9 International aviation and shipping
122. According to the Aviation Environment Federation
(AEF), aviation is the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas
emissions in the UK. Recent predictions by the Oxford Environmental
Change Institute using data from the Department for Transport
suggest that by 2050 aviation will be responsible for around 27%
of the UK's total allowance in the event of a 60% cut in emissions.[143]
123. The targets in the draft Bill exclude emissions
from international aviation and shipping. However provision is
made within the Bill for inclusion at a later date "if there
is a change in international carbon reporting practice relating
to aviation or shipping" [Clause 15, subsection 3] It is
currently hoped to include emissions from flights within the EU
as part of the EU Emission Trading Scheme by 2011, although the
AEF suggests that, as a consequence of the need to first resolve
"methodological and highly sensitive political issues",
this may be somewhat ambitious.[144]
124. Much of the evidence we received called for
inclusion of the UK's emissions from international aviation and
shipping within the Bill from the outset. The Natural Environment
Research Council describes the exclusion of international aviation
and shipping as being "of particular concern",[145]
while Friends of the Earth argues that the inclusion of emissions
from aviation and shipping was implicit in the 60% target originally
recommended by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution.[146]
The Aviation Environment Federation points out that the UK already
submits information on emissions from international bunker fuels
to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
as part of its annual greenhouse gas emissions inventory. It argues
that special provision for aviation and shipping could be made
at the outset, with flexibility to alter those provisions should
international policy change.[147]
Professor Grubb noted that "the Committee [on Climate Change]
has to consider any contribution that is making the climate change
problem worse, which would obviously include international bunker
fuels. […] Irrespective of how the carbon budget is defined,
the Committee surely should be allowed to comment on the state
of international aviation and marine transport."[148]
125. Friends of the Earth argues that:
There is sense to having a clause in the Bill which
says that when an international agreement is reached which allocates
those aviation emissions to countries in a particular way that
the Bill is amended so that we use the internationally agreed
way of doing it consistent with other countries. At the moment
there is no such international agreement and there is not really
very much prospect of one arising any time particularly soon.
[…] It is something of a myth to say that we cannot allocate
these emissions from aviation and shipping to the UK carbon account,
as it is called in the Bill, because we already do it. […]
seeing we have the methodology and the thing is there, we should
start using that right from day one in order to include carbon
dioxide in this account and if that needs to be adjusted at some
point in the future you can guarantee that there will be a smaller
adjustment to our accounts than if we simply ignore it.
The reason for including it in the Bill is not simply
because we should control those emissions, it is because without
counting them it is a bit like being on a diet where you count
your calories but you decide not to count calories from chocolate.
It just will not work. [149]
126. In addition, the Tyndall Centre suggested that
UK emissions from international aviation and shipping could have
a substantial impact on the UK's total 'carbon account':
if you tot up the aviation and shipping additional
emissions and include those within the domestic emissions budget,
you get a new total UK cumulative carbon budget over a 50-year
period between 2000 and 2050 of between 7 to 7.5 billion tonnes
of carbon.[150] If
the same apportionment regime is used that the Government used
in order originally to come up with its 60 per cent target, this
would equate to something closer to a 600 to 750 parts per million
CO2 rather than the 550ppm that the Government originally
started from. […] this is a 92 to 100 per cent chance of
exceeding 2°C or a 50 per cent chance of exceeding four degrees.
[…] a 450ppm CO2 alone would give us a 30 per
cent chance of not exceeding [the 2°C threshold], still not
a huge chance, but would give us a reasonable chance and we have
calculated that this correlates with a UK carbon budget of around
4.8 billion tonnes of carbon[151]
for the period 2000 to 2050.[152]
127. The Office of Climate Change explains why the
UK's share of emissions from international aviation and shipping
have not been included: "The reason it is not included is
simply because there is no internationally agreed basis for allocating
responsibility for emissions from international aviation and shipping
and therefore the Government took the view that it was irrational
for the UK to take on that legal responsibility unilaterally,
as it were. It does not mean that we do not report on our international
aviation and shipping emissions but to take legal responsibility
for them ahead of an international agreement would seem odd."[153]
128. As the years pass it will become increasingly
artificial not to take account of the UK's share of emissions
from international aviation and shipping, as indicated by the
Government's Aviation White Paper. The Government argues that
there is not yet any internationally agreed basis for allocating
responsibility for emissions from international aviation and shipping.
But these emissions are already reported to the UN as a 'memo
item'. This suggests that some basis for reporting has in fact
been agreed. The inclusion
of the UK's share of emissions from international aviation and
shipping will have significant implications for the validity of
the 2050 target. We recommend that the Committee on Climate Change
should be required to report on the UK's emissions from international
aviation and shipping, whether or not they are counted as part
of the statutory target, in order more accurately to inform its
recommendations regarding budgets and targets which will affect
all other sectors of the economy. Pursuant to this, the Government
must make every effort to achieve international agreement as soon
as possible on allocation mechanisms so that the powers provided
for in Clause 15 (3) can be exercised. We further recommend that
once international agreement is reached, the Committee on Climate
Change should include the UK's share of emissions from international
aviation and shipping in its recommendations for the targets.
143 University of Oxford, Environmental Change Institute,
Predict and decide: Aviation, climate change and UK policy,
September 2006 Back
144
Ev 137-138 Back
145
Ev 193 Back
146
Ev 25 Back
147
Ev 138 Back
148
Qq 201-202 Back
149
Qq 117-118 Back
150
This is equivalent to between 25.6 and 27.5 GtCO2;
figures have been converted into CO2 by multiplying
by 44/12. Back
151
This is equivalent to 17.6 GtCO2; figures have been
converted into CO2 by multiplying by 44/12. Back
152
Q 14 Back
153
Q 422 Back
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