Memorandum submitted by the Strategic
Aviation Special Interest Group of the Local Government Association
INTRODUCTION
1. SASIG has a mandate from its national
membership of 60 local authorities to promote sustainability in
the development of aviation in the UK.
2. SASIG has an interest in the second question
identified by the Committee, particularly the third bullet which
reads:
— Whether or not future domestic targets
and forecasts should include international aviation and shipping?
3. The SASIG answer is YES.
JUSTIFICATION
4. In 2003 the Government published a White
Paper known as "The Future of Air Transport". It predicted
that the number of passengers at all UK airports would grow from
around 180 million passengers per annum in 1998 to between 400
and 600 by 2030. By 2005 there were 228 million passengers, with
the percentage rate of growth in six out of the last eight years
exceeding the forecasts.
5. In December 2006 the Department for Transport
published a Progress Report on the Air Transport White Paper.
It summarises the White Paper as having rejected a "predict
and provide" approach in favour of one in which aviation
pays its environmental costs whilst at the same time bringing
real economic and social benefits to people and the UK. The general
message from the Government was that much has been achieved, the
passenger forecasts to 2030 are robust and almost everything is
going well.
6. On that basis there must be every expectation
that passenger numbers will more than double by 2030.
7. Aviation is a rapidly growing sector
and its contribution to climate change has been predicted to grow[37]
despite any fuel efficiencies gained from improved engine technology.
It is equally a difficult sector to control. In effect it is not
controlled, and the number of passengers and the number of aircraft
movements has grown annually by about 5% to meet passenger demand.
This may not be wrong or bad, it is merely a statement of fact.
8. There are no Government policies in the
Aviation White Paper that promise to limit that growth in the
number of passengers. Again this may not be wrong or bad, it is
merely a statement of fact.
9. At the same time as encouraging growth
because it is said to have huge economic benefits, the Government
has identified many initiatives in the Progress Report that are
claimed to help limit the environmental, particularly the emissions,
effects of aviation. Three initiatives in particular—but
there are several others—illustrate the lack of real, meaningful
progress:
— Inclusion of aviation in the EU
emissions trading scheme (ETS). Whilst this is welcome in
theory it is not likely to have been implemented until 2011 at
the earliest and at present there is no promise that the levels
set can be treated as "targets" that will reduce over
time and reduce fuel consumption below today's levels.
— Doubling Air Passenger Duty.
This is claimed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer to reduce demand
and hence reduce carbon emissions. But that claim is likely to
have been made by modelling its impacts on passenger forecasts.
The model is sensitive to price and will have shown a slightly
lower growth rate but the real question is "Is the passenger
sensitive to a small rise in the overall cost of that journey?"
The Chancellor claimed that 70% of passengers would only pay an
extra £5. Common sense suggests that those passengers may
merely grumble and fly.
— Welcome the aviation industry's
"Sustainable Aviation" initiative. The industry
deserves credit for achieving a consensus on a range of initiatives
and for publishing its own Progress Report at the end of last
year. The real problem is that the targets set for emissions are
not quantified in a way that will guarantee to drive down total
emissions. One of the main commitments in "Sustainable Aviation"
is for a 50% improvement in fuel efficiency per seat kilometre
and an 80% reduction in NOx emissions for new aircraft in 2020
relative to 2000. These may be stretching targets but even if
every new aircraft that rolls off the production line in 2020
achieves those targets, all aircraft produced earlier will still
be flying in 2040 or 2050. By that time anyway, there could be
so many more passenger kilometres being flown that the total emissions
can only exceed the current level. That is why the IPCC has forecast
a growth in emissions. Another commitment is to ensure common
reporting of CO2 emissions and fleet fuel efficiency.
Again, a good scheme but just collecting this information does
not ensure a reduction of CO2 emissions and fuel use.
10. The problem with all these initiatives
is that there are no targets to aim for. In addition to targets
being set, effective incentives for compliance are essential.
SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS
11. EU Emissions Trading Scheme.
There must be a clear message sent to Ministers (and to the Civil
Servants who are at the negotiating table) that the arrangements
should ensure that emissions are actually reduced, not that carbon
permits are easily bought so that emissions stay constant. The
challenge to the industry must be to continue to grow to satisfy
consumer demand but, at the same time, to introduce rapidly more
fuel-efficient aircraft and better technologies.
12. APD. There must be an assurance
that the increase in APD is allocated for environmental mitigation.
One way would be to establish an arms-length organisation to allocate
all or some of the funds in a similar manner to the way the Aggregates
Levy and the Landfill Tax are spent. The public hate the adverse
effects of minerals production and landfill sites yet need these
services. In the same way the public hate the adverse effects
of the aviation industry, yet we are all flying more and more.
An Aviation Environment Fund to allocate the increased APD for
mitigation and research could help solve some of the problems.
13. Aircraft Efficiency. The industry
needs to be encouraged to set targets for fuel use, which are
annually lower than the current level of use and they need to
be required to report on their success or failure, with effective
penalties for non-compliance.
CONCLUSION
14. Targets need to be tough; they need
to be realistic; and they need to carry a penalty for failure.
Note: The Strategic Aviation Special Interest
Group of the Local Government Association is a group of 60 local
authorities from across England with an interest in the strategic
planning of aviation provision in the UK. It is a forum for authorities
to share views and solutions, to provide responses to important
consultation reports and to advise the Local Government Association
(LGA) and Central Government.
March 2007
37 The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
has estimated that aviation accounted for 3.5% of man's contribution
to global warming in 1992 and that aviation emissions could grow
to 4-15% by 2050. Back
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