Examination of Witnesses (Questions 1440
- 1459)
1440. Sir Peter Soulsby: I think the
Committee gets the point and in fact members know both ends very
well indeed. Some of us are regular patrons of shops at both ends.
(Mr Spencer) The retail units at Liverpool
Street Station are there because people want to buy what they
sell. If they did not want to buy what they sell they would not
be there. Why people buy scented candles on the way to work in
the morning is only idle speculation.
1441. Mr Elvin: Mr Spencer, I was only
trying to make you smile.
1442. Sir Peter Soulsby: You have succeeded
in making us all smile.
1443. Mr Elvin: The only point, and the
Committee has got the point, is that there are shopping attractions
very close to Moorgate as well.
(Mr Spencer) There clearly are shops near Moorgate
but they are different types of shops.
1444. Marks & Spencer, Boots, Dixons and
the like.
(Mr Spencer) There is a huge Marks & Spencer
just up the road.
1445. Sir Peter Soulsby: Mr Spencer,
I am absolutely sure you do not need to go into this. Members
of the Committee know both ends very well indeed.
1446. Mr Binley: I buy candles every
week.
1447. Mr Elvin: Increment 2, which was
your demand growth to 2016: I said I would not take that up because
it makes practically no difference. I think it adds 300 passengers
so we will not spend time on that.
(Mr Spencer) Well—
1448. I am sorry. I am not spending time on
it, Mr Spencer. I am not asking you questions on it.
(Mr Spencer) I will not give an answer to a
non-existent question.
1449. That is what evidence in chief is for.
Increment 3 is the Crossrail market share and there the difference
is between the Crossrail 13.3 per cent and your 20 per cent.
(Mr Spencer) Correct.
1450. And the basis of your approach is some
sort of spreadsheet analysis which I do not think we have seen.
Is that right?
(Mr Spencer) We have come to a view that we
feel that the Crossrail market share should be 20 per cent. That
is informed by a whole variety of pieces of information. That
assumption has to be judged on the basis of the related evidence
that is in my proof of evidence and exhibits and is supported
by a continuing effort on our part to understand what Crossrail's
estimate is of Liverpool Street. It is an assumption but it would
not be fair to say that we have plucked the number out of the
air.
1451. But it is based on data that no-one has
had an opportunity to verify?
(Mr Spencer) That is not correct.
1452. We have not seen your spreadsheets, have
we?
(Mr Spencer) We have clearly shared significant
amounts of information.
1453. It is a simple question: we have not been
provided with them.
(Mr Spencer) I am not sure that is correct.
I think the information we gave to you in October included some
analysis which did give spreadsheets which showed at that stage
a view that the market share would be 23 per cent and it was quite
a detailed spreadsheet. It was given to Mr Landells in our forecasting
note of that. I think it was 29 October we gave it to Crossrail.
Subsequently we have taken the view that as far as the evidence
we have put before the Select Committee is concerned, we would
adopt a market share of 20 per cent.
1454. I am not going to pursue that point any
further because we take a different view. Can I understand this?
One of the things that Railplan does is help to model market share,
does it not? That is a strategic issue which it is perfectly capable
of doing.
(Mr Spencer) At the strategic level it is perfectly
capable of doing it. What I think is clear is that there are detailed
aspects when dealing with a location such as the City of London
and Liverpool Street which means that you have to infill Railplan
with sufficient understanding to be confident that Railplan is
giving an appropriate answer. As an example, we talk about two
minutes' difference in walk times. That is taking you to the eastern
ticket hall. It is not taking you to Broadgate. It is not taking
you to Bishopsgate. It is not taking you to the Gherkin.
1455. We are talking about market share. We
have left the first point.
(Mr Spencer) I agree at the strategic level
it is sufficient. At detailed level I think it needs more information
than it currently has available to be able to give an accurate
prediction.
1456. If I simply put to you that we have tested
different destination distributions and we have looked at your
data, such as we have, and we come up with the figure that we
do, then all I can say to you is that we think you have exaggerated
the market share.
(Mr Spencer) I can only rely on the evidence
I have put before you. You clearly think I have exaggerated it.
I think it is a forecast that the Select Committee should be mindful
of and take seriously.
1457. Sir Peter Soulsby: I think we have
understood what assumptions have been made in order to reach the
picture that has been presented to us.
1458. Mr Elvin: And, Mr Spencer, you
understand that we have put such data as we have had from you
through Railplan, adjusted it to take account of the conditions
as they are to produce our market share, so it is not as if we
have disregarded what you have come up with.
(Mr Spencer) I can only repeat what I have
said previously. We have made significant progress but there is
still a fair way to go.
1459. Increment 4 only materialised this week;
is that right? You asked us to run pedroutes to test your increments
1, 2 and 3 that we have just talked about, but the first we knew
of increment 4 was when we received your evidence. Is it something
that is a later thought?
(Mr Spencer) No, not at all. Obviously, we
have had informal discussions with the staff at Cross London Rail
Links and their consultants, and we have certainly in the past
raised the point that we felt that the forecast for interchange
between National Rail and Crossrail did not reflect what Crossrail
would deliver as far as quality of accessibility for movements
into the heart of the West End was concerned.
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