Examination of Witnesses (Questions 8480
- 8499)
8480. 31 is Erith town centre?[78]
(Mr Donovan) Yes and that is sort
of complementing that because we are doing a lot of town centre
renewal as well and Erith is a good example of a riverside town
that used to be very much employment driven—the employment
areas used to come right up into the town centre. We did not think
that was sustainable in the long-term future so we allowed a little
bit of those to change to housing, which has had two major benefits.
It has meant that we have separated the housing and employment
out a little bit but we have also brought housing within the catchment
of the town centre and you will see right in the middle of that
picture to the north of the wharf, which has been refurbished,
that is actually a Morrison's food store, which was brought in.
It is kind of difficult to get the message across in a way, but
Erith at that time had had no significant private investment whatsoever
and we were able to bring in that, attract Morrison's in, and
that is a sustainable regeneration. Erith has a station there
already but the potential for a Crossrail-type link coming into
Erith would really give that an enormous boost.
8481. Slide 32, as a result of those points
you have just made why the need for Crossrail?[79]
(Mr Donovan) Number one, to address
the issue around poor accessibility. Bexley does not do well in
accessibility in comparison to most of the other East London boroughs.
Secondly, to help with the modal shift and away from the reliance
on the car, which whilst a characteristic of suburban London there
is certainly potential to change that. It picks up on national,
regional and local strategies by providing more public transport
but it is also a critical element of improving the image, and
it is one area in which there is very strong support from both
local residents and businesses for Crossrail. I cannot emphasise
enough what an exciting opportunity Crossrail was seen when it
was actually first put together and all the plans were coming
out, and the idea of it coming right the way down through the
regeneration of the north part of Bexley and picking up from the
Docklands, coming across and then down towards Ebbsfleet was seen
as a really good opportunity.
8482. Your last point was supported by local
residents and businesses and slides 33 and 34 are indicators of
that support?[80]
(Mr Donovan) That is right. We
have a Residents' Talkback Panel, which is a fixed panel where
we ask them questions on all sorts of things affecting not just
the council but Bexley in general and you will see from that that
99 per cent of the people attach priority to public transport,
and that of those Crossrail was identified as the highest priority
for 42 per cent of the people. You will also see that this picks
up the 94 per cent seeking to improve Bexley's rail network. So
there is an enormous commitment to the idea of public transport
in Bexley, and I am absolutely convinced that there would be real
modal shifts if we get more of it in place.
8483. 34 is business support.
(Mr Donovan) 34, we also regularly deal with
our businesses and you will see that that is a consultation that
we carried out with businesses in the Belvedere area which in
a sense, not surprisingly, have picked up, amongst a number of
other things, improvements to public transport as being one of
their key things. I would make one other point there, if I may,
and that is that business traditionally have said two things about
North Bexley: one is accessibility and the need to improve public
and—in fairness—road transport; and the other one
is image. I think that the reinforcing by solving the public transport
problem the ability to improve the image is there.
8484. We then turn to a different subject, which
is support from other local authorities.[81]
You are here on behalf of Bexley but of course what you are asking
for is an extension to Ebbsfleet, which would extend the line
through Dartford Borough and Kent County.
(Mr Donovan) Yes. So we have over
the next few slides, the first one is a letter of support from
Kent County. They indicate, as we show and blown up on slide 36,
that Kent and Medway are talking there as to the formal structure
plan authority. The formal position on Crossrail is that the two
authorities will press government to implement the extension of
Crossrail services to Ebbsfleet and Medway. It is noted that extension
of Crossrail services into the Kent Thames Gateway area would
provide a major stimulus to the attraction of business into Kent.
Again, the Kent issue of trying to make sure that within Kent
the western side of Kent benefits to some degree because they
are acknowledging that there is quite a lot of economic activity
around Canterbury and Ashford, which are on the east side of Kent.
So that was the support from Kent.
8485. If you could go on to Gravesham.[82]
(Mr Donovan) 37 and 38 were from
Gravesham, which is the borough immediately to the east of Dartford
and just to the east of Ebbsfleet Station, although the whole
Ebbsfleet development sits within Dartford and Gravesham, so it
too reaffirms its support for Crossrail, extending beyond Abbey
Wood to Kent Thameside as an essential part of the regeneration
of the area and provision of its transport infrastructure, and
then urges the route to do it. They also indicate that they are
seeking additional rail services through Kent Thameside to service
the high levels of development proposed, in particular the 20,000
jobs around Ebbsfleet, and they refer there to the constraint
on the highway network and the improvements that they would be
seeking to the North Kent Line.
8486. To be fair on Gravesham, their support
is for an extension to Kent Thameside but they say at page 37
that the Ebbsfleet option of Crossrail has always meant the possibility
of a terminus at Northfleet Station or running further east.
(Mr Donovan) Yes. Gravesham would like at least
the alternative option of a terminus going a little bit further
east into Gravesend.
8487. Dartford's position?
(Mr Donovan) Dartford, as set out on 39 and
40, there is a long letter set out on 39.[83]
The bit that is blown up on page 40 is actually from the middle
page of the three, and it says, "At its meeting on 23 September
2004 the Dartford Cabinet reiterated its support for Crossrail
coming to Ebbsfleet and highlighted the need for Ebbsfleet to
be included in the Hybrid Bill. In the event of phased delivery,
the council pointed out that the Ebbsfleet brand offered the best
prospects in terms of regeneration benefits."
8488. So those are the councils representing
the areas to the east of Bexley. If we then turn to slide 41,
the benefits of Crossrail, this is an extract from the Crossrail
Business Case Summary, September 2003, when the Ebbsfleet extension
was included in the proposals.[84]
(Mr Donovan) Yes.
8489. If you look at that figure, 6.3, which
identified areas of regeneration that benefit from Crossrail,
if you cut the line at point nine, which is Abbey Wood, what impact
does that have on the extent of the regeneration areas served
by Crossrail?
(Mr Donovan) The regeneration area, as you
can see, east of that is a fairly substantial part of the regeneration
of Thames Gateway. That plan there shows obviously the Lee Valley
as well, but of the Thames Gateway part the regeneration tends
to be larger in areas south of the river than north, as it happens,
as it gets further out, and the effect of stopping at point nine,
which is Abbey Wood, would be to take out quite a lot of the regeneration
priority areas which go back to the first few slides I showed
you.
8490. You have highlighted on the right hand
side, is that an extract from the Crossrail Business Case Summary?
(Mr Donovan) Yes.
8491. What does that show?
(Mr Donovan) It shows that Crossrail would
enable or attract between 56,000 to 110,000 jobs as a result of
the development activity and that that would mean 45,000 to 78,000
of these estimated jobs would be enabled in the Thames Gateway
itself. So we are talking there about the difference between the
overall impact of jobs from Crossrail and the impact on Thames
Gateway as a major regeneration priority.
8492. Page 42 is an extract from a Crossrail
Business Case Working Paper and it shows increases in population—that
is the catchment within 45 minutes of travel time—and average
time savings, and you have highlighted Belvedere and Swanscombe,
and what do they show?[85]
(Mr Donovan) Belvedere is in North
Bexley and Swanscombe is north of Ebbsfleet so it is in Dartford
just north of Ebbsfleet, and that is showing that they have the
largest potential increase in population within 45 minutes' travel
time from the effects of Crossrail and they also show the largest
potential travel time savings.
8493. Of course if Crossrail does not go to
Belvedere or on to Ebbsfleet—
(Mr Donovan) Those would be lost and that would
have, one would presume, a fairly significant impact on that original
business case.
8494. If we go to page 43, we can see there
the number of regeneration jobs created in the development areas
attributable to Crossrail.[86]
We are dealing here with regeneration areas. This is an unweighted
figure taken from the Crossrail business case working paper, working
paper 6.2, is that right?
(Mr Donovan) Yes.
8495. This was when Ebbsfleet was included.
In terms of job increases in regeneration areas, what does it
show?
(Mr Donovan) If you take this unweighted figure
then of 31,000 potential new jobs in regeneration areas, 21,000
of them, over 21,000 of them, would be in a combination of Belvedere,
Ebbsfleet and Swanscombe, which is in the part of the Crossrail
route that would not be there. By far the biggest increases in
employment in regeneration areas would not occur.
8496. So if one turns on to the weighted figure,
and this is Crossrail's analysis, what does it show for Belvedere,
Swanscombe and Ebbsfleet?[87]
(Mr Donovan) There is a difference
of pattern here. The weighting seems to be around applying a potential.
The argument I think goes, and I say "I think" because
this is clearly Crossrail logic, that in Swanscombe and Ebbsfleet,
because that is at the heart of an area where there is a very
large amount of housing going on, potentially they see that there
will be an even bigger figure on the weighted numbers of jobs
in Swanscombe and Ebbsfleet than on the unweighted. In Belvedere
it seems to be going the other way and suggesting that although
the unweighted figure would be around about 10,000, in Belvedere
that would drop. I think the argument there is around the potential
for Belvedere. I am a little concerned in the sense that does
not seem to be accepting that Belvedere itself would improve if
things like Crossrail came to it. Even allowing for the figures
as shown, even on that weighted figures, that is still showing
that 20,000, which is over a quarter of the weighted increase
in employment, would be lost in the regeneration area by not going
on to Ebbsfleet on Crossrail's own analysis.
8497. Mr Cameron: Before we turn on to
the next slide, I would like to look at the difference between
taking the line to Abbey Wood and taking the line to Ebbsfleet
on jobs in regeneration areas. What I am going to ask you to look
at is a letter that Bexley received from Mr Anderson of Crossrail
on 11 May, dated 11 May.
8498. Sir Peter Soulsby: This will be
A91.[88]
8499. Mr Cameron: Thank you, sir. Just
on the jobs point, if we can, can I just ask you to look at Mr
Anderson's letter and go to the last paragraph. You can see: "In
addition to the above benefits . . . ", these are proportionate
in addition to the benefits set out in the tables, "an additional
2,900 jobs and 3,400 homes will be facilitated in areas within
the Thames Gateway beyond Abbey Wood, as a result of commercial
and residential development that could be attracted to these areas
due to improved accessibility and the anticipation of the future
extension of Crossrail services to Ebbsfleet". We can find
out later what it meant by that last part of the sentence, the
anticipation. I would like to ask you about the 2,900 jobs. Crossrail
are now saying 2,900 jobs beyond Abbey Wood. How does that compare
to what they were saying in 2003 when the line was going to Ebbsfleet,
if we go back to your slide 44?[89]
(Mr Donovan) If we are looking
at the weighted figure they would there be suggesting that there
would be 19,250 jobs in Belvedere and Swanscombe/Ebbsfleet attributable
to Crossrail. Seemingly a much higher figure was being anticipated
in 2003 than now.
78 Committee Ref: A90, Existing Regeneration Initiatives
1-Erith Town Centre (BEXYLB-32005C-031). Back
79
Committee Ref: A90, Need for Crossrail (BEXYLB-32005C-032). Back
80
Committee Ref: A90, Need for Crossrail: Resident and Business
Support (BEXYLB-32005C-033 and -034). Back
81
Committee Ref: A90, Need for Crossrail: Support from Kent County
Council (BEXYLB-32005C-035 and -036). Back
82
Committee Ref: A90, Need for Crossrail: Support from Gravesham
Borough Council (BEXYLB-32005C-037 and -038). Back
83
Committee Ref: A90, Need for Crossrail: Support from Dartford
Borough Council (BEXYLB-32005C-039 and -040). Back
84
Committee Ref: A90, Benefits of Crossrail: Business Case Summary,
September 2003 (BEXYLB-32005C-041). Back
85
Committee Ref: A90, Crossrail Business Case Summary-Accessibility
Changes to Key Development Areas (Opportunity Areas) with Crossrail
(BEXYLB-32005C-042). Back
86
Committee Ref: A90, Crossrail Business Case Working Paper-Increase
in Employment (Unweighted) (BEXYLB-32005C-043). Back
87
Committee Ref: A90, Crossrail Business Case Working Paper-Increase
in Employment (Weighted) (BEXYLB-32005C-044). Back
88
Committee Ref: A91, CLRL to London Borough of LB Bexley, 11 May
2006 (SCN20060516-001). Back
89
Committee Ref: A90, Crossrail Business Case Working Paper-Increase
in Employment (Weighted) (BEXYLB-32005C-044). Back
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