Annex 1
WORKFORCE PLANNING
MODELLING STRATEGIES
How to model:
Estimating the need for training capacity can
be done in a number of ways:
1. Project medical workforce supply
and demand. This approach attempts to identify the drivers
of healthcare demand and assess how these factors will change
over time. The long time frames involved in medical workforce
modelling can inevitably mean the output of the analysis becomes
very sensitive to a few key assumptions. This is the approach
we have used in our analysis.
2. Comparative bench marks. This
approach compares projected supply with other areas that are assumed
to have the "right" number of doctors. There are always
value judgements to be made when choosing the comparator system,
and often are difficult as like is not being compared with like.
3. Equalising up. This approach
assumes that the average number of doctors in a system (per population,
area etc) represents the "right" number and "demand"
equals the number of doctors required to bring all areas up to
the current average level. This method ignores the fact that inequality
of provision will not be remedied by simply increasing supply.
What to model:
(i) Specialist demand only
Previous modelling of medical workforce demand
in the NHS has focused on modelling demand for trained consultants
and GPs. Demand for junior doctors was considered only as an input
in the supply of consultants or GPs. This method is simple and
focuses on the key out put of medical training. However, it ignores
the service provided by non-consultant career grades and training
grades.
(ii) All medical staff
Alternatively, model demand for "all trained
NHS doctors" as a single homogenous group. This approach
assumes that projected growth in activity would lead to growth
in demand for all types of doctors.
(iii) Grade specific demand modelling
A third approach is to model demand separately
for fully trained and junior level doctors.
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