Memorandum submitted by Richard Shirres
(CCB 01)
What does sustainability imply?
What is a sustainable level of Global Impact
and, on a more personal level, what is the required level of
reduction in pollution per unit of consumption?
Total Global Environmental Impact (I)
from consumption by the World's population can be expressed:
I = P . A
. T
| where: | P = World Population
|
| A = Average level of consumption ie Affluence
|
| T = Environmental impact per (average) unit of consumption,
|
| ie a measure of how efficiently economy uses natural resources and produces waste
|
The above formula can be used to indicate an order of magnitude
of improvement needed for the next half century.
Sustainability
The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
suggested we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by around
50% at least by 2050 for the expectation of stabilising global
warming effects by the 22nd century. The effects of global warming
are very long term.
It is clearly very difficult to estimate global environmental
impact (waste) produced due to our technological civilisation.
However, it is reasonable to consider that a positive correlation
exists between current production and associated greenhouse gases
production. Therefore, consistent with IPCC, let us assume that
Global Impact (I) has to be halved by 2050
to achieve sustainable consumption, ie Iyr2050 =
0.5 X Iyr2000
Required Reduction in Impact for an Average Unit of Consumption
World Population is forecast to increase over the next 50
years from 6 billion to, at least, 9 billion, ie Pyr2050
= 1.5 X Pyr2000
Let us assume that the world economy continues to grow on
average by 2.5% per annum over the next 50 years. This
implies more than a tripling of consumption per average person,
ie Ayr2050/Ayr2000 = 1.025 50,
approx = 3.5. That is: Ayr2050 = 3.5
X Ayr2000
Thus, starting with:
Iyr2050 = Pyr2050 X Ayr2050
X Tyr2050
What is the required ratio of Tyr2050/Tyr2000
for the equation to balance?
0.5 = 1.5 X 3.5 X (Tyr2050/Tyr2000)
The Answer
Globally, the average per capita unit of consumption
for the year 2050, in order just to maintain the status quo
globally will need to be somewhere around a 10th of present
day levels. By way of examples what could this mean for people
in developed countries who already consume way above the average,
say twice, per capita unit of consumption?
Can you imagine having a car that does 800 miles to the gallon?
Could you—everyone—make do with a wheelie bin
less than one 20th its current size?
Sustainability requires a paradigm shift: a radical change
in thinking.
Richard Shirres
April 2007
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