APPENDIX 9
Memorandum submitted by the Met Office[5]
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. The Met Office Hadley Centre has a world
leading reputation for its climate research and prediction studies.
This has recently been confirmed in an independent review commissioned
by Defra and MOD.[6]
The work of the Met Office Hadley Centre has allowed the UK Government—through
Defra—to play a leading role in gaining global acceptance
of anthropogenic climate change and developing mitigation and
adaptation strategies. The major contribution made by the Met
Office Hadley Centre both to the recent Stern Review and the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, are two
recent examples of just how vital and high-profile its climate
prediction work now is. This memorandum highlights the Met Office
Hadley Centre's key role in climate science and the co-ordination
and translation of that science into policy advice, in order to
ensure that government is best able to respond to the challenge
of climate change. It also highlights the importance of further
advances in our understanding of the underpinning science on a
regional scale to improve the relevance and utility of climate
research for those responding to climate change.
POLICY FOCUSSED
SCIENCE
2. The UK leads the way in a science based
approach to dealing with climate change. It is at the forefront
of international negotiations on mitigation and adaptation, and
in providing climate change information in the UK for adaptation
through the UK Climate Impacts Programme. For this science based
approach to be effective it requires strong coordination between
Departments and the science community both to communicate emerging
requirements and to ensure that science is directed towards policy.
The use of inappropriate or out dated scientific advice could
lead to poor investment decisions[7]
or ineffective policy.
3. Much of the underpinning science carried
out in the academic community feeds through the Met Office Hadley
Centre to policy relevant science—the Met Office Hadley
Centre acts as a hub for policy focussed science. Indeed an independent
review of the Hadley Centre (commissioned by Defra and MoD) recently
concluded, amongst other things, that: It is beyond dispute that
the Met Office Hadley Centre occupies a position at the pinnacle
of world climate science and in translating that science into
policy advice.
4. The UK government currently invests just
under £20 million pa in climate research at the Met Office
Hadley Centre through Defra and MoD. This is underpinned by significant
investment in model development at the Met Office by the Public
Weather Service through MOD to improve weather forecasts. Exploitation
of the synergies between operational weather forecasting and climate
predictions strongly benefits both activities and maximises value
for money. The recent merger of two separate research programmes
into a joint MOD and Defra Climate Prediction Programme at the
Met Office is an excellent example of a coordinated approach to
climate change that will further strengthen the quality of advice
provided to government on the underpinning science. This joint
programme provides a framework by which the two departments can
coordinate their interests while the Met Office builds on the
excellent fundamental science carried out in the UK research community
and translates this into policy relevant advice.
REDUCING UNCERTAINTY
IN REGIONAL
CLIMATE PREDICTIONS
5. The Stern review identified that adaptation
policy is crucial for dealing with the unavoidable impacts of
climate Change. Adaptation is the only response available for
the impacts that will occur over the next several decades before
mitigation measures can have an effect. Improved regional climate
predictions will be critical, particularly for rainfall and storm
patterns, to assist in the development of a policy framework to
guide effective adaptation by individuals and firms in the medium
and longer term.
6. Fundamental research is still required
to underpin improved regional predictions, concurrent with a directed
programme that pulls together effort from across the UK research
community towards specific regional needs of the UK. The key element
here is not simply to join up existing work but to put in place
a programme that focuses relevant parts of UK climate research
towards the goal of reducing uncertainty in regional climate predictions.
Further research to refine our understanding of the regional impact
of climate change will improve the relevance and utility of climate
research for those responding to climate change, which is important
given that the cost of adaptation and mitigation activities could
be in the order of 1% of GDP.
May 2007
5 The Met Office is an executive agency of MOD. Back
6
An independent review of the Met Office Hadley Centre from
Risk Solutions commissioned by Defra and MoD was published by
Defra on 15 May and is available on the Defra website: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/research/ Back
7
For example the cost of the new Thames Barrier has been estimated
at £25 billion. Improved climate predictions leading to a
1% reduction in costs of the Thames Barrier would save £250
million on this alone. Back
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