Examination of Witnesses (Questions 14500
- 14519)
14500. What is a high level output specification
when it is translated for us please?
(Mr Garratt) It is the specification
which Government is expected to give to Network Rail in order
to determine and ensure that Government policies are pursued when
issues of capacity and other matters are taken into account. That
process is in a sense under way because Network Rail is currently
out to consultation on something called the freight utilisation
strategies which take into account the forecasts we referred to
earlier.
14501. We have got the Government wishing for
and anticipating rail freight growth. We have got the intention
that there should be network capacity and we have got the expectation
of consultation with the rail industry. Against that background
let us look at your first slide please, which is figure 1.[29]
14502. Chairman: That is document A166.
14503. Mr Kingston: Headlines only please.
(Mr Garratt) Simply looking
at the tables at the bottom, 118 million tonnes rising to 146
million. You can see on the top line maritime containers growing
from 13 to 31 million and aggregates and other minerals growing
from 22 to 30, so we see growth in total and in the fields we
are interested in.
14504. To those growths of traffic you apply
the GB freight model?
(Mr Garratt) We do.
14505. In order to assess what that might mean,
is that correct?
(Mr Garratt) Yes, that is
right. We turn these into increases in freight trade movements
which is clearly what we are interested in in terms of capacity.
14506. Mr Kingston: Let us have a look
at your figure two please.
14507. Mr Binley: If I can just understand
the question, if you go back to that figure 1, is the argument
you are making that because of capacity constraints you are not
going to get the expansion in the market place between 14 and
30 that you would expect and so your forecasts are related to
the resource rather than to the market?
(Mr Garratt) These are unconstrained
forecasts.
14508. Mr Binley: They are unconstrained?
I am surprised because you have got a very sizeable growth between
2005 and 2014 and yet a very limited one for the next 16 years.
(Mr Garratt) If you look
at the second line, the explanation almost entirely lies in coal.
The forecasts you see in front of you at the moment are based
upon the policies that the DTI was putting forward a couple of
years ago in terms of energy policy prices and so forth which
anticipated a gradual reduction in coal. More recent experience
is that that is unlikely to take place, so these are extremely
cautious forecasts. Personally I would expect the coal figure
to be substantially higher. It is an area of the rail market which
is in effect dictated by Government policy on energy.
14509. Chairman: Taking this point, though,
even if you continue the same forecasting on coal in 2014 and
2030 it would still be a drop.
(Mr Garratt) I am sorry.
14510. If your explanation on coal is there,
but if you contribute coal again in 2014 and 2030 it continues
at more or less the same figure of 14 million tonnes and the 146
at the bottom still would be considerably less growth.
(Mr Garratt) It would still
be growth.
14511. It would still be growth but it would
not be anywhere near—
(Mr Garratt) That is right.
As far as the aggregate estimate is concerned, because we are
looking at aggregates in containers here really, the aggregates
forecast for 40 is to a certain extent predicated on growth in
constructions in the south east and the maritime container traffic
that you see we expect to carry on growing very considerably.
14512. Mr Binley: Sorry, but when you
are presenting this it impacts on the credibility of other figures.
14513. Mr Kingston: Certainly.
14514. Mr Binley: So I still have not
had a satisfactory answer as to why we have had very sizeable
growth in the next nine years and yet in the remaining 16 years
of the period you have got in truth hardly any growth at all.
I just wonder whether you think the world is going to stop growing
in about nine years' time and then we are going to go along at
a reasonable level.
14515. Mr Kingston: We certainly do think
the world will not carry on growing but it is a question of which
part of it will grow. As Mr Garratt has explained, with regard
to maritime containers, if you look at the top line you can see
very significant growth. That reflects what is anticipated to
happen both with regard to port capacity and levels of import,
and Mr Garratt can enlarge on that. With regard to coal, as has
been explained, significant reduction based on current DTI forecasting.
I have to say that, as Mr Garratt as indicated, that may all change,
who knows, next month maybe, when we are—
14516. Chairman: But your aggregates
figures are in contrast with what your previous witness said and
indeed what Mr Garratt said that aggregates are going to grow
in the south.
14517. Mr Kingston: No, with respect.
We are going to grow in terms of rail freight tonnages through
to 2014. There is then, as you can see, a decline of two million
tonnes. Why is that, Mr Garratt?
(Mr Garratt) Because by
2030 the amount of house building in total in the south east will
be expected to tail off. What we are talking about is the programme
of construction and expansion in the next 25 years.
14518. Chairman: I think I disagree on
some of that figure because the forecast is for further future
growth in the housing market. I accept that there are certain
people who doubt whether that should take placed but the forecasts
are not for restriction from 2014 onwards but are for continued
growth.
(Mr Garratt) Let us say
these are very cautious figures.
14519. Mr Kingston: These are not intended
to be figures to impress you on the basis of being incredibly
optimistic, that is, producing very high figures with regard too
what happens with rail freight. They are modelled on the basis
which, as Mr Garratt has told you, is effectively DfT audited,
so what has gone into the modelling exercise is something we do
not understand to be contentious. What that means in terms of
house building in the south east and how the aggregate requirements
are met may be another matter. We all know what the predictions
are with regard to levels of growth through to 2021 and indeed
to 2025.
29 Committee Ref: A166, Figure 1: Rail Freight Tonnages,
Actual & Forecast (LINEWD-33005-002). Back
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