail access to Olympic Park entrances at Hackney Wick and Stratford
|
| Peckham Rye | Connection from South London rail services onto ELL for Olympic sites in Docklands and Olympic Park, also relief of London Bridge station
|
| Clapham High Street | Connection from Northern Line, relief of London Bridge station
|
| Clapham Junction | Connection from wide catchment of South West London, relief of routes via Central London
|
| |
For access to the Olympic Park and other sites, the authorisation
of Phase 2 of the ELL extensions would have a particular benefit
for South London, which under current proposals has few direct
railway links to the Olympic Games
Overall:
— the combination of a higher ELL service frequency,
to the Phase 2 service level of 16 trains per hour in each direction;
— funding and prioritisation of upgrades for a number
of Phase 1 extension interchanges; and
— funding of the full ELL Phase 2 extension, with
completion before 2012;
will provide a substantial and important margin of capacity
relief for the Olympics, and achieve long-lasting legacy benefits
which will be important to the catchments.
12 September 2005
Annex A
BENEFITS OF THE EAST LONDON LINE PROJECT FROM THE EAST
LONDON LINE PROJECT WEBSITE, AUGUST 2005
The project benefits can be summarised as follows:
— A catalyst for £10 billionn worth of regeneration.
— Patronage will increase by 300% by 2021.
— Train frequency to increase by 60% through the
central section (this includes the planned Phase 2 services)
— Phase 1 will be delivered by June 2010, in good
time to support the Olympic bid.
Transport for London provided an assessment of "The
Wider Economic and Social Benefits to London", a report that
formed part of the Business Case for the extended East London
Line submitted to Government by the Strategic Rail Authority in
September 2002. The report looks at how the East London Line Project
will support London's growth at the strategic level and how increased
accessibility will help facilitate the regeneration of local communities
and the greater social inclusion of those in need.
From the Invitation to Prequalify for the East London Line
main works contract, June 2005
2.3.1 The East London Line Project aims to further the
Mayor of London's Transport Strategy (www.london.gov.uk/mayor/strategies/transport)
by providing better public transport for the growing number of
people who live and work in London. Specifically it will:
— reduce congestion on the existing rail network,
especially on journeys to London Bridge and the Northern Line
(via Bank), and to Waterloo, Victoria and the Thameslink stations;
— reduce journey times from outer London to Docklands,
the City and other parts of inner London;
— promote orbital rail services between north, east
and south London, reducing the need to interchange and thus relieving
congestion at the terminal stations in central London;
— improve accessibility by public transport to key
areas that are poorly served, including parts of Docklands, Hackney,
Lambeth, Lewisham and Southwark;
— integrate the London Underground and the network
in inner London and link them with other modes of transport including
buses and light rail; and
— meet the growing demand for railway services,
making full use of a valuable river crossing in east London.
2.3.2 By giving more people the choice to use the railway
for their journeys rather than rely on buses or cars, the East
London Line Project will relieve congestion on the roads in and
around central London, especially the South Circular Road, the
roads through Lewisham and the Rotherhithe Tunnel, and the New
North Road and Kingsland Road to Aldgate.
2.3.3 The East London Line Project also has wider socio-economic
and environmental objectives, and is intended to:
— promote local economic regeneration in areas of
significant deprivation, providing enhanced employment opportunities
and greater social inclusion; and
— improve the environment in the area by improving
air quality and reducing emissions of carbon dioxide.
Annex B
PROJECTED CHANGES IN POPULATION AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
IN THE ELL CATCHMENT
OVERALL GROWTH
The East London Line and its extensions serve the areas of
highest growth projected in the London Plan:
— "Of the 600,000 plus new jobs projected for
London by 2016, the external forecasts for the London Plan indicate
460,000 being in financial and business services… The figures
used in the London Plan…are moderately conservative…
the city and its fringes, and Docklands, will continue to be the
main growth areas for employment in financial and business services"
[GLA, Planning for London's Growth, pp12-13]
— The London East sub-region (including the City
of London) is forecast in the London Plan to grow from a population
of 1,991,000 in 2001 to 2,262,000 in 2016, and with employment
growing from 1,087,000 to 1,336,000.
— Beyond the City and the Isle of Dogs, the subregion
of East London could accommodate a further 56,000 jobs. This reflects
the Mayor's priority to see development in the east. Much of that
growth, up to 30,000 jobs, could be in Stratford which could develop
as a new European business quarter on the Channel Tunnel Rail
Link (CTRL). [ London Plan, para 5.10]
HOUSING CAPACITY
IN ELL BOROUGHS
The total capacity estimate for London for the period 2007-08
to 2016-17 is 315,327 new dwellings. The period 2007-08 to 2011-12
is forecast to see nearly 60% of new dwellings built in this period.
The east sub region comprises the largest contribution to overall
capacity with 46% (145,899 homes). In addition, 73,000 more dwellings
are forecast to be built in London in the period 2004-05 to 2006-07.
A breakdown for ELL boroughs is shown below, from the London Housing
Capacity Study, July 2005. The East London Line Group has added
a column below which shows an estimate of population growth in
ELL Boroughs, based on 2Ö persons per dwelling:
ELL Phase 1 Boroughs |
Total housing capacity
2007-08 to 2016-17
| Proposed annual
capacity target
| ELLG estimate of
population growth
2005-06 to 2011-12
|
Hackney | 9,952
| 995 | 17,413 |
| Corporation of London | 1,720
| 170 | 2,795 |
| Tower Hamlets | 31,160 |
3,115 | 54,513 |
| Southwark | 16,279 | 1,625
| 28,438 |
| Lewisham | 10,830 | 1,080
| 18,900 |
| Bromley | 5,235 | 520
| 9,100 |
| Croydon | 11,222 | 1,120
| 19,600 |
| | |
(150,938) |
| ELL Phase 2 Boroughs | |
| |
| Islington | 11,246 | 1,125
| 19,688 |
| Lambeth | 11,383 | 1,135
| 19,863 |
| Wandsworth | 7,676 | 765
| 13,388 |
| | |
(7 years,
21/2 people/
dwelling) |
| |
| |
The additional two-way hourly capacity of TfL's ELL phase
1 in 2012 is 3,760 passengers. Based on the estimates above, it
is plausible to expect strong localised growth originating from
the ELL boroughs, that could take up most or all of this capacity
by 2012. This is in addition to the ELL's attractiveness for improved
north-south communications, which would also be relevant in general
to London's expanded population and economic base.
LOCALISED GROWTH
The catchments closest to the ELL stations will have strong
impact on local demand. The following main locations for development
are identified in the London Plan in proximity to the ELL route:
Adjacent to the ELL route
Dalston
| "major centre"—increase shopping, housing, economic activity
|
Bishopsgate/South Shoreditch |
35 hectares | 16,000 jobs | 800 homes
|
| Whitechapel/Aldgate | 31 hectares
| 14,000 jobs | 700 homes |
| Deptford Creek/Greenwich Riverside | 72 hectares
| 5,500 jobs | 1,000 homes |
| Croydon town centre is already recognised as London's largest "Metropolitan" centre and one of the capital's two strategic office centres outside central London. It is also recognised as an Opportunity Area:
| | | |
| Croydon town centre | 78 hectares
| 5,500 jobs | 2,000 homes |
| Peckham, Brixton and Clapham Junction are defined as `major centres' on the ELL phase 2 extension
| | | |
Near to the ELL route
Isle of Dogs
| 100 hectares | 100,000 jobs
| 3,500 homes |
| Stratford | 124 hectares |
30,000 jobs | 4,500 homes |
| Lower Lea Valley | 250 hectares
| 8,500 jobs | 6,000 homes |
| Greenwich Peninsula | 104 hectares
| 15,000 jobs | 7,500 homes |
| |
| |
CURRENT USE
OF INNER
LONDON RAIL
The proportion of journeys made on inner London's Underground,
metro, light rail and tram is highlighted by the recent Learning
& Skills Council analysis of future population and needs in
the London Borough of Tower Hamlets.[13]
This highlights the high reliance on rail-based services for travel,
with 37.3% of all travel to work in Tower Hamlets being on this
mode. Southern Hackney does not yet have its metro, and the East
London Line extension will provide that, with stations at Shoreditch
High Street, Hoxton, Haggerston and Dalston. Strong demand is
expected from these stations, and others in inner East and South
East London, in line with Tower Hamlets' experience. Further policy
developments in London which favour use of public transport, between
2005 and 2012, would increase demand for rail capacity.
8
London Olympic Games bid documents, Volume 3 Theme 14 Transport. Back
9
LUL "A" stock 4-car units have a capacity of 712 passengers
(from technical data on TfL website, 3 August 2005). Back
10
Depending on the number of passengers alighting at intermediate
stops and interchanges, more passengers than this would actually
be accommodated in an hour. Back
11
East London Line Project, Rolling Stock Prequalification Briefing
Document, June 2005. The specification for the new National Rail
trains has been set by TfL as a minimum of 750 passengers in each
4-car unit. Back
12
Until a number of platforms are reconstructed, overall train lengths
are limited on the ELL tunnel section to about 83 metres, equivalent
to 4-car trains. Back
13
see link to: www.lsc.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres and LSC DraftTowerHamletsStARBoroughProfilev01. Back
|
