Conclusions and recommendations
1. In
our view, the term "conflict prevention" is confusing,
as it appears to cover military operations of all kinds, from
war-fighting to peace-keeping operations. (Paragraph 3)
2. While we accept
that it is difficult for the MoD to provide accurate estimates
of the costs of operations at the beginning of the financial year,
we cannot see how this can be a sufficient reason for making no
forecast at all. We recommend that the MoD reflect the forecast
costs of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in its Main Estimates
for 2007-08. The MoD could usefully include in its Estimates
Memorandum (which we would intend to publish) an account of its
planning assumptions for the costs of these operations. (Paragraph
4)
3. We remain of the
opinion that provision for all operations should be made in the
MoD's Main Estimates, rather than left to Supplementary Estimates.
(Paragraph 5)
4. At the Winter Supplementary
Estimates, the MoD estimated that the cost of operations in Iraq
in 2006-07 would be £860 million. The estimated cost has
now risen to £1,002 million. (Paragraph 6)
5. While it was expected
that the Spring Supplementary Estimate would request additional
funding for operations in Iraq, the scale of the increase is surprising…
The cost of operations in Iraq in the current year appears to
be over 10% higher than the MoD was expecting last November. (Paragraph
8)
6. It is striking
that the cost of operations in Iraq in 2006-07 is now expected
to exceed the outturn cost in 2005-06 by £44 million…
We call on the MoD to explain in its response to this report why
it expects the costs of operations in Iraq to be greater this
year than last. (Paragraph 11)
7. At the Winter Supplementary
Estimates, the MoD estimated that the cost of operations in Afghanistan
in 2006-07 would be £540 million. The estimated cost has
now risen to £770 million. (Paragraph 12)
8. The cost of operations
in Afghanistan in the current year appears to be almost a third
higher than the MoD was expecting last November. (Paragraph 15)
9. The Spring Supplementary
Estimate shows that the expected cost of operations in the Balkans
in 2006-07 is £53 million. (Paragraph 16)
10. We recommend that
the MoD clarify in its response to this report in which other
theatres it has been carrying out conflict prevention operations
during 2006-07. (Paragraph 18)
11. We recommend that
the MoD clarify in its response to this report what it sees as
the purpose of the Votes A, and how the maxima stated relate to
the actual strengths of the Armed Forces. (Paragraph 22)
12. The House of Commons
will be asked to approve the Spring Supplementary Estimates, and
the Votes A, on Monday 12 March. While we think it important to
bring to the House's attention the increasing cost of operations
in Iraq and Afghanistan, we believe it to be essential that these
operations be adequately funded. We therefore recommend that the
House approve the request for resources set out in the MoD's Spring
Supplementary Estimate. (Paragraph 23)
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