Evidence submitted by London Deanery (WP
93)
I have been asked to clarify a number of points
in my evidence given to the Select Committee on 29 June 2006.
1. MEDICAL SCHOOL
NUMBERS
The review I mentioned in my evidence was the,
Medical Workforce. Numbers Stakeholder Event, organised by the
DH to "road-test" the workforce analysis on medical
student numbers. I have enclosed the notes of that meeting with
the permission of the Chair. The notes do not represent DH policy,
although they may contribute to informing policy.
2. MMC IMPACT
I carried out an analysis of the cost and likely
impact of implementing MMC on consultant workload in London. I
have enclosed this also.
3. SPECIALIST
TRAINING NUMBERS
1. In September 2005 the census showed there
were 21,000 doctors in SHO level posts.
2. By September 2006, 5,000 of these posts
will have been reconfigured into F2 posts (the equivalent of the
current first SHO year), leaving 16,000 SHO level posts. (The
individuals will of course have moved on by a year, a junior cohort
of around 5,000 moving into the F2 posts as a similar sized senior
cohort move out to SpR or GPR posts.)
3. By September 2007, most of the 16,000
SHO posts will have been reconfigured into run-through training
posts, in each of years ST1, ST2 and ST3. The rest will be reconfigured
as Fixed Term Specialist Training Appointments (FTSTAs.) If, for
example, 5,000 posts went into ST1, 5,000 into ST2, 3,000 into
ST3, and 3,000 into FTSTAs that would accommodate all the posts—and
all the doctors (who will all by now have moved up a year, as
before).
4. How realistic is it to expect all 21,000
SHO-level posts to be retained? The NHS is in financial difficulties,
and cutting staff is one solution. However, most Trusts have an
eye to the challenges presented by WTD 2009, and seem not to be
minded to reduce a relatively inexpensive source of medical service.
The specialty balance of these posts will certainly have to change,
but it is less likely that the stock of posts will fall dramatically,
unless the educational funding that supports the majority is cut.
5. The problem will be in the specialty
balance, where the aspirations of trainees do not match the needs
of the service, and where there will be disappointed, if not necessarily
unemployed, trainees at every level. But that is not a new phenomenon.
Elisabeth Paice
Dean Director, London Deanery
28 July 2006
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