Select Committee on Environmental Audit Minutes of Evidence


Examination of Witnesses (Questions 380 - 398)

TUESDAY 20 MARCH 2007

MR ANTHONY HOBLEY AND MR MITCHELL FEIERSTEIN

  Q380  Chairman: Those of us who have a concern about the level of carbon concentration in the atmosphere would like to see as much offsetting take place as possible, as long as it is genuine, meeting some of the concerns that you expressed. I am interested in whether there is almost an analogy with what is happening on stock exchanges. London has a very successful A market. It is causing some angst in New York, that we are getting a lot of business here, but of course it is good for people trying to raise capital. If we want to encourage offsetting, we want a regulatory regime which is sufficient to boost the confidence of the purchaser but not so bureaucratic that it inhibits the provider of schemes. One of the criticisms I have heard of the CDM process is that it is rather bureaucratic and expensive, and a lot of small schemes will struggle to qualify under the CDM so they might be a natural for a thriving voluntary market. Obviously we need things like a verifiable registry—that seems to me a sine qua non—but there is a careful balance to be struck within a level of regulation which does not inhibit the market, is there not?

  Mr Feierstein: Absolutely. I make the strong case that if you look at HFC-23, which is 58% of all registered credits right now, it is not the least-cost option and it is a valid CDM programme, but you are paying pence on the pound to destroy one of the world's most potent greenhouse gases, 11,700 tonnes to one tonne of CO2. And those are CERs. Someone is paying pence on the pound and they are selling them for up to €30 last May. That is not driving new technologies and most of those are generated in China. A VER programme where you are investing money until it could become a CER project—those where you are investing in new technology, like a wind farm, a renewable energy project—are going to be more robust than HFC-23, for one specific example, which would be not included under the current scheme.

  Mr Hobley: I think that is right. In my day job as General Counsel to the Carbon Funds at Climate Change Capital, we did two of the biggest HFC-23 deals last year: a 20 million tonne deal and a 30 million tonne deal. The cost per tonne to generate CER from an HFC-23 project is well under one euro a tonne. In the Defra paper I think there is a bit of a misleading statement, where they talk about the fact that CERs and EUAs regulatory units cost more than VERs. The correct analysis is how much it costs to reduce a tonne rather than how much they are trading at. Of course, a CER is going to trade at a higher value than a VER because there is a regulatory mandated need for it: compliant buyers have to have it or they face heavy penalties. So that is all a bit misleading in the paper. Quite a lot of VER projects may cost more per tonne than it will for many CDM projects and you get a lot of associated benefits over and above those you get from an agency HFC-23 project—although I will correct one issue. We have not done any HFC-23 projects outside of China. In China, 65% of the revenues are going into a renewable energy fund and a fund for poverty in Northern China, so Chinese HFC-23 projects have an awful lot of added benefit because the Chinese government have mandated that they do. That is not necessarily the case in places like India. In terms of pricing, the correct analysis is: How much do you spend per tonne? rather than how much you can sell the credits for.

  Q381  Mr Caton: You do get the impression, looking at Defra's proposals, that CER is good, VER is bad. Which aspect is worse: the fact that they are putting down VERs or the fact that they are giving too much faith to CERs and EUAs?

  Mr Feierstein: The problem with the basic tenet they have is a miscommunication in the document. The document says it is the definitive standard for voluntary carbon offsetting but their definitions of VERs and CERs are not 100% correct. They lead you to believe that a VER is something that cannot be certified. I think there is a lot of confusion in their definitions. All certification means is that a credit has been certified under a protocol. A VER can be certified. The typical definition in the market of a VER is not a voluntary emission reduction; it is a verified emission reduction. In all the documentation I have from every verifier, the DOEs, they refer to VERs as "verified emission reductions" not "voluntary". You can have a voluntary credit that is verified and certified, which is what we purchase and put in the Bank of New York registry, or you can have a CER that is verified and certified under the CDM mechanism. There is a big misunderstanding in the drafting that needs to be addressed.

  Mr Hobley: I think that is right. The fund that I work for and the funds of other members of LCCS are predominantly at this stage focused on the regulatory market, but we can spend a significant proportion of the money we have under management in the VER market and we are looking at VER projects. The amount of work you have to do as an investor to ensure they are verified and so on can be more because you, as a buyer of VERs, want to be very sure of their integrity. We are looking at some small projects in Africa, for example, which, because of the CDM infrastructure not necessarily being in place yet and ownership rights around VERs and CERs being more confusing, it is better for us to do as VER projects than as CDM projects. It is just a cost issue, because the bureaucracy to go for the whole CDM process can be daunting. It is also that some of the rules in the CDM process at the moment favour bigger projects. With some of the smaller projects—the common one is the heating stoves or the solar stoves, projects like that in small villages—to make it financially viable you have to aggregate lots of small households and villages and so forth, which is very difficult to do under the rules of CDM but you have more flexibility in the VER market to do that. It is still absolutely critical, as an investor in those projects, to ensure that they are verified and there are real reductions; otherwise you are throwing your investor's money away. Talking as an investor, it would be good to see a bit more harmony in international standards. Again, I come back to the point that the UK Government has an amazing opportunity here to set the benchmark, to catalyse those standards going to the next level so that you have global confidence in them.

  Q382  Mr Caton: You have already mentioned the problem with phase 1 of the EU ETS. We have been told that, on the back of the Government's proposed code, retailers are already offering EUAs on the market, which really is equivalent to "hot air". Do you think there is going to be a backlash against Defra's code, when people realise they might be buying something that has a market value but it is not reducing emissions at all?

  Mr Feierstein: You have hit the nail on the head there. I think that could be a big problem. If that comes out to be the case, I think it could be extremely damaging. This is, in essence, an emerging market. When you have an emerging market, it is extremely fragile and anything could set it back quite a way; for example, if you have credits in there that are not 100% robust. I can also refer again to this advertisement for Pure. They talk, in terms of the projects that they have, about a bunch of them, and I know they did have some Chicago Climate Exchange credits. Chicago Climate Exchange has some credits that are "business as usual" and that gets into a whole different round. You have business as usual credits that are not additional; that is, they would have happened in the normal course of business. But Pure may have CERs but they also have credits that they have purchased from other programmes and I notice they word it very carefully on the website by saying that they only buy credits from "100% legally binding programmes". That is the exact terminology that they use for CCX, that it is a "legally binding programme". All that means is that the people who sign up say, "Okay, I agree to offset [x] amount" but it does not talk about the quality and it does not quantify the reductions that go in that programme. A lot of people have issue with the transparency and methodology behind verification in that programme, CCX, specifically. If, indeed, they are still purchasing those credits, it would not be good for that programme, and it would really speak poorly for the entire 56-page document because they are endorsing that programme.

  Mr Hobley: I have two points on that. Certainly from questions that were asked at their workshop yesterday, Defra have woken up to that issue. I think they are going to address that by timing, in that they are now talking about the standard not being in place until the end of 2007/beginning of 2008. They neatly side-step the issue of having phase 1 EUAs being used in the offset scheme because they recognise now that that could discredit the proposal and weaken their arguments around the regulatory units. It may be something you would want to ask them when they come in later, but if they were to use phase 1EUAs I think that would be an issue. We are all reasonably confident that phase 2, the cap and trade scheme, is going to be more robust, but it is still not completely transparent that the allocations will be as robust as they need to be and it may still be that one phase 2 EUA does not really account for the same reductions as, say, a VER from a properly verified voluntary project.

  Q383  Mr Stuart: I am sure it is clear from what you have said already but do you think that if Defra did not go ahead and there was not intervention by Government that the voluntary market would regulate itself? Would the cream rise to the top and would we have, in a few years' time, a robust system based on market pressures?

  Mr Hobley: I think we will. The VER market is growing very rapidly. It allows you to deploy capital in a more flexible way alongside the CDM market. There will probably be some backlash against the poor quality end of the market—and, undoubtedly, there is a poor quality end, there is the cowboy end of the market. That backlash will result in the market coming together with all of these different standards, realising they probably should have one standard. Defra have an opportunity to avoid that dip and that backlash and to catalyse that progression much more quickly, and that is what they should do. They have done it already in other climate change policy measures; hence London and the UK has the greatest concentration of expertise and the most successful business sector in this market. They have an opportunity to do that again and therefore influence what happens in North America and other parts of the world where VERs will be an incredibly important part of the market.

  Q384  Mr Stuart: If you believe the market will sort itself out anyway then government regulation is always a large, clumsy thumb and will necessarily lead to some distortions. If you believe genuinely they will change, why have it? Why not dissuade them?

  Mr Feierstein: Why do I think it is going to be efficient market theory? Efficient market theory will govern where it is going to go. New York has seen, because we have been looking at this for quite a while, a tiering process go on. Premium and different credits are being traded at discount and the market is going to recognise that. It is going to be an efficient market. Right now it is an emerging market. Emerging markets, by definition, have extremely high volatility. That is why we saw a 71% drop in the CER prices in one day back in May, so it is still very, very, very new. In coming up with a government policy that is robust, I cannot add enough that developing a broad-based global policy consensus through the creation of a benchmark standard for VERs as well as CERs is a good thing. The reason for that being the leadership position: you define it and basically you are paving the way to move forward. There is an important difference here out there. With the carbon cowboys, the 87 of them—once again I will bring up the example—CO2 mitigation is business. I do not know if you have seen the Lehman Brothers report by John Llewellyn the economist. There are business opportunities out there and they make a strong business case for CO2 mitigation. There is a charity component to this. Sustainable development is an aspect that we look at in all the credits that we will purchase but you have to differentiate between CO2 mitigation and charitable contributions. There are people on the websites and people out there who try to "guilt" people into buying credits. They say, "You have to support this tiny little project" but, unfortunately, if those projects are not verified and certified you are then into the problem where it could be a fraud and somebody could be stealing the money and it has never happened. To add assurances that it has happened, we use DOEs. We send somebody in. We want a verification report and we want to see the monitoring report, the baseline studies—we want to see everything to authenticate it.

  Q385  Mr Stuart: The point is about the Government. You have misgivings about Defra's policy but are you both saying that you think the UK Government coming in and setting a standard is the right thing to do but it is just that this particular intervention is not the right one? You do not want to leave it to the market; you believe there is a role for the UK Government and that they can then help market, if you like, to cohere around standards.

  Mr Feierstein: They could, but they would need to acknowledge that there are some pretty good standards out there which exist. I think they should have had a look at those before they came out with yet another one.

  Mr Hobley: The offset proposal is not another standard, in terms of the standards that are out there of the specific projects that create VERs, whereas the offset standard is for an offset product for a company that provides. They are different. I think this is a good thing, provided it is written well. We say, as LCCS, that it is not Government's job to write another standard for individual projects or to pick one standard over another, but they can say—which I think is good governance—"These are the integrity concerns we have over the market. If you bring projects to us that meet these standards ..." They tell industry what they have to achieve, then industry can come up with the standards and industry has something to aim for. It is not trying to create a standard for individual projects in a vacuum; it is being given a goal or a baseline that has to be achieved. I think that is what governments do all the time. They say: "This is the minimum integrity that has to be achieved. You, the private sector, now go away and do that because that is what you are good at."

  Q386  Mr Stuart: In terms of the Government acting to promote the voluntary sector, is that the single most important thing it can do? Is there anything else it should be doing?

  Mr Hobley: From our perspective, that is the single most important thing it can do: to galvanise and take the voluntary market to the next level. One of LCCS's objectives is to promote the UK and UK industry in this area, yet again to give the UK and London as the global centre of the carbon market another advantage, which it has done by early regulation to-date.

  Mr Feierstein: I think the impact of a good policy is important. Whether it is the role of the Government to come in and do that is another question. And how long it will take to review this properly is a third question that we need to examine carefully. I think there are a lot of people who have been involved. We were the first ones to get involved in August 2005 in creating what we felt was a robust and credible programme to bring to market. If you can get the United States on board, that is fantastic. If the UK Government can come out with something, then that is fantastic as well. But another consideration is that the EU ETS framework was not considered by Australia or the United States and, considering the scale and magnitude of the problem in the US that is not being addressed, if something can be in neutral ground—not saying, "Well, only the EU ETS credits"—it offers a compromise for people in the US to adapt or adopt, and the possibility that these can be used in any future regulatory scheme is their entitlement. So if you set the bar high enough, they could be incorporated in any new regulatory scheme that is set up. That is why I think it is a leadership role and you guys can set a great example by doing it correctly.

  Q387  Mr Stuart: I know you are opposed to any future reductions as being allowable: they should all have been verified and achieved. Given the capital investment that is required and given the fact that it is a fledgling market, could one have rules that allowed a timeframe of three- or four-years ahead? Does one need to be as absolute as you appear to be in your paper?

  Mr Feierstein: I am not opposed to it. I do not think it is a prudent investment at the current time. I think that could be highly speculative. Responsibly speaking, if I were to be investing in the market I would rather have something that I could quantify. I am not saying, going forward, that we cannot come up with some sort of insurance or reinsurance on that reduction that would pay out should it fall down or be replaced but that is not going to be the most cost-effective allocation of resource to creating a scaleable production that is going to come up with an expeditious, scaleable response to the problem in a three- to five-year window as we seem to have necessary at the present time.

  Q388  Mr Stuart: Is that the view of the LCCS?

  Mr Hobley: I am sorry, could I clarify the question?

  Q389  Mr Stuart: Take forestation, for instance, where there is a whole issue about some offsets taking 100 years before you offset the carbon from your flight, Mr Feierstein's view, very strongly, is that you should have achieved the offset before you sell it, thus it is verifiable and bankable. Does the LCCS see things in the same way?

  Mr Hobley: The standard talks about, if you are the seller of an offset you have to buy it within six months, and, in terms of consumer confidence and business confidence in what they are buying, yes, we would support that. In my day job—and other members of LCCS do this all the time—we are investing in CDM projects and now voluntary projects and we are putting in place contracts for a five- or seven- or ten-year timeframe. There is a bit of a difficulty for anything post-2012 but I think we are fast approaching a point where we will have some confidence around paying money and entering into commitments for post-2012 as well. We say, "We will buy these from you" and quite often we will provide significant advance payments for credits that are not going to be produced until 2008/2009/2010/2011/2012 because we know that there is a market that goes forward until 2012 and so we are making assumptions that there will be buyers and there will be demand for what we are now committing to buy. If you put a voluntary code in place and you know it is going to be in place for a reasonable period of time, you then, as a market player, have funds, and banks will provide liquidity and all the rest of it, to supply this into the market. You can make legitimate assumptions around what the demand will be and then take the business decision about whether you are prepared to enter into a commitment—

  Q390  Mr Stuart: Selling it to your investors now on the basis that you will reap the crop later is one thing. Selling it today to the consumer who thinks he has bought an offset today when he has not is another. I wonder, are you opposed to that?

  Mr Hobley: We agree with that. Providing there is a framework in place so that you as a buyer can evaluate what the market will be in the future, then that should not be detrimental to investing in those VER projects.

  Mr Feierstein: I agree. Could I clarify one thing which I may not have made clear in my answer? I will buy forward credits if we have a project that I own but I will not sell them forward until they have happened.

  Mr Stuart: I am clear on that.

  Q391  Mr Chaytor: Turning to the CDM, do you think the CDM will continue as a highly bureaucratic or highly regulated mechanism, or is it likely to soften as the years go by and take on more of the characteristics of the voluntary market, more flexibility and greater concern for wider sustainable development issues?

  Mr Feierstein: It is an emerging market and it is the first programme that has gone out and said that you could now buy and sell carbon. It is a guideline and there are a lot of really notable things. It is a good thing, it is healthy, but obviously there are going to be teething pains in any programme that you set up that, going forward, people are going to use the methodology more to try to correct.

  Q392  Mr Chaytor: But you are optimistic at the moment.

  Mr Feierstein: I am very optimistic about it but I think there is also such a need out there for some much more scaleable programme right now. If you can create a voluntary one, it could be integrated into the existing regulatory frameworks out there part and parcel. I think if you make a good enough mousetrap that is robust enough, it could be used everywhere.

  Mr Hobley: I am optimistic. Again, if you are asking me to bet, I think there will be a CDM post-2012 and over time it will get better. It will get better resource. You will get better people in the senior executive board: international negotiators and so on; it will become more professionalised; it will build up a cache of knowledge and methodologies. The VER market, if it is allowed to co-exist, can be a wonderful laboratory with lower bureaucratic thresholds that can feed into that learning process on the CDM. The only way you really learn resource projects is by doing them. If the threshold for smaller projects in the CDM is too high, you will not do them, so you will not learn important lessons. The VER market can be a very important laboratory. It can help inform and improve the CDM system.

  Q393  Mr Chaytor: Do you think that what we might call the HFC-23 programme is always going to be a feature of CDM?

  Mr Hobley: It is an international political issue. I think the current feeling in the market is that you probably will not have new HFC or big industrial gas projects post-2012. My concern, if that happens, is that you do not leave a vacuum, that you do not suddenly have all these incinerators turned off because they are quite expensive to run. You will have lots of HFC-23 in the atmosphere again, so maybe there will be a big discount, but there will be something that will be done to reduce the windfall you get from those huge projects and perhaps create a bit more of a level playing field with the energy efficiency projects and the CO2 projects.

  Mr Feierstein: That speaks again of price tiering. I think we have to look at the overall picture, where you have six greenhouse gases and the high 70 percentile for CO2. The three really big ones are CO2, nitrous oxide and methane. That comprises up to almost 96% (though the numbers could be a little bit off), but that is 96% of the problem, so let us talk about proportionality and figuring out how to mitigate those going forward, because that is the biggest part of the issue right now.

  Mr Feierstein: There is a lot of criticism of the big industrial gas projects but I would say several things in their defence. HFC-23, nitrous oxide, methane are powerful global-warming gases and if there is not a mechanism there to encourage and incentivise people to reduce those emissions, to destroy those emissions, they will be in the atmosphere causing global warming. If you are going to take them out of CDMs, it is critical you do not leave a vacuum and they are still regulated in some way and there is a heavy discount. Also, for many of us in this market they have created early wins which have impressed investors, which has allowed us to raise more money and given us more room to do the harder projects: the energy efficiency projects, the projects where you do not quite get those easy wins but where you have to do quite a lot of work to make them happen, even though do not produce as much CO2. So they have given the financial community more room to manoeuvre and allowed it to raise more capital as a result of those early wins. So those industrial gas projects are not all bad, but in the long term it is probably unsustainable for you to get that huge windfall on those projects as against smaller CDM projects.

  Q394  Mr Chaytor: As the voluntary market develops, what do you think the balance will be between investment in North America and Europe as against investment in developed countries?

  Mr Feierstein: The CO2 mitigation, as I have said, would make a strong business case. You are going to invest in technologies wherever you can best implement them. But it is not really significant if you produce a tonne of carbon in Central London or if you produce it in Delhi: taking a tonne out, is taking a tonne out.

  Q395  Mr Chaytor: The CDM finance you to reduce it in Central London.

  Mr Feierstein: Exactly but I think you should be able to. That is why the two markets are separate. If you can achieve something that is credible or viable, it does not matter where it will be as long as you can come up with methodology that you are comfortable with and have it verified and certified.

  Q396  Mr Chaytor: Is it easier to verify in North America and Europe than it is in central Africa?

  Mr Feierstein: If you use a company like SGS, which is a big verifier, they have over 45,000 employees in over 1,000 offices around the world so they are pretty well connected everywhere. They have the financial and legal accountability, in that what they are verifying and what they tell you in the documentation it is going to be able to get, and I have confidence and we go with that.

  Mr Hobley: It is also that there are different tiers of developing countries in terms of how easy it is to operate and verify. It is a lot easier to verify and feel confident as an investor around projects in China, Brazil, India than it is in maybe Tanzania, Uganda and so on. That is where the VER market can have a much greater impact in these early years, until those countries put in place the infrastructure that they need to work within CDM. There are different figures from Point Carbon and New Energy Finance and so on but I think there is something like—depending on whose figures—€3.5 billion to €6 billion in funds that are being deployed mainly in CDM, normally in JI but mainly in CDM, and that of course is all going to development countries. Of the Climate Change Capital Carbon Fund which is €800 million, we will probably deploy at least €400 million in China, simply because it is easier to do CDM projects and business in China, because of the way they have regulated it, than it is in other countries. A great proportion of the remainder of that will be in Brazil, India, Malaysia, Indonesia and so on. We are looking at Africa, but that is more VER projects, to be honest.

  Q397  Chairman: Just for clarification, because of the emphasis which you put rightly, in my view, on additionality, a tonne saved in London is not the same as a tonne saved in Delhi, is it? Because Britain is a signatory to Kyoto and therefore is obliged legally to make reductions. Those will happen under business as usual without the purchase of offset.

  Mr Hobley: I think you have raised an important point but additionality will be measured or assessed differently in those different places because of that. Additionality may be easier to show in China or Malaysia or Tanzania, where there is not as much regulation and there is not the same driver at the government level to achieve reductions, so in many respects it may be easier. You have a harder job to show additionality in London because you then have to go through probably quite a detailed regulatory analysis. But if that is an area of the economy which the Government have not regulated, they have not spotted that opportunity to reduce emissions—the Government is not going to spot and regulate every opportunity; they create a framework around that in which entrepreneurs can see the other opportunities they have missed and reduce them—then that should be additional, but you have to do a very careful regulatory analysis to see whether that would happen. Then you have to work with the Government to have that framework in place, because, as you know, each Kyoto Annex B country has an assigned amount and that is measured in these assigned amount units. Ideally, you want to tag that introduction in London with an assigned amount unit so that then there is no double counting, because, once you have spotted it and you reduce the emissions on a voluntary basis, the Government may say, "That's interesting, we should regulate that" and then you get a double-counting issue. You probably need Government to put the framework in place to allow you to do that. One of the things I picked up on yesterday at the Defra workshop is that, apparently, there is a lot of feedback coming in that as part of this offset standard people want to see domestic projects, and that people who offset quite like the fact that they are offsetting locally rather than globally. That is probably an important issue to think about.

  Mr Hobley: I agree with the comments. All I will say is that we believe there are things which certain governments have not picked up on yet, there still are opportunities for investment in those sectors, and that is where I would look. It might take a little detail to come up with the project design document but if you can recognise them then I think you would be the first one to be involved in them.

  Q398  Chairman: You have expressed some doubt about the market growth assumptions in the Defra consultation paper. If the code was implemented as it stands or if nothing happens—the two different assumptions—what do you think will happen to the voluntary market? Will it grow faster, slower, disappear?

  Mr Feierstein: I have not seen anything to support an uptake increase of six% of the 30% number. I was promised to get something on that but I have not received it yet. I do not know what was used for that. I would like to see the Regulatory Impact Analysis. I would like to see how price impacts that study as well, if at some point I would get that document.

  Mr Hobley: I think the voluntary market will still continue to grow alongside the standard. It may inhibit the uptake of this standard, so it may be counterproductive on the standard. If the door is left open to good quality VERs, this standard may find it has a much bigger uptake and influences similar standards globally and around the world. It may have a smaller uptake. The VER market may grow more slowly than it would if Defra took this opportunity to catalyse the development of VER to the next stage. I think there is a lot at stake here.

  Mr Feierstein: Finally, I would like to elaborate one more time that getting the United States on board I think is pretty critical. If you are just going to say. "We are going to take the easy way out and say just CERs, which is EU ETS, is going to be accepted" I think Washington would look at that as saying "We have already turned that down once, so do you have another idea?" I think it is important to get broad-based international consensus on it. We have to look at everything very carefully if we are going to set international policy consensus.

  Mr Hobley: Coming back to that question of a UK and London perspective, if this opportunity is not taken up I think it does not help. It will not damage overnight the leading position that London is securing as the finance centre for the carbon market, but it will not help either; whereas if Defra does grab this opportunity yet again to put the UK in a leading position in the development of the global carbon market, it will be yet another important development in securing London and the UK as the lead-in centre for the global carbon market and help London stay ahead of New York. Competition is undoubtedly going to come from New York and some of the other financial centres in Asia, so it would be very helpful for UK plc to have this initiative.

  Chairman: Thank you both very much indeed. That has been a very interesting and useful session. We are grateful to you for coming.





 
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