Select Committee on Crossrail Bill Minutes of Evidence


Examination of Witnesses (Questions 14500 - 14519)

  14500. What is a high level output specification when it is translated for us please?

   (Mr Garratt) It is the specification which Government is expected to give to Network Rail in order to determine and ensure that Government policies are pursued when issues of capacity and other matters are taken into account. That process is in a sense under way because Network Rail is currently out to consultation on something called the freight utilisation strategies which take into account the forecasts we referred to earlier.

  14501. We have got the Government wishing for and anticipating rail freight growth. We have got the intention that there should be network capacity and we have got the expectation of consultation with the rail industry. Against that background let us look at your first slide please, which is figure 1.[29]


  14502. Chairman: That is document A166.

  14503. Mr Kingston: Headlines only please.

   (Mr Garratt) Simply looking at the tables at the bottom, 118 million tonnes rising to 146 million. You can see on the top line maritime containers growing from 13 to 31 million and aggregates and other minerals growing from 22 to 30, so we see growth in total and in the fields we are interested in.

  14504. To those growths of traffic you apply the GB freight model?

   (Mr Garratt) We do.

  14505. In order to assess what that might mean, is that correct?

   (Mr Garratt) Yes, that is right. We turn these into increases in freight trade movements which is clearly what we are interested in in terms of capacity.

  14506. Mr Kingston: Let us have a look at your figure two please.

  14507. Mr Binley: If I can just understand the question, if you go back to that figure 1, is the argument you are making that because of capacity constraints you are not going to get the expansion in the market place between 14 and 30 that you would expect and so your forecasts are related to the resource rather than to the market?

   (Mr Garratt) These are unconstrained forecasts.

  14508. Mr Binley: They are unconstrained? I am surprised because you have got a very sizeable growth between 2005 and 2014 and yet a very limited one for the next 16 years.

   (Mr Garratt) If you look at the second line, the explanation almost entirely lies in coal. The forecasts you see in front of you at the moment are based upon the policies that the DTI was putting forward a couple of years ago in terms of energy policy prices and so forth which anticipated a gradual reduction in coal. More recent experience is that that is unlikely to take place, so these are extremely cautious forecasts. Personally I would expect the coal figure to be substantially higher. It is an area of the rail market which is in effect dictated by Government policy on energy.

  14509. Chairman: Taking this point, though, even if you continue the same forecasting on coal in 2014 and 2030 it would still be a drop.

   (Mr Garratt) I am sorry.

  14510. If your explanation on coal is there, but if you contribute coal again in 2014 and 2030 it continues at more or less the same figure of 14 million tonnes and the 146 at the bottom still would be considerably less growth.

   (Mr Garratt) It would still be growth.

  14511. It would still be growth but it would not be anywhere near—

   (Mr Garratt) That is right. As far as the aggregate estimate is concerned, because we are looking at aggregates in containers here really, the aggregates forecast for 40 is to a certain extent predicated on growth in constructions in the south east and the maritime container traffic that you see we expect to carry on growing very considerably.

  14512. Mr Binley: Sorry, but when you are presenting this it impacts on the credibility of other figures.

  14513. Mr Kingston: Certainly.

  14514. Mr Binley: So I still have not had a satisfactory answer as to why we have had very sizeable growth in the next nine years and yet in the remaining 16 years of the period you have got in truth hardly any growth at all. I just wonder whether you think the world is going to stop growing in about nine years' time and then we are going to go along at a reasonable level.

  14515. Mr Kingston: We certainly do think the world will not carry on growing but it is a question of which part of it will grow. As Mr Garratt has explained, with regard to maritime containers, if you look at the top line you can see very significant growth. That reflects what is anticipated to happen both with regard to port capacity and levels of import, and Mr Garratt can enlarge on that. With regard to coal, as has been explained, significant reduction based on current DTI forecasting. I have to say that, as Mr Garratt as indicated, that may all change, who knows, next month maybe, when we are—

  14516. Chairman: But your aggregates figures are in contrast with what your previous witness said and indeed what Mr Garratt said that aggregates are going to grow in the south.

  14517. Mr Kingston: No, with respect. We are going to grow in terms of rail freight tonnages through to 2014. There is then, as you can see, a decline of two million tonnes. Why is that, Mr Garratt?

   (Mr Garratt) Because by 2030 the amount of house building in total in the south east will be expected to tail off. What we are talking about is the programme of construction and expansion in the next 25 years.

  14518. Chairman: I think I disagree on some of that figure because the forecast is for further future growth in the housing market. I accept that there are certain people who doubt whether that should take placed but the forecasts are not for restriction from 2014 onwards but are for continued growth.

   (Mr Garratt) Let us say these are very cautious figures.

  14519. Mr Kingston: These are not intended to be figures to impress you on the basis of being incredibly optimistic, that is, producing very high figures with regard too what happens with rail freight. They are modelled on the basis which, as Mr Garratt has told you, is effectively DfT audited, so what has gone into the modelling exercise is something we do not understand to be contentious. What that means in terms of house building in the south east and how the aggregate requirements are met may be another matter. We all know what the predictions are with regard to levels of growth through to 2021 and indeed to 2025.


29   Committee Ref: A166, Figure 1: Rail Freight Tonnages, Actual & Forecast (LINEWD-33005-002). Back


 
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