INTRODUCTION
9. Climate change is on a different scale from
any other political challenge. Its potential effects could be
both physically and economically devastating. It is not just the
size but the timing of these effects that poses such a challenge.
The lag between emitting CO2 and experiencing the resulting
rise in temperatures means we must take bold action today in the
hope of preventing dangerous climate change occurring in the future,
the impacts of which could be irreversible. Timing is also an
issue given the long term planning and investments required to
roll out new technologies and infrastructure, and thereby decarbonise
the economy.
10. These challenges underline the vital importance
of getting the structures and systems which support UK climate
change policy right. The UK's carbon reduction framework must
be firmly embedded in the structures of government and the economy,
so as to provide long term certainty and continuity. This necessitates
policy-making which seeks to establish and draws on political
consensus, which is based and updated on the best available science,
and which draws on a detailed understanding of the impacts of
policies on emissions, the economy, and everyday behaviour.
11. This report is about how the Government:
- sets targets for reductions in UK greenhouse
gases;
- assesses progress towards these targets by forecasting
the likely levels of future emissions;
- chooses policy instruments to deliver the requisite
cuts in emissions; and
- revises its package of climate change policies,
in the light of experience as to their effectiveness, and reassessments
of the scale and urgency of emissions reductions required.
Or, to put it more pointedly, it asks what lessons
can be learned from the UK Climate Change Programme Review, and
is the Government successfully addressing them? In particular,
is the draft Climate Change Bill adequate for the task?
12. Our starting point for this inquiry was the 2004-06
Climate Change Programme Review (CCPR), and its culmination in
the revised UK Climate Change Programme (CCP 2006).[1]
By 2004 it had become clear that the package of policies in the
Climate Change Programme, formally launched only four years before,
was significantly off-track to meet the Government's target of
reducing UK carbon emissions by 20% by 2010. The length of time
the Review took was a further sign of difficulties in the policy-making
process. When the Review's conclusions were published in the
revised CCP 2006, this was greeted with criticism for the modest
nature of many of its proposals, and because even with the addition
of new policies the UK was still projected to fall short of the
original 20% target.
13. Following publication of the revised Climate
Change Programme, we took written evidence, and held evidence
sessions in July 2006, on the process and outcomes of the Review.
At the time we decided simply to publish this evidence,[2]
because we wanted not just to pass judgement on something which
was already in the past, but to focus on the lessons which could
be learned for the future.
14. We asked the National Audit Office (NAO) to examine
aspects of the way in which the CCPR was carried out. This resulted
in two reports—Emissions Projections in the 2006 Climate
Change Programme Review (December 2006) and Cost-effectiveness
Analysis in the 2006 Climate Change Programme Review (January
2007)—both published on the NAO's website. Having received
these reports, we launched an appeal for evidence in January 2007,
holding evidence sessions in April and May. We also took the opportunity
to ask further questions of the Secretary of State for Environment,
and the Government's Chief Scientific Advisor, in June 2007.
15. In March 2007, the Government published and opened
public consultation on a draft Climate Change Bill. This contains
provisions which would have a significant impact on the Government's
climate change policy-making processes. The Bill would put the
UK's post-2010 carbon reduction targets into statute, define pathways
towards these targets by setting successive five-year carbon budgets,
make annual reporting to Parliament of progress towards these
targets mandatory, and create an independent Committee on Climate
Change to provide advice to and oversight of Government policy.
While publication of the draft Bill came too late for it to be
commented on in much of the written evidence we received, we examined
its proposals closely during evidence hearings, and set out our
views on them in this report.
1 HM Government, Climate Change- The UK Programme
2006, Cm 6764, March 2006 Back
2
Environmental Audit Committee, Oral and Written Evidence, Climate
Change - the UK Programme 2006, HC 1452 Back
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