Implications of any shortfall
44. The Sustainable Policing submission surveyed
Chief Constables from 17 forces as to the impact of a funding
shortfall on the service. Respondents agreed that:
the potential funding gap will have an adverse
impact on both police numbers (mentioned by 82% of responding
forces) and police staff numbers (77% with 41% specifically mentioning
PCSOs). Four of the 17 forces are already in a position to quantify
the potential impact, referring to police officer cuts averaging
73.75; two specifically mention police staff numbers averaging
29.5.[61]
45. Police representatives agreed that any shortfall
would impact on staff. Mr Jones of APA told us:
clearly if we do not have sufficient resources
we are in a dilemma in terms of where the savings have to come
from, given that 80% is staff related … clearly it is very
difficult to make reductions of this size without looking at the
position of the police officers.[62]
When asked to quantify these observations, Mr Jones
said "it is difficult to calculate, depending on how you
actually choose that mix but clearly you could be talking about
a move [from the current number of 141,000 police officers] down
to 135,000-136,000".[63]
Mr Jones emphasised that this projected figure of about 5,000
police officer job cuts would be "an absolute worst case
scenario and clearly all police authorities will be committed
to avoiding that".[64]
46. On 16 November 2006 the Minister instigated a
review of police pay, to be undertaken by the former civil servant
Sir Clive Booth. The review was in two stages, the first of which
reported in February 2007, and the second of which is due to report
later this year. The terms of reference of the two parts were:
1) to consider the options for replacing the current arrangements
for determining changes to police officer pay for 2007; and 2)
to review the effectiveness of the negotiating machinery for the
police, and make recommendations for how police pay and other
conditions of service should be determined.[65]
47. ACPO told us that "successfully constraining
budget increases to the lower level of funding expected under
CSR07 will depend almost entirely on restraining pay".[66]
However, they also warned of the dangers of reducing pay for staff
recruitment and retention.[67]
Ms Berry of the Police Federation claimed that there is a good
deal of unrest within the police service about the possible outcomes
of the Booth pay review:
Police officers are feeling extremely frustrated
at the way that they see they are bring treated at the moment
in the terms of their pay and conditions. The conditions that
are placed on them to be on duty 24/7 … that they are personally
responsible for their actions both on and off duty … and
the fact that at this stage they do not have the right to take
industrial action.[68]
48. Ms Berry added that the Booth review "seeks
to remove any negotiation from police officers; it seeks to suppress
police pay over a period of time".[69]
She denied press reports that she had said that changes to the
basis on which police pay is negotiated could result in industrial
action. She informed us that her actual comments, at the Police
Federation Annual Conference, had been "I believe it would
be a tragedy for policing if police officers were ever forced
to go on strike … it's the last thing police officers want
… but push them any further, and the last thing they want
might just become their only option".[70]
49. The Minister, Mr McNulty, recognised that any
shortfall would impact on police officer numbers. He said that
"I do accept the basic premise that, if there is a decline,
then there is not a whole lot that can happen without bodies being
involved in the end". However, he argued that staff cuts
were not inevitable.[71]
The Minister told us that, although "this year's round of
negotiations in terms of pay will be very, very delicate and very,
very interesting", police pay "must figure in the equation"[72]
of the CSR settlement.
Conclusions: A funding shortfall?
50. There is agreement that the Comprehensive
Spending Review financial settlement will be tight for the police
service. Our police witnesses and the Government were in agreement
that the settlement will, at the least, see a lower rate of increase
in the investment the police have enjoyed over the last few years.
The precise scale of the settlement, and of any related shortfall,
remains unclear.
51. We recommend that when the results of the
Comprehensive Spending Review are announced later this year, the
Government should publish at the same time the full assumptions
which underpin the police funding settlement.
52. We note that the Government retains the power
to place capping limits on council tax increases, and we acknowledge
that the issue of capping is looked at on a case by case basis.
However, we recommend that the Government should look again at
the specific question of whether it is appropriate for police
precept to remain effectively capped at 5% in line with other
local authority budget increase limits.
53. We share the concern expressed by the Minister
about the considerable disparities in the amount of police precept
raised by different forces. This is a matter of significance,
particularly where the disparity cannot be adequately explained
by locally made decisions as to the level of service provided
by the police. It is far harder to justify local autonomy and
delegation when not everyone begins at the same starting point.
We recommend that the Government should commission research into
the reasons behind the variations and what might be done to reduce
disparity between forces.
54. Police pay settlements over the CSR period
will probably be tight. We have seen no short-term evidence of
recruitment and retention problems in the police service. Indeed,
recruitment of both police officers and civilian staff has been
boosted in correlation with the increased resources allocated
to police. However, this issue should be kept under review to
guard against the possibility of problems developing in the longer
term.
42 Sustainable Policing-an overview of the APA/ACPO
approach to the Comprehensive Spending Review 2007 (November
2006), p 3 Back
43
Sustainable Policing: the case for resourcing the police service
2008-09 to 2010-11 (November 2006), p 32 Back
44
The projected shortfall takes into account the 3% uniformed pay
settlement made in September 2006 and is based on inflation at
3% and net growth pressures at 2%. Back
45
Adapted from Sustainable Policing: the case for resourcing
the police service 2008-09 to 2010-11 (November 2006), p 34 Back
46
Ibid., p 15 Back
47
Ev 44 Back
48
Ev 51 Back
49
Q 56 Back
50
Q 58 Back
51
Q 61 Back
52
Q 58 Back
53
Ev 51 Back
54
Ibid. Back
55
Ibid. Back
56
Q 13 Back
57
Department for Communities and Local Government A guide to
the Local Government Finance Settlement p 11 Back
58
Q 55 Back
59
Q 55 Back
60
Q 54 Back
61
Sustainable Policing: the case for resourcing the police service
2008-09 to 2010-11 (November 2006), p 30 Back
62
Q 14 Back
63
Q 15 Back
64
Q 18 Back
65
www.policepayreview.org Back
66
Ev 30 Back
67
Ev 30 Back
68
Q 25 Back
69
Q 25 Back
70
Jan Berry, Chair of the Police Federation: Speech to the Police
Federation Annual Conference, May 2007 Back
71
Q 60 Back
72
Q 99 Back
