Annex 3
Trends in NHS expenditure
The projected growth in NHS expenditure could
be estimate in two ways:
— By looking at long term trends in
real (ie inflation adjusted) growth in expenditure; or
— By looking at growth in the whole
UK economy. We would expect health expenditure to grow at about
the same rate or slightly faster than the rate of growth of the
economy (implying health expenditure takes a constant or slightly
increasing share of GDP).
Trends in NHS expenditure have been higher than
the long term trend economic growth implying that health takes
up an increasing proportion of GDP spend.
Table
Period
| Real p/a %
growth rate |
Comment
|
1971-72 to 2007-08 | 4.1%
| Longest period available |
| 1971-72 to 1999-2000 | 3.2%
| Long term trend before recent "catch-up" increases
|
| 1999-2000 to 2007-08 | 7.6%
| Average growth during recent period |
| 1975-76 to 1999-2000 | 2.6%
| Lowest long term period of growth |
| Long term trend in GDP growth2.75%
| |
| | |
| 
