Examination of Witnesses (Questions 14540
- 14559)
14540. In terms of capacity we have been talking
about "paths", is paths an effective way of defining
capacity for us?
(Mr Garratt) I think so,
yes, although one has to remember looking into the future that
the working timetable is in fact built up incrementally, that
is when an operator or a customer wants an extra path what happens
is the procedure is to see if an extra path can be found in what
is usually known as white space amongst all the other trains and,
therefore, you can find extra paths in the working timetable up
to a point.
14541. The Committee has had explanations already
of the rules of the plan and how those matters impact on looking
at capacity.
(Mr Garratt) Yes.
14542. Crossrail services are planned to be
more frequent than other services, is that right?
(Mr Garratt) Yes.
14543. What is the effect in terms of the gaps
available on the network with regard to pathing and capacity?
(Mr Garratt) The particular
problem for rail freight is that it moves along what are generally
passenger routes and then has to turn off and on to these routes
either to cross, as I say, at Stratford on to the North London
Line or to access terminals over Great Western, so it is crossing
on the flat between other trains. If the frequency of other trains
increases the challenge of finding adequate gaps increases as
well. The Crossrail services being more frequent, the challenge
is that much greater.
14544. That is an impact in terms of gaining
access to terminals. What happens in terms of having higher frequency
services running at different speeds and the effect of those on
other services?
(Mr Garratt) Clearly, where
the routes are shared that also squeezes out rail freight capacity.
For example, any rail freight trains on Great Western using the
current electric lines, the slow passenger lines, would suffer
as well.
14545. On Day 48, that is Tuesday of this week,
Mr Watson at paragraph 13718, among other things, told the Committee:
"I have already mentioned the need to be absolutely clear
about access to terminals on the Great Western and to make absolutely
certain it is possible to get those freight trains in and out
without impacting on the Crossrail service." Do you agree
with that in terms of the importance of access?
(Mr Garratt) Yes, absolutely.
14546. Let us have figure 11, please.[37]
What is this intended to communicate to us, please, Mr Garratt?
(Mr Garratt) It is intended to
communicate the national consequence and role of the Crossrail
route. What this is showing is all those trains on a daily basis
which currently pass along the Crossrail route but obviously have
origins and destinations elsewhere. You can see that Crossrail
is having an impact in East Anglia, in Scotland, in South Wales,
over a very wide area.
14547. One of the things Mr Watson told the
Committee on Tuesday at 13858 in answer to a question from Mr
George, was " . . . in due course it is going to be necessary,
is it not, to look at a wider network in order to test the work
you have done so far and ensure that it is robust?" and Mr
Watson said: "And that is very much the case for freight
services where, as the freight operators have reminded the Working
Group frequently, just because a path works on a little bit of
the GE it does not mean it works through Manchester or into Glasgow."
Is that correct?
(Mr Garratt) That is correct,
yes.
14548. In terms of impacts on the network, is
that figure informing us about how far those impacts might spread?
(Mr Garratt) Absolutely.
14549. The most critical paths on the Crossrail
network for freight, where are they?
(Mr Garratt) The most critical
stretch is probably at Forest Gate.
14550. Why?
(Mr Garratt) The forecast
volume of traffic is likely to grow more considerably there and
there is conflict with high frequency Crossrail services being
proposed crossing on and off the Great Eastern.
14551. Let us go back to your figure 8.[38]
You have told us what this is showing in terms of the busiest
days for 2004, 2014 and 2030, is that right?
(Mr Garratt) Correct.
14552. The forecast growth rates in train movements
to 2030, what are they, please, at Forest Gate and east of West
Drayton?
(Mr Garratt) The compound
annual growth rate from 2015 to 2030 is 3.9% a year for the Great
Eastern at Forest Gate and, I think, 1.9% growth rate on the Great
Western.
14553. Realistic growth rates or fantastically
optimistic? How would you put it, please?
(Mr Garratt) Particularly
given the conversation we have just been having these seem to
me to be relatively cautious growth rates.
14554. In terms of any expectation that they
might actually occur?
(Mr Garratt) I think there
is a very good expectation of their occurring because if we look
at the performance of the rail freight industry over the last
11 years since privatisation the compound growth rate nationally
has been 4.8% a year, so these are forecasts which assume a decline
in the growth of rail freight.
14555. What do you say about the position as
far as Crossrail is concerned and the importance or otherwise
of Crossrail respecting those growth rates and providing the ability
for them to occur?
(Mr Garratt) I would say
the normal process in any such assessment, any new infrastructure
development, is to take into account both organic or underlying
growth and growth as a consequence of committed schemes before
considering the impact of its own traffic development.
14556. Does the Department for Transport give
us any means of assessing the importance or value in environmental
terms of rail freight as opposed to road freight?
(Mr Garratt) Yes. There
is a measure which was developed a few years ago, initially by
the Strategic Rail Authority and adopted by the DfT which is known
as sensitive lorry miles.
14557. How does that work?
(Mr Garratt) Basically the
environmental impact of an HGV on a range of different road types
is quantified according to emissions, noise, accidents and so
forth, so that one can then determine the environmental cost of
that road movement.
14558. Have you been able to undertake any sort
of exercise here which would give the Committee an indication
of the sort of values that arise from applying that methodology?
(Mr Garratt) I have. We
applied that methodology, we can do that through the GB freight
model, and the figure we arrived at at 2030 traffic levels was
a cost of £168 million per annum in terms of sensitive lorry
miles. That is the value at which sensitive lorry miles would
measure the transfer of all that rail freight along the Crossrail
corridor on to road.
14559. Let us have your figure 13 and see whether
or not we can make that clear.[39]
First of all, this is an exercise which is undertaken using DfT
methodology, is that correct?
(Mr Garratt) That is right.
37 Committee Ref: A166, Figure 11: Rail freight trains
passing along Crossrail corridor (LINEWD-33005-012). Back
38
Committee Ref: A166, Figure 8: Forecast path utilisation 2030
(LINEWD-33005-009). Back
39
Committee Ref: A166, Figure 13: The environmental value of rail
freight traffic on the Crossrail corridor (LINEWD-33005-014). Back
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