APPENDIX 17
Memorandum submitted by Road Block
I would like to submit evidence to the committee
on behalf of Road Block, a national alliance of community groups
opposing road building.
I would like to restrict myself to giving evidence
on the cost escalation of road projects in the Highways Agency
Targeted Programme of Improvements (TPI). Road Block has calculated
that TPI schemes are averaging 67% cost escalation.
I am using data supplied by the Department of
Transport in response to a Parliamentary Question by Tom Brake
MP on 19 December 2005. This list was placed in the Libraries
and is enclosed. (see annex)
Road Block has taken the TPI costs of roads
when first approved, and the most recent cost estimate, and we
have placed them in the enclosed table: TPI Schemes Dec05.
The cost increases were then calculated in terms
of monetary increase, and also the percentage increase. The schemes
have been placed in order of schemes with the largest cost increases
coming first.
The list has been divided between schemes approved
before and after the 2003 Treasury Green Book guidance where the
costs of schemes have made allowance for inflation up to scheme
completion, for non-recoverable VAT and for "optimism bias".
For schemes before the April 2003 guidance,
the average cost escalation is 67%.
After the 2003 guidance, there seems to be have
been little or no re-evaluation of the costs of TPI roads.
Road Block believes that costs of some of the
post April 2003 TPI schemes could be much higher than the information
supplied to Tom Brake MP.
For instance local residents against the A14
Ellington to Fen Ditton Improvement report that in the Highways
Agency Stage 2 Scheme Assessment Report the cost is reported to
be £543 million, not the £490 million given in the answer
on 19 December 2005. This scheme is extremely controversial and
is subject to a Judicial Review due to resident's complaints of
lack of consultation.
Road Block believes that often the appraisal
for road schemes is still not satisfactory—the benefits
of a road are often over emphasised, whilst the disbenefits are
underplayed, to gain approval. Only later, once approval has been
given, do the true costs emerge. The same situation is occurring
with government funded local authority road schemes.
Road Block believes that it is essential that
cost estimates are updated regularly for TPI schemes, particularly
those approved since April 2003. "Optimism bias" of
between 5% and 45% (as outlined in the Green Book guidance) is
clearly not enough, given the cost escalation of schemes prior
to April 2003 of an average of 67%.
There is a need for more robust and independent
appraisal of schemes coming forward for approval into the TPI.
9 January 2006
Annex
Tables (1) Targeted Programme of Improvement
schemes and (2) local highway authority major road schemes which
are currently approved for funding through the Local Transport
Programme. Schemes within the Targeted Programme of Improvements
are subject to regular review.
The figures provided in table 1 are the latest
agreed budget costs and may be subject to change as schemes progress.
The latest estimated costs of local highway
authority schemes in table 2 represent the Department's most recent
information. Provisionally approved schemes with costs in excess
of the original approval are subject to detailed scrutiny and
appraisal processes before being considered for full approval.
Table 3 provides a list of the new major road
schemes that local authorities have provided in July 2005 for
funding through the Local Transport Plan programme. Some of these
schemes were originally submitted in previous years. No decisions
have yet been taken on these schemes and will be the subject of
advice from the region on their timing and priority.
(1) HIGHWAYS AGENCY TARGETED PROGRAMME
OF IMPROVEMENT SCHEMES
Scheme |
Date of TPI Entry | TPI Entry
cost(£m)
| Latest agreed
budget cost (£m) |
A1(M) Ferrybridge—Hook Moor (DBFO)
| Original TPI Scheme (July 1998) | 160
| 160 |
| A2 Bean—Cobham Phase 2 Tollgate—Cobham
| Original TPI Scheme (July 1998) | 35
| 101 |
| A2/A282 Dartford Improvement | Original TPI Scheme (July 1998)
| 38 | 72 |
| A14 Rookery Crossroads GSJ | Original TPI Scheme (July 1998)
| 5 | 10 |
| A249 Iwade—Queenborough Improvement |
Original TPI Scheme (July 1998) | 79
| 81 |
| A303 Stonehenge | Original TPI Scheme (July 1998)
| 125 | Under review.
Latest estimate is 470
|
| A421 Great Barford Bypass | Original TPI Scheme (July 1998)
| 25 | 58 |
| A500 City Road & Stoke Junction | Original TPI Scheme (July 1998)
| 24 | 55 |
| M25 J12-15 Widening | Original TPI Scheme (July 1998)
| 94 | 120 |
| M60 J5-8 Widening | Original TPI Scheme (July 1998)
| 82 | 116 |
| All Attleborough Bypass | March 2000
| 14 | 29 |
| All Fiveways—Thetford Improvement |
March 2000 | 30 | 60
|
| A47 Thorney Bypass | March 2000
| 9 | 27 |
| M6 Carlisle to Guardsmill extension | March 2000
| 46 | 175 |
| A63 Melton Grade Separated Junction | October 2000
| 11 | 22 |
| A14 Haughley New St—Stowmarket Improvement
| March 2001 | 10 | 32
|
| A3 Hindhead Improvement | March 2001
| 107 | 239 |
| A38 Dobwalls Bypass , | March 2001
| 17 | 36 |
| A595 Parton—Lillyhall Improvement |
March 2001 | 18 | 30
|
| Al Peterborough—Blyth Grade Separated Junctions
| March 2001 | 31 | 83
|
| M62 Junction 6 Improvement | March 2001
| 24 | 38 |
| A46 Newark—Widmerpool Improvement |
March 2001 | 82 | 220
|
| A30 Bodmin Indian Queens | March 2001
| 49 | 93 |
| A483 Pant- Llanymynech Bypass | August 2001
| 17 | 40 |
| A5117/A550 Deeside Park Junctions Improvement
| February 2002 | 22 | 43
|
| A419 Blunsdon | April 2002 |
29 | 65 |
| A66 Temple Sowerby & Improvement at Winderwath
| April 2002 | 19 | 39
|
| Al Dishforth to Leeming | June 2002
| 125 | Combined cost = 325 |
| Al Leeming to Barton | June 2002
| 100 | |
| Al Bramham—Wetherby (Including Wetherby Bypass)
| June 2002 | 38 | 51
|
| A64 Rillington Bypass | July 2002
| 8 | 12 |
| M40/A404 Handy Cross Junction Improvement |
August 2002 | 10 | 14
|
| A47 Blofield to North Burlingham Dualling |
August 2002 | 10 | 15
|
| A66 Greta Bridge to Stephen Bank Improvement
| August 2002 | 6 | 9
|
| A66 Carkin Moor to Scotch Corner Improvement
| August 2002 | 7 | 11
|
| A428 Caxton Common to Hardwick Improvement |
August 2002 | 22 | 55
|
| A30/A382 Merrymeet Junction | October 2002
| 7 | 12 |
| 6 Long Newton Junction | October 2002
| 6 | 8 |
| A69 Haydon Bridge Bypass | December 2002
| 14 | 24 |
| A419 Commonhead Junction | December 2002
| 12 | 16 |
| M5 Junctions 19—20 Southbound Climbing LaneDecember 2002
| 9 | 12 |
| M5 Junctions 19—20 Northbound Climbing LaneDecember 2002
| 6 | 16 |
| M1 J19 Improvement | February 2003
| 100 | 123 |
| A14 Ellington—Fen Ditton Improvement |
April 2003 | 490 | 490
|
| A57/A628 Mottram—Tintwistle Bypass |
April 2003 | 90 | 103
|
| A45/A46 Tollbar End Improvement | April 2003
| 57 | 57 |
| M1 Junction 6a to 10 Widening | July2003
| 241 | 289 |
| M1 Junction 10 to 13 Widening | July 2003
| 382 | 382 |
| Al Morpeth to Felton Dualling | July 2003
| 84 | 84 |
| Al Adderstone to Belford Dualling | July 2003
| 14 | 14 |
| A1/A19/A1068 Seaton Burn Junction | July 2003
| 30 | 29 |
| A19/A184 Testos Junction Improvement | July 2003
| 21 | 21 |
| A505 Dunstable Northern Bypass (A5 to | July 2003
| 48 | 48 |
| A421 Bedford to M1 Junction 13 | July 2003
| 171 | 171 |
| A21 Tonbridge to Pembury | July 2003
| 65 | 65 |
| M40 Junction 15 (Longbridge) | July 2003
| 57 | 57 |
| A590 High & Low Newton Bypass | October 2003
| 22 | 22 |
| M20 Junction 10A | November 2003
| 46 | 46 |
| A30 Carland Cross to Chiverton Cross | November 2003
| 125 | 125 |
| A30 Temple to Higher Carblake Improvement |
November 2003 | 41 | 41
|
| A27 Southerham to Beddingham Improvement |
March 2004 | 19 | 19
|
| M1 J21-30 | April2004 | 1,915
| 1,915 |
| M25 J 1 b-3 Widening | April 2004
| 66 | 66 |
| M25 J5-7 Widening | April 2004
| 214 | 214 |
| M25 J16-23 | April 2004 |
496 | 496 |
| M25 J23-27 Widening | April 2004
| 419 | 419 |
| M25 J27-30 Widening | April 2004
| 402 | 402 |
| A21 Kippings Cross to Lamberhurst Bypass |
May 2004 | 68 | 68
|
| A23 Handcross to Warninglid Widening | May 2004
| 41 | 41 |
| A453 Widening (M1 J24 to A52 Nottingham) |
May 2004 | 90 | 90
|
| M25 Junction 28/Al2 Brook Street Interchange
| March 2005 | 8 | 8
|
| M27 Jl l to J12 Climbing Lanes | March 2005
| 27 | 27 |
| M27J3 to J4 Widening | March 2005
| 52 | 52 |
| M1 J30 to J31 Widening | March 2005
| 135 | 135 |
| Ml J31 to J32 Widening | March 2005
| 20 | 20 |
| M1 J32 to J34S Widening | March 2005
| 139 | 139 |
| M1 J34N to J37 Widening | March 2005
| 246 | 246 |
| Ml J37 to J39 Widening | March 2005
| 224 | 224 |
| Ml J39 to J42 Widening | March 2005
| 202 | 202 |
| M1 J31 to J32 Northbound Collector/DistributorMarch 2005
| 29 | 29 |
| M62 J25 to J27 Widening | March 2005
| 215 | 215 |
| M62 J27 to J28 Widening | March 2005
| 83 | 83 |
| |
| |
NOTE:
The final column of the table show the latest agreed budget
costs represent the approved full outturn costs to deliver the
schemes and have been built up as follows:
— base estimate of scheme cost, at 2001 prices time,
including non recoverable VAT and an allowance for risk assessment;
— plus allowance for "optimism" bias which
was introduced in April 2003 following the new Treasury Green
Book on investment appraisal and is between 5% and 45% depending
on the quality of the risk assessment;
— plus inflation at 2.5% pa to the projected start
date. The projected start date, and by implication these costs,
are dependent upon completion of statutory procedures and availability
of funds.
Since April 2003, the costs of schemes submitted for TPI
entry approval have been reported on the above basis. That is,
they make allowance for inflation up to scheme completion, for
non-recoverable VAT and for "optimism bias" in line
with revised Treasury guidance which was issued in April 2003.
Before then, only net scheme costs, exclusive of VAT and projected
inflation, were reported at TPI Entry and the two sets of figures
are not directly comparable.
(2) LOCAL TRANSPORT PLAN MAJOR ROAD SCHEMES
(OVER £5 MILLION)
Scheme | Date Fully Approved
(FA) or
Provisionally
Accepted (PA)
| (i) gross cost of
scheme when first
submitted for
approval
| (ii) most recent
estimate or final
gross cost of
the scheme
|
A228 Ropers Lane Phase 1 | PA-Dec 2001
& FA-May 2003
| £15.20m | £18.956m
|
| East Kent Access Phase 1 | PA-Dec 2000
& FA-July 2005
| £12.954m | £23.248m
|
| A228 Leybourne & West Malling Corridor Improvement
| PA-Dec 2002
& FA-March 2005 | £27.94m
| £28.47m |
| Kiln Lane Link, Epsom | PA-December 2001
| £10.60m | £18.684m
|
| A24 Ashington to Southwater | PA-December 2002
| £18.95m | £26.220m
|
| A24 Horsham to Capel Improvement | PA-December 2002
| £38.56m | £56.720m
|
| A4146 Stoke Hammond/Linslade Western Bypass
| PA-December 2000
& FA-December2004
| £44.66m | £52.842m
|
| Bletchley Link | Note-This scheme is no longer a major road
scheme and the promoters have now submitted a new Major Scheme Business Case
|
| M4 J11 (Green Park Improvements) and Mereoak Roundabout
| PA-December 2001 | £43.67m
| Option 1
£64.64m
or
Option 2
£ 69.61m
|
| Sittingbourne Northern Relief Road | PA-December 2004
| £43.5m | £43.5m |
| Bexhill Hastings Link Road | PA-December 2004
| £47.12m | £48.51m
|
| Cradley Heath Bypass | PA-December 2000
FA-June 2004
| £6.335m | £10.761m
|
| Brierley Hill Access Network | PA-December 2003
| £24.310m | £35.000m
|
| A38 Northfield Regeneration Bypass | PA-December 2000
FA-December 2004
| £12.000m | £19.380m
|
| Owen Street Relief Road | PA-December 2000
| £8.810m | £17.150m
|
| Selly Oak Relief Road | PA-December 2002
| £42.500m | £52.250m
|
| Barford Bypass | PA-December 2000
FA-December 2004
| £6.910m | £10.380m
|
| Rugby Western Bypass | PA-December 2000
| £20.280m | £26.818m
|
| Hodnet Bypass | PA-December 1999
| £12.515m | £14.902m
|
| Hanley Bentilee Link | PA-December 2000
| £15.415m | £21.562m
|
| Tunstall Northern Bypass | PA-December 2003
| £6.730m | £7.004m
|
| Leeds Inner Ring Road Stage 7 | FA-December 2000
| £35.576m | £50.538m
|
| Hanley Bentilee Link | PA-December 2000
| £15.415m | £21.562m
|
| Tunstall Northern Bypass | PA-December 2003
| £6.730m | £ 7.004m
|
| Rugeley Eastern Bypass | PA-December 2000
FA-February 2004
| £17.454m | £22.844m
|
| East Leeds Link Road | FA-December 2000
| £19.380m | £31.881m
|
| Sheffield Inner Relief Road Stages II &III
| PA-December 2000
FA-July 2004 | £30.000m
| £62.571m |
| Glasshoughton Coalfields Link Road | PA-December 2000
| £6.815m | £11.695m
|
| A63 West Bawtry Road Improvements | PA-December 2000
| £5.028m | £5.028m
|
| Hemsworth to Al Link Road | PA-December 2000
| £11.261m | £22.776m
|
| A628 Cudworth & West Green Bypass | PA-December 2001
| £17.198m | £17.198m
|
| 57(T) M1 Junction 31 to Todwick Crossroads |
PA-December 2001 | £6.264m
| £11.900m |
| A165 Reighton Bypass | PA-December 2002
| £6.550m | £6.564m
|
| A39 Camelford Bypass | PA-December 2000
| £6.8m | £14.4m |
| A391 St Austell to Bodmin | PA-July 2003
| £30.35m | £57m |
| Barnstaple Western Bypass | PA-December 2000
FA-December 2004
| £32.5m | £43.078m
|
| A354 Weymouth Relief Road | PA-December2003
| £54.567m | £54.567m
|
| Poole Bridge Regeneration Initiative | PA-December 2001
| £14.414m | £46,880m
|
| Brunel Link and Harnham Relief Road | PA-December 2000
| £13.0m | £21.803m
|
| A57 Cadishead Way (Brinell Drive-City Boundary)
| PA-December 2002
FA-2003 | £19.905m
| £19.405m |
| The Glossup Spur, Tameside | PA-December 2000
| £7.18m | £8.08l m
|
| Ashton Northern Bypass Stage 2, Tameside |
PA-December 2002 | £7.74m |
£8.29m |
| Wigan Inner Relief Route | PA-December 2002
| £19.5m | £19.5m |
| A34 Alderley Edge Bypass, Cheshire | PA-December 2002
| £37.9m | £40m |
| Carlisle Northern Development Route | PA-December 2000
FA-October 2004
| £24.31m (traditional
funding) |
£78.812m
(PFI Credits) |
| A58 Blackbrook Diversion, St Helens | PA-December 2002
| £7.899m | £8.45m
|
| Hall Lane Area Improvements, Liverpool |
PA-December 2000 | £9.0m |
£12.2m |
| Edge Lane West, Liverpool | PA-December 2004
| £15.85m | £15.85m
|
| Bedford Western Bypass | PA-December 1999
| £20m | £24.812m |
| Ridgmont Bypass/Woburn Link | PA-December 1999
| £7.745m | £16.116m
|
| A505 Baldock Bypass | PA-December 1999
| £33.821m | £47.408m
|
| Stowmarket Relief Road | PA-December1999
| £13.2m | £17.695m
|
| South Lowestoft Relief Road and Associated Measures
| PA-December 2000
FA-December 2004 |
£25.4m | £30.621 m |
| Al 27/A1159 Priory Crescent, Southend on Sea
| FA-December 2000 | £3.5m
| £27.533m |
| A1198 Papworth Everard Bypass | PA-December 2001
FA-October 2005
| £5.4m | £8.740m |
| East Luton Corridor South | PA-December 2001
| Now a subject of a Community
Infrastructure Fund application
|
| Sunderland Southern Radial Route | FA-September 2004
| £17.026m | £28.720m
|
| Darlington Eastern Transport Corridor | PA-December 2000
| £5.700m | £12.100m
|
| A688 Wheatley Hill-Bowburn Link, Durham |
PA-December 2000 | £6.624m
| £9.180m |
| Pegswood Bypass, Northumberland | PA-December 2001
& FA-October 2005
| £8.140m | £9.375m
|
| North Middlesbrough Accessibility Improvements
| PA-December 2002 | £12.220m
| £12.220m |
| Sunderland Central Route | PA-December 2002
| £16.540m | £16.540m
|
| A1056 Northern Gateway, North Tyneside |
PA-December 2003 | £9.916m
| £14.327m |
| A6096 Ilkeston-Awsworth Link, Derbyshire |
PA-December 2001 | £8.606m
| £12.270m |
| Markham Employment Growth Zone, Derbyshire |
PA-December 2001 | £21.5m |
£23.5m |
| A158/C541 Lincolnshire Coastal Access Improvement (including Phase 1-Partney Bypass
| Phase 1-PA
December 2000
FA-2004
Phase 2&3-PA-December 2000
| £15.515m (for all
3 phases) |
Phase 1-£7.791m
Phase 2- £14.15m
Phase 3-£9.38m
|
| A1073 Spalding to Eye Improvement, Lincolnshire
| PA-December 2000 | £24.835m
| £70.4m |
| A43 Corby Link Road | PA-December 2002
| £12.717m | £15.2m
|
| A509 Isham Bypass, Northamptonshire | PA-December 2003
| £13.9m | £14.6m |
A612 Gedling Integrated Transport Scheme,
Nottinghamshire
| PA-December 2002 | £7.067m
| £11.664m |
| Oakham Bypass | PA-December 2001
| £7.650m | £11.666m
|
| |
| |
NOTE:(1) Schemes not yet approved
are subject to the completion of the relevant statutory processes
and will require final approval by the Department.
(2) Schemes that have been funded through the Local Transport
Plan programme and have been completed between 1999-2005 are not
included in the list.
(3) Provisionally Approved schemes with costs in excess of
the original approval are subject to detailed scrutiny and appraisal
processes before being considered for Full Approval.
(3) LTP 2005—NEW MAJOR ROAD SCHEMES (OVER
£5 MILLION) SUBMITTED IN JULY 2005
Scheme | (i) gross cost of
scheme when first
submitted for approval
| (ii) most recent
estimate or final gross
cost of the scheme
|
A41 Expressway/A4031 All Saints Way Junction Improvement
| £15.373m (2004) | £19.837m (2005)
|
| Rotherwas Access Road, Herefordshire | £9.824m (2003)
| £10.280 (2005) |
| A509 Isham to Wellingborough Improvement, Northamptonshire
| £13.678m (2004) | £13.575m (2005)
|
| A47 Earl Shilton Bypass | £14.106 (2003)
| £15.242m (2005) |
| Beverley Integrated Transport Plan | £41.049m (2004)
| £28.089m (2005) |
| A140 Long Stratton Bypass, Norfolk | £26.556m
| New submission |
| Pleasley Bypass Extension, Nottinghamshire |
£16.966m | New submission |
| A13/A130 Thames Gateway (Sadlers Farm Junction),Essex
| £70.97m | New submission
|
| Waverley Link Road, Rotherham | £8.130m
| New submission |
| Finningley and Rossington Regeneration Route Scheme, Doncaster
| £158.15m | New submission
|
| Sunderland Strategic Transport Corridor |
£69.445m | New submission |
| Brownhills Transport Package | £20.858m
| New submission |
| A4123/A461-Burnt Tree Island Improvement |
£10.303m | New submission |
| Taunton Third Way & Northern Inner Distributor Road
| £27.20m | New submission
|
| Heysham to M6 Link Road, Lancashire | £87.7m
| New submission |
| A684 Bedale—Aiskew—Leeming Bar Bypass, North Yorkshire
| £25.667m | New submission
|
| East Durham Link Road | £9.746m (2005)
| New submission |
| |
|
| 
