Examination of Witnesses (Questions 12560
- 12579)
12560. So any problems that are identified as
a result of applying any of these percentages would occur whether
or not Crossrail comes forward.
(Mr Reed) I think the point is we were not
using the percentages as a definition of what is occurring in
2016 without Crossrail. What we wanted to identify was there is
growth and in 2016 with or without Crossrail for there to be no
indicated growth we felt that was unreasonable because there is
growth on the network anyway.
12561. So if we turn to A137 and slide 14 where
you set out your findings in relation to station capacity.[78]
As I understand it, what you have done there is to assume that
the capacity of the station is the 2016 CLRL forecast plus 20
per cent, yes?
(Mr Reed) Without any other information
we have taken that as a proxy but, as we said in evidence-in-chief,
we would be happy to receive what Crossrail has used as a design
standard.
12562. I will come back to that later, if I
may. If we look at the bottom row, 2006 at 3.1 per cent per annum
for three years. That is the growth rate from the London average
that we have seen before which is unrelated to whether or not
Crossrail comes forward. As I understand it, you have identified
that on your assumption Crossrail would fail to meet existing
capacity at 2012, but the fact is what you are demonstrating is
that without Crossrail, on the basis of your assumption, the station
would not meet capacity at 2012.
(Mr Reed) No. I think what we were using this
information to demonstrate was that without any other information
the design of the Crossrail station could be at or over capacity
already once it is opened under existing growth scenarios. We
know the existing station already has problems but we were trying
to demonstrate that in planning for the future the Crossrail station
already could be, under the assumptions we had made or the information
we had, already at capacity as soon as it is opened.
12563. So far as your assumption about capacity
is concerned, the Crossrail forecast plus 20 per cent, what work
have you done to determine that assumption is correct?
(Mr Reed) Recently we met with Crossrail and
the Royal Borough and as part of those discussions the figure
of 20 per cent was discussed as what is normally used as a design
uplift. We have used that as our assumption. Clearly without knowing
what the exact figures are we have had to make that assumption.
12564. So you have not been able to identify
whether it is the gates that could cause a constraint in the future
or whether it is the platform sizes or the stairwells?
(Mr Reed) I think within the design statements
the stairwells and entrance areas on to the platforms were identified,
but I am not an expert in that area so we would have to be guided
by Crossrail and others as to where the actual point on the station
at capacity would be the pinch point.
12565. So your assumption is just that, an assumption
without any work to support whether or not that is a correct assumption?
(Mr Reed) That is correct but, again, I would
say what we are trying to find out from the Promoters is are those
assumptions correct and within the short timescales of receiving
the information we had to make assumptions as to what could be
the growth as we continue discussions with Crossrail to find out
exactly what the design of the station is.
12566. Let us deal with the sparks effect, slide
number 11 of A137.[79]
You give an example with Thameslink opening and a growth of eight
to ten per cent per annum as a result of the immediate abstraction
of passengers from parallel routes with inferior services. Where
is the parallel route with an inferior service here?
(Mr Reed) We have indicated that
the Reading to Waterloo service has very long journey times on
that and that was provided at slide 25.[80]
In that slide we have tried to indicate that during the time of
the last survey, which was in 2001, bullet point two, the journey
time of the fastest commuter service on the Reading to Waterloo
service had increased by seven minutes. In actual fact, the journey
times from those outer areas, and as we show on the map the hinterlands
around them could abut the Royal Borough, have continued to decrease
over time. What we have found is that it is actually faster for
people to go from Wokingham to London Paddington via Reading for
comparable times.
12567. In terms of the comparable times between
Wokingham, Bracknell and Martins Heron at present and a journey
time from Maidenhead at present, which is the quickest?
(Mr Reed) Depending on what service you use,
Maidenhead into Paddington.
12568. So to the extent that Maidenhead is already
providing a quicker service then people will already be driving
to Maidenhead to take advantage of that service, will they not?
(Mr Reed) Not necessarily, because what you
are indicating is that it is just the journey time basis but clearly
the benefit Crossrail brings is not the need to interchange at
Paddington. If you add on the journey times from Maidenhead and
the interchanging penalties at Paddington you will probably get
terrible times, but the difference that Crossrail will bring is
that you can go to Maidenhead and direct into the City, therefore
the overall journey time comes down. That is our belief.
12569. But I thought you said that the quickest
journey from the Wokingham, Bracknell and Martin Herons direction
is via Reading and into Paddington already.
(Mr Reed) If people choose to do that but then
you have got the interchanging penalty as well.
12570. Back to slide 11 of A137 for the next
point on the Thameslink which you rely on: incremental growth
and increasing understanding of journey opportunities.[81]
The Great Western Corridor has been in existence in terms of providing
journey opportunities for a considerable period of time, Mr Reed.
(Mr Reed) Correct.
12571. What greater understanding would there
be to be derived in the future with Crossrail?
(Mr Reed) I think in terms of that slide it
is our understanding that obviously when Thameslink opened that
provided through routes under London and our understanding from
discussions with managers in that area at that time was over time
people became more aware and had a better understanding of the
journey opportunities. I think it is the only other comparable
service in respect of Crossrail. As you said yourself, at the
moment you have to go into Paddington and change but under Crossrail
you will not need to change if you have got destinations within
the City and West End. That is the information that Crossrail
provided to us as a benefit in time for those passengers. What
will happen over time is that people will become more aware of
those journey patterns. They will not necessarily go as soon as
Crossrail opens but over time people will become more aware of
those opportunities. I have no doubt that you will see estate
agents' fliers saying Maidenhead is a good place to live because
you can get direct access into London in the same way that schools
in Maidenhead are very good and that is another reason for coming
to Maidenhead. People will become more aware of it. Also, as I
am sure you will appreciate, when Crossrail opens it will open
with a fanfare, there will be a lot of publicity, a lot of benefits
shown why Crossrail was built and people will pick up on that
and say, "There is another journey opportunity". Word
goes around in offices. People will work that out for themselves
over time. We will not necessarily see it immediately but we think
it will happen over time as people become more aware of the services.
12572. Let us move on to changes in journey
patterns. The train to London already provides a quicker means
into London than the private car.
(Mr Reed) Yes, certainly.
12573. A much quicker journey into London than
the private car.
(Mr Reed) Yes.
12574. You have explained in your evidence that
Crossrail will provide a comparable service into London.
(Mr Reed) No, Mr Anderson's evidence this morning
indicated that Crossrail would provide a comparable service into
Paddington and London compared to the base now, and we have repeated
that in evidence today.
12575. Given that the service will remain comparable
to the current level of service, if that is the intention, it
is unlikely that Crossrail will be attractive to those currently
driving to work from the Maidenhead area, because they are already
using the train.
(Mr Reed) I am not quite sure what point you
are trying to get at here, counsel. We have not, in our evidence,
indicated that we would be trying to draw people off the M4 or
other routes who drive into Maidenhead. What we are saying is
that people will see Crossrail as offering them benefits locally
in access to London Paddington and services to stations within
London, and therefore they will chose to drive to Maidenhead,
but I do not think we have contended that people will come off
the motorway.
12576. So far as rail heading is concerned,
you have analysed the results of your survey. As I understand
it, there are two branch lines in the vicinity of Maidenhead:
there is a branch line to Henley and a branch line to Marlow.
Is that right?
(Mr Reed) Yes, there is a branch line from
Henley that runs into Twyford, which is the next station west
of Maidenhead, and there is the Marlow and Bourne End branch that
goes into Maidenhead.
12577. In your analysis of rail heading, you
have not identified any rail heading from the Henley branch. Is
that right?
(Mr Reed) No, we have not.
12578. So far as the Marlow branch is concerned,
you explained on slide 24 of A137 that with Crossrail there is
no through service proposed on that branch.[82]
(Mr Reed) As far as I understand,
sir, there is no through service from the Bourne End branch directly
into London Paddington, but there would need to be a change at
Maidenhead.
12579. Let me bring up D 030 of the Promoter's
evidence and just deal with that point briefly, if I may: the
Marlow branch timetable summary.[83]
Here we have the times of various trains on the Marlow branch
and we have got the current timetable in table 1, which shows
two London services, 7.13 and 7.53. Underneath that we have table
2, the Crossrail working timetable, which has one through London
service. Do you see that?
(Mr Reed) Is that the 7.18?
78 Committee Ref: A137, Forecasting (WINSRB-14605C-014). Back
79
Committee Ref: A137, Forecasting (WINSRB-14605C-011). Back
80
Committee Ref: A137, Rail Heading (WINSRB-14605C-025). Back
81
Committee Ref: A137, Forecasting (WINSRB-14605C-011). Back
82
Committee Ref: A137, Rail Heading (WINSRB-14605C-024). Back
83
Crossrail Ref: P102, Marlow Branch Timetable Summary (WINSRB-14604D-030). Back
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