YEAR	Convoys out of AWE	No. of TCHD carriers	Total No. loaded	Estimated Warheads		Convoys in AWE	No. of TCHD carriers	Total No. loaded	Estimated Warheads
2000	2	6	4	8		1	4	3	6
2001	3	9	6	12		5	15	10	20
						1	5	4	8
2002	4	12	8	16		5	15	10	20
						1	4	3	6
2003	4	12	8	8 (1 in each TCHD)		5	15	10	20
2004	2	6	4	16?		2	6	4	8
2005	4	12	8	16?		4	12	8	16
2006	3	9	6	12?		4	12	8	16
Total	22	66	44	88		28	88	60	120
? =	Possibly	Less
	6 more	convoys	In	AWE
	22 more	TCHD	In	AWE
	12 more	loaded	In	AWE
Trident	Warheads	Out	ce	120 -88 =		32

 

Notes to Table

TCHD = Truck Cargo Heavy Duty

Convoys are all loaded convoys

There are unlikely to be more than 2 warheads in each carrier, but there could be less.

Original capability16 m x 4 subs 64 missiles x 8 warheads each = 512

Data is recorded from 80% observation and 20% deduction

 

Warhead Numbers

There is no certainly in numbers because it is government policy to keep them secret. But the stockpile never got anywhere near the original 512 capability. in the last six years, 22 more loaded TCHD carriers have returned to AWE from Scotland than went out, indicating a withdrawal of between 30 and 50 warheads already without being announced, leaving an operational stockpile of between 170 and 150 warheads.

 

White Paper Numbers

The reduction mentioned in the White Paper, reflects existing numbers that have already been made for any number of reasons.

Who is the 160 message going to?

160 is still a large figure since 4 is enough to totally destroy a rogue state

Given the limited number for use to change the balance of power in a country 160 how many countries is the PM talking about? How many wars?

 

11 January 2007