Supplementary memorandum submitted by
the Rt Hon Alan Johnson MP, Secretary of State for Education and
Skills
LINKS BETWEEN
EXTENDING COMPULSORY
EDUCATION AND
RAISING ATTAINMENT
When I appeared before the Select Committee
last week, on 18 April, I was asked about evidence that compelling
people to stay in learning for longer could lead to an increase
in educational attainment. I said that I thought there was evidence
of this kind from the experience of other countries, and committed
to write to the committee with further details.
In fact, the strongest evidence that compelling
people to stay in education for longer can lead to a higher level
of attainment comes from our own country. In 1997 a change in
the law was implemented so that all young people had to stay in
school until the end of the school year in which they turned 16,
rather than being able to leave at the beginning of the Easter
holiday if they turned 16 between 1 September and 31 January.
A study has found that those compelled to stay until the end of
the year by this change in the law achieved more than the equivalent
group in the previous year, who were able to leave earlier (Del
Bono, E and Galindo-Rueda, F (2006) The Long Term Impacts of Compulsory
Schooling: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in School Leaving
Data, ISER Working Paper 2006-44). Of course, staying until the
end of the year meant that they were more likely to take the terminal
exams that lead to qualifications, but the key point from this
research is that compulsion can lead to increased attainment.
Turning to international comparisons, recent
experience in the state of Western Australia provides evidence
that a change in the leaving age can increase participation, although
it is too early for data on attainment. In 2006 the leaving age
there was successfully changed from 15 to 16, and in 2008 they
will move it from 16 to 17. Raising the leaving age in 2006 appears
to have raised full-year participation from 80% to 98%.
Whilst noting that it is difficult to draw conclusions
on the influence of the length of compulsory education on "early
school leaving", which means the proportion of 18-24 year
olds with below level 2 qualifications and not in education or
training, a recent European Commission report suggests that a
recent increase in the leaving age in Poland may have led to a
decrease in the rate of early school leaving (GHK (2005) Study
on Access to Education and Training, Basic Skills and Early School
Leaving ref: DG EAC 38/04).
And a review of evidence from Canada and the
US (Oreopoulos (2005) Stay in school: New lessons on the benefits
of raising the legal-school leaving age. C D Howe Institute Commentary;
No 233; Dec 2005) suggests that raising the leaving age can have
an impact on school completion rates, which means achievement
of the High School Diploma or equivalent. Bigger gains were seen
in improved weekly earnings and a reduction in the probability
of being unemployed. These effects were seen despite the fact
that the policies considered in this review aimed only to keep
young people in school, and did not offer alternative options.
I hope that this further information is helpful
to the committee.
April 2007
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