Memorandum by Dr Alan Smith
SUMMARY
1. BACKGROUND
Forced displacement is common in Myanmar/Burma,
related to armed conflict associated with insurgency and counter-insurgency
and in other areas related to infrastructure and economic developments
which require access to land. This does not happen only in ethnic
areas, and is not restricted to rural areas, but it is of greatest
extent and significance in ethnic rural areas.
2. THE PARTICULAR
NEEDS OF
IDPS IN
MYANMAR/BURMA
Responses to the particular needs of IDPs in
Burma/Myanmar should reflect the UN Guiding Principles which focus
on protection, health and livelihood and education needs.
3. THE CHALLENGES
FACED IN
DELIVERING AID
AND ASSISTANCE
TO IDPS
The most significant challenge is how to provide
protection against displacement and continuing protection from
abuse after displacement has occurred.
There is a lack of easily accessible health
treatment centres (either because too remote or too expensive)
and lack of health education and awareness. Livelihood issues
are the most difficult to address and, on the one hand there are
clearly situations where newly displaced people are desperately
in need of food assistance, on the other hand, there is community
consensus that it is security against economic abuse, which is
the key to economic security.
The most serious challenge regarding education
is lack of access, sometimes due to remoteness of the nearest
school, but most often it is economic reasons. Community organisations
therefore focus on expanding access, though there is awareness
also of the need to improve the quality of education available
by providing better school materials and teacher training.
4. HOW DONORS
CAN ASSIST
IDPS IN
MYANMAR/BURMA
MOST EFFECTIVELY?
It is faith-based organisations and ethnic organisations
in Myanmar that are the most actively engaged in providing assistance
to communities affected by displacement, armed-conflict-related
and otherwise. Donors can best assist IDPs in Myanmar/Burma by
supporting and strengthening the work of community-based organisations,
either directly or in collaboration with international organisations
which work in cooperation with community-based organisations.
Donors can also actively engage in the search for more effective
forms of advocacy on behalf of the displaced, for ending displacement
and other forms of abuse, and for expanding humanitarian access
to armed conflict-affected areas both from inside the country
and across the border. Donors can also support efforts by communities
and community organisations inside Myanmar/Burma to articulate
needs as they see them, rather than to be spoken for by exiles
and political organisations outside the country.
5. THE ADVANTAGES
AND DISADVANTAGES
OF CROSS-BORDER
ASSISTANCE COMPARED
TO OTHER
WAYS OF
ASSISTING IDPS
IN MYANMAR/BURMA
The main advantage of cross-border assistance
is that it can access IDPs who have been displaced from armed
conflict situations and who have fled towards the border or into
hiding in mountainous and forested areas not accessible from inside
the country. The main disadvantage of this mode of providing assistance
is that it is identified by the Myanmar authorities with "supporting
and legitimising" insurgency.
Despite the disadvantages, it is still the case
that this form of assistance is the only way that assistance can
be provided to certain groups displaced by armed conflict. However,
if it extends into Government-controlled areas, the risks to both
assistance personnel and recipients are greater, because it is
seen as partisan.
The main advantage of assistance provided by
community organisations inside the country is that it can be undertaken
by community organisations that are recognised by the authorities
as having a legitimate role to play in these communities. They
are organisations which, as an integral part of the affected communities,
will provide assistance of a kind which is designed to activate
and complement the affected community's own "coping mechanism",
not generate a dependency syndrome.
The main disadvantage of this form of assistance
is that it has a limited potential to reach those directly affected
by armed conflict, especially those who have been displaced to
the east towards the Thailand border, due to restrictions on access
maintained by the Myanmar/Burma authorities.
6. THE IMPACT
OF DFID'S
POLICIES TOWARDS
MYANMAR/BURMA'S
IDPS
DFID support has made possible UN support for
community based organisations inside Myanmar to explore and expand
a wide range of activities focussed on displacement. This has
included collection of data by community organisations, training
of community organisation staff with regard to collection and
analysis of data, regular information sharing meetings, collective
prioritisation of needs and the implementation of assistance and
development projects by community organisations in communities
affected by conflict and displacement.
7. HOW DIFFERENT
ETHNIC GROUPS
ARE AFFECTED
BY DISPLACEMENT
Since the focus of the inquiry is specifically
displacement in the eastern border area (although forced displacement
occurs in other areas of Burma also), it is possible to say that
the eastern border areas affected are ethnic minority areas, and
that it is therefore ethnic minorities that are most affected.
Some of the ethnic minorities include substantial Christian communities.
However, again it is necessary to emphasise that although Christian
ethnic minority communities are often the victims of forcible
displacement, this is so because they are the communities in proximity
to insurgency and counter-insurgency, not because they are Christian
per se.
8. THE LIKELY
TRENDS IN
THE REGION
IN TERMS
OF DISPLACEMENT,
AND DEVELOPMENT
AND HUMANITARIAN
NEEDS
There is a downward trend in armed conflict
in Myanmar/Burma, but there is no reason to believe that there
will be any rapid resolution of the conflict between the government
and those armed groups that have not yet made ceasefires. Displacement
directly due to armed conflict is likely to continue to occur
in local "episodes', and is not expected to escalate or to
become widespread. There is also no prospect of a demilitarisation
of the eastern border areas and with very large numbers of government
troops "in occupation" and large numbers of weapons
in the community, a high level of abusive behaviour towards the
local population by those holding arms is likely to continue.
Displacement is likely to increase throughout
the border area in association with government-initiated development
and commercial development in association with locally powerful
(meaning armed) groups. This is an area where a comprehensive
peace settlement and political reconstruction is sorely needed.
Without a comprehensive peace, local populations are likely to
be severely handicapped in a race for economic opportunities open
to all with resulting marginalisation.
1. BACKGROUND
PERSPECTIVE: INTERNAL
DISPLACEMENT IN
MYANMAR/BURMA
1.1 The abuse of the rights of civilians in
areas of armed conflict in Myanmar/Burma, mainly ethnic areas,
including forced relocation, has been well-documented. Clearly
there is a need for protection of the civilian population of areas
caught up in armed conflict, protection from arbitrary displacement,
protection after displacement where the conflict has made displacement
unavoidable, and for assistance during displacement and eventual
reintegration into the community.
1.2 The International Committee of the Red Cross
(ICRC), which is charged with responsibility for the protection
of civilian populations in situations of conflict under the Geneva
Conventions to which Myanmar/Burma is signatory, has enjoyed some
access to conflict areas in Myanmar/Burma until recently for this
purpose, but has recently been denied access.
1.3 Other international organizations including
the UN have repeatedly sought access to displaced or vulnerable
populations in conflict areas for the purpose of independently
assessing the humanitarian situation, with little success to date.
The Myanmar/Burma authorities currently provide no assistance
to those displaced by armed conflict other than on some occasions
to indicate a preferred area of relocation.
1.4 In the absence of cooperation from the Myanmar/Burma
government and armed forces, the burden of responsibility for
providing assistance to the displaced within Myanmar/Burma has
fallen on communities themselves and community organisations working
within them.
1.5 For those displaced from areas of armed
conflict close to the border of Thailand, the burden of responsibility
for providing assistance to the displaced has fallen on relief
operations from outside the country operating across the border
from Thailand.
1.6 For those displaced in situations other
than armed conflict, responsibility for assistance also currently
must be accepted solely by communities themselves and community
organisations working within them.
1.7 Displacement in situations other than armed
conflict, normally occurs in areas that are securely under the
control of the Myanmar/Burma authorities and are unlikely to be
accessible to relief operations from across the border.
1.8 Forced displacement without appropriate
compensation occurs in post-conflict situations where land is
required for military infrastructure and where the surrounding
land is required to make military bases self-supporting.
1.9 Forced displacement without appropriate
compensation also occurs everywhere in the country, where in the
interests of national development, the authorities seek to create
or expand infrastructure. Undoubtedly this is necessary and frequently,
if not always, an advantage to the local population as well as
the authorities. However, civilian populations are usually called
on to provide labour and/or materials, all too often without fair
or even any payment.
1.10 Forced displacement without appropriate
compensation appears also to occur from land that is required
for the establishment of commercial plantations and other economic
enterprises. This does not happen only in ethnic areas, and is
not restricted to rural areas, but it is of greatest extent and
significance in ethnic areas where development projects are fostered
by the military as part of its occupation of previous conflict
areas
2. THE PARTICULAR
NEEDS OF
IDPS IN
MYANMAR/BURMA
2.1 Guiding Principles
2.1.1 In addressing the issues framed by this
inquiry, we are guided by the normative framework for the internally
displaced provided by the UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement.
To quote the words of distinguished, one time UN Under-Secretary-General
for Humanitarian Affairs, Mr. Sergio Vieira de Mello,
These Principles, which are based upon existing
international humanitarian law and human rights instruments, are
to serve as an international standard to guide governments as
well as international humanitarian and development agencies in
providing assistance and protection to IDPs.
2.2 Needs
2.2.1 For IDPs, as for refugees, there is a
primary need for safety and, after that, access to what is needed
for everyday survival and on-going life, including access to health
care, education and livelihood.
2.2.2 Protection
According to Principle 6, safety begins with
protection against arbitrary displacement:
Every human being shall have the right to be
protected against being arbitrarily displaced from his or her
home or place of habitual residence.
According to Principle 7:
1. Prior to any decision requiring the displacement
of persons, the authorities concerned shall ensure that all feasible
alternatives are explored in order to avoid displacement altogether.
Where no alternatives exist, all measures shall be taken to minimize
displacement and its adverse effects.
2. The authorities undertaking such displacement
shall ensure, to the greatest practicable extent, that proper
accommodation is provided to the displaced persons, that such
displacements are effected in satisfactory conditions of safety,
nutrition, health and hygiene, and that members of the same family
are not separated.
3. If displacement occurs in situations other
than during the emergency stages of armed conflicts and disasters,
the following guarantees shall be complied with:
(a) A specific decision shall be taken by
a State authority empowered by law to order such measures.
(b) Adequate measures shall be taken to guarantee
to those to be displaced full information on the reasons and procedures
for their displacement and, where applicable, on compensation
and relocation.
(c) The free and informed consent of those
to be displaced shall be sought.
(d) The authorities concerned shall endeavour
to involve those affected, particularly women, in the planning
and management of their relocation.
(e) Law enforcement measures, where required,
shall be carried out by competent legal authorities; and
(f) The right to an effective remedy, including
the review of such decisions by appropriate judicial authorities,
shall be respected.
2.2.3 Health care and livelihood
According to Principle 18:
At the minimum, regardless of the circumstances,
and without discrimination, competent authorities shall provide
internally displaced persons with and ensure safe access to:
(a) Essential food and potable water;
(b) Basic shelter and housing;
(c) Appropriate clothing; and
(d) Essential medical services and sanitation.
2.2.4 Education
According to principle 23:
the authorities concerned shall ensure that...in
particular displaced children, receive education which shall be
free and compulsory at the primary level. Education should respect
their cultural identity, language and religion.
3. THE CHALLENGES
FACED IN
DELIVERING AID
AND ASSISTANCE
TO IDPS
3.1 Protection
3.1.1 The most significant challenge to be faced
by those concerned for the welfare of communities subject to forcible
displacement is how to provide protection against displacement
and continuing protection from abuse after displacement has occurred.
3.1.2 Humanitarian advocacy aims at protecting
civilians from, or alleviating the impacts of, abuse—and
falls under two broad categories: denunciation and persuasion.
Both have been applied, the former, continuously by organisations
working from outside the country, the latter repeatedly by international
organisations working inside the country, including the UN, when
the opportunity arises. Yet acute protection needs continue.
3.1.3 It is standard practice for international
agencies to prioritize the most urgent humanitarian needs—which,
as in the case of Myanmar/Burma, will often include protection
issues. One of the greatest challenges facing international agencies
in Myanmar/Burma is therefore how to design programmes that achieve
a balance between assistance interventions and protection concerns.
International agencies in Myanmar/Burma have established a "protective
presence" and some studies have indicated that where assistance
access is possible, protection can also often be enhanced. Where
access is denied, as in the case of areas of active armed conflict,
of course, neither assistance or protection can be provided directly
by international agencies. For this reason, it is strategically
essential to expand the humanitarian agenda in Myanmar/Burma in
order to expand the possibilities of both assistance and protection.
3.1.4 Where access is restricted for international
agencies, as is currently the case in Myanmar/Burma, the international
community can and must assist community organisations develop
the capacity and the will to provide a protective presence while
providing assistance.
3.1.5 However, while international agencies
are severely constrained by lack of access, community organisations
are constrained by lack of resources, material resources and trained
human resources.
3.2 Land-mines
3.2.1 All of the communities in the eastern
border area, as well as many other areas throughout Myanmar/Burma,
are affected by the danger of widespread, often unsystematic,
deployment of landmines both by the government's armed forces
and armed opposition groups during times of armed conflict and
in defence of established bases and camps, to deny access to abandoned
settlements and to defend resettlement sites.
3.3 Health care and livelihood
3.3.1 Discussions among community organisations
and with international organisations reveal a widespread consensus
on the health priorities on communities affected by displacement.
Clearly many communities lack easily accessible health treatment
centres (either because too remote or too expensive) and lack
health education and awareness. The significant disease challenges
are malaria and HIV Aids. Community organisations therefore need
resources for health awareness training in local languages, training
to expand the capacity of local health workers, training and equipping
mobile teams, provision of medical supplies and education about
the need for safe water and sanitation as well as resources for
securing access to safe water and sanitation.
3.3.2 Livelihood issues are the most difficult
to address in communities affected by displacement. On the one
hand, there are clearly situations where newly displaced people
are desperately in need of food assistance. On the other hand,
there is community consensus that it is security against economic
abuse, which is the key to economic security, rather than either
emergency assistance or economic development assistance. They
refer to security against "being deprived of land and property
by people in power" and security against being forced to
provide labour for the government and the army with little or
no compensation, plus security against forced and arbitrary taxation
and looting" by armed groups associated with both government
and anti-government groups.
3.4 Education
3.4.1 For communities affected by displacement,
in both armed-conflict areas and others, the most serious challenge
is to provide universal access to basic education. Lack of access
is sometimes due to remoteness of the nearest school, but most
often it is the inability or unwillingness of parents to have
their children attend school because they cannot afford it, or
because the children are needed to assist with the family livelihood.
Community organisations therefore focus on expanding access, though
there is awareness also of the need to improve the quality of
education available by providing better school materials and teacher
training.
4. HOW DONORS
CAN ASSIST
IDPS IN
MYANMAR/BURMA
MOST EFFECTIVELY?
4.1 It is faith-based organisations and ethnic
organisations in ceasefire areas in Myanmar/Burma that are the
most actively engaged in providing assistance to communities affected
by displacement, armed-conflict-related and otherwise.
4.2 Ethnic political organisations are able
to protect their communities against displacement only in areas
they control on the basis of their ceasefire agreement with the
government. They report having attempted, unsuccessfully to advocate
on behalf of communities outside their areas of control affected
by continuing forced displacement and other abuses at the hands
of the authorities, in post-conflict situations.
4.3 Faith-based organisations, while reluctant
to advocate at the national level on behalf of the displaced or
communities affected by displacement, are aware of the "protective
presence" that their traditional "pastoral care"
role affords to the local community, as well as providing the
necessary access to provide material assistance.
4.4 Donors can best assist IDPs in Myanmar/Burma
by supporting and strengthening the work of community-based organisations,
either directly or in collaboration with international organisations
which work in cooperation with community-based organisations.
4.5 Donors can also actively engage in the search,
with international organisations working in Myanmar/Burma and
community organisations, for more effective forms of advocacy
on behalf of the displaced, for ending displacement and other
forms of abuse, and for expanding humanitarian access to armed
conflict-affected areas both from inside the country and across
the border.
4.6 Donors can also support efforts by communities
and community organisations inside Myanmar/Burma to articulate
needs as they see them, rather than to be spoken for by exiles
and political organisations outside the country.
4.7 Donors can also assist IDPs in Myanmar/Burma
by providing resources and training with regard to design and
delivery of effective community health and education programmes.
Most urgently needed is assistance to ethnic political and community
organisations providing school and health systems alongside those
provided by the government of Myanmar/Burma and either explicitly
or tacitly tolerated by the Myanmar/Burma authorities. Examples
are the extensive education and health services provided in ceasefire
areas (with explicit agreement of the authorities but without
access to government resources) by ethnic political organisations
with ceasefire agreements.
4.8 Donors can also assist by providing opportunities
for community organisations active in displacement-affected areas
to be brought into the world of discussion and debate about best
practice with regard to health awareness education, community
health promotion as well as local treatment and referral systems
for dealing with illnesses, student-centred teacher training,
as well as policy debates about appropriate health and education
policies for multi-ethnic countries.
4.9 Donors can assist by supporting landmines-awareness
programmes, by drawing all sides into discussion about the desirability
of banning use of landmines and by attempting to start land-mine
clearance operations where and when appropriate. It is a very
expensive, technically difficult and time-consuming task to clear
land-mines.
5. THE ADVANTAGES
AND DISADVANTAGES
OF CROSS-BORDER
ASSISTANCE COMPARED
TO OTHER
WAYS OF
ASSISTING IDPS
IN MYANMAR/BURMA
5.1 Cross-border assistance
5.1.1 The main advantage of cross-border assistance
is that it can access IDPs who have been displaced from armed
conflict situations and who have fled towards the border or into
hiding in mountainous and forested areas not accessible from inside
the country. Since IDPs in that situation have fled into sparsely
populated areas, they may be in very great need of emergency assistance
while they work out their longer term survival strategy. Community
organisations based in the Thailand border area deliver various
forms of assistance to such displaced groups; including emergency
food assistance, health assistance through mobile services and
some assistance to support community schools. Such assistance
is delivered in association with armed political organisations
from Myanmar/Burma on which they rely for security and logistical
support. Many of these organisations are also engaged in human
rights documentation and in advocacy work and in capacity-building
with a range of opposition groups. Much of the advocacy work of
such organisations is extremely hostile to the Myanmar/Burma authorities,
highly contentious and viewed by the authorities as enemy propaganda.
5.1.2 The main disadvantage of this mode of
providing assistance is that it is identified by the Myanmar/Burma
authorities with "supporting and legitimising" insurgency.
Indeed, because of the association of this kind of assistance
with armed insurgent groups, it is difficult to think of it as
politically neutral. Certainly it can be construed by the armed
insurgents as supporting their armed struggle and reflecting recognition
of the justice of their cause. It may reinforce the will of the
armed insurgents to continue the armed struggle and may be seen
by insurgent leaders as a means of generating political support
for the armed insurgency in the international community. Rather
than being politically neutral, such assistance tends to involuntarily
"partisanise" affected communities that may previously
have been trying to resist being identified with either side in
order to avoid involvement in a conflict. which is "not their
conflict". Certainly there is evidence that those assisted
in this way are likely to be identified by the authorities with
the insurgency and this may be part of the strategy of the insurgents
to generate support.
5.1.3 There is an entirely different form of
disadvantage associated with cross-border assistance to IDPs from
Thailand in areas of the border in proximity to refugee camps
and the assistance and services provided in refugee camps. It
is highly likely that those involved in the provision of assistance
to the IDPs are from the same organisations providing assistance
to refugees or are in some other way likely to project norms for
assistance from the refugee camp situation to the situation of
IDPs. In short, they may be led to project the advisability of
establishing camps or camp-like situations as facilitating systematic
provision of services and thereby promoting expectations in the
IDP population with regard to level of assistance that can or
should be provided, perhaps the desirability of crossing the border
in order to access assistance and services that are provided for
their compatriots in the refugee camps.
5.1.4 Despite the disadvantages, it is still
the case that this form of assistance is the only way that assistance
can be provided to certain groups displaced by armed conflict.
Because of the disadvantages, this kind of assistance is most
appropriately limited to such situations where no other form of
assistance is possible or to areas which are securely controlled
(and protected) by those armed organisations through ceasefire
agreements or through de facto control. If it extends into Government-
controlled areas, the risks to both assistance personnel and recipients
are greater, because it is seen as partisan. It may have highly
counter-productive effects for recipients if known by the authorities.
5.2 Assistance from inside the country
5.2.1 The main advantage of assistance provided
by community organisations inside the country is that it can be
undertaken by community organisations that are recognised by the
authorities as having a legitimate role to play in these communities.
They are organisations which, as an integral part of the affected
communities, will provide assistance of a kind which is designed
to activate and complement the affected community's own "coping
mechanism", not generate a dependency syndrome.
5.2.2 This is especially true for health and
education assistance, where additional assistance reinforces local
efforts and mechanisms to provide access to health care and education
services that are provided by or recognised by the authorities
and acceptable to the authorities. There is therefore a vast potential
for expansion of such assistance so that it reaches wider target
areas, ie assists more communities to help themselves. This also
builds potential (in the long term) for engagement with the authorities
about best ways to provide appropriate health and education services
for these communities. It is to be hoped that such programmes
might lead eventually to engagement with the authorities about
abusive practices occurring in non-conflict situations that cause
continuing displacement or that further debilitate communities
affected by displacement.
5.2.3 The main disadvantage of this form of
assistance is that it has a limited potential to reach those directly
affected by armed conflict, especially those who have been displaced
to the east towards the Thailand border, due to restrictions on
access maintained by the Myanmar/Burma authorities. Where people
have been displaced due to armed conflict and have moved westwards,
they can be accessed by community based organisations but still
only with great caution. Given the prevailing attitude of the
authorities, groups providing assistance to those displaced by
armed conflict must do so in a very low profile manner because
of the risk of being seen by the authorities as sympathising with
the armed groups or even covertly providing assistance to the
armed groups.
6. THE IMPACT
OF DFID'S
POLICIES TOWARDS
BURMA'S
IDPS
6.1 DFID policy, to seek to address the problems
of IDPs from inside the country, has been implemented through
DFID support for UNDP's HDI (Human Development Initiative) activities
and the expansion of HDI, beginning in mid 2004, to reach out
to poor and vulnerable populations in areas previously unserved
by the HDI, including those in Karen, Kayah and Mon States ie
areas that are affected by conflict and displacement. (UNDP works
in Myanmar/Burma under a restricted mandate that requires it to
direct its assistance to programmes having grassroots impact for
all the peoples of Myanmar/Burma, and to do this, UNDP has instituted
a set of projects collectively known as the Human Development
Initiative (HDI)).
6.2 Through its support for UNDP HDI, DFID support
has expanded the capacity of the UN in Myanmar/Burma with regard
to the collection and analysis of data on vulnerable groups in
society and extended this to include groups that are vulnerable
because situated in areas that are subject to conflict and displacement.
6.3 DFID support has also made possible UN support
for community based organisations inside Myanmar/Burma to explore
and expand a wide range of activities focussed on displacement.
This has included collection of data by community organisations,
training of community organisation staff with regard to collection
and analysis of data, regular information sharing meetings, collective
prioritisation of needs and the implementation of assistance and
development projects by community organisations in communities
affected by conflict and displacement. It has also brought community
organisations into dialogue with international organisations allowing
for improved understanding of the situation of Myanmar/Burma in
relation to the international community and of various local perspectives
on the situation on the part of international agencies.
6.4 This process of exploration and expansion
helps create new ways of thinking in old community organisations,
new networking activities among them and is also leading to the
establishment of new community groups oriented to working with
various communities with regard to issues identified by the community
to be addressed by the community in accordance with the views
of the community. It also strengthens the leverage of international
organisations seeking to engage with the authorities on humanitarian
issues with regard to greater access and support for affected
populations.
7. HOW DIFFERENT
ETHNIC GROUPS
ARE AFFECTED
BY DISPLACEMENT
7.1 Displacement, armed conflict, ethnicity and
religion
7.1.1 Since the focus of the inquiry is specifically
displacement in the eastern border area (although forced displacement
occurs in other areas of Burma also), it is possible to say that
the eastern border areas affected are ethnic minority areas, and
that it is therefore ethnic minorities that are most affected.
It must be emphasised, however, that the displacement is associated
with government counter-insurgency actions, which of course are
directed at areas of insurgency, and although not always the case,
(referring to the past extensive communist insurgency) it is true
to say that in the current situation armed insurgency and government
counter-insurgency are mainly associated with ethnic minorities
and especially ethnic minority border areas. Some of the ethnic
minorities include substantial Christian communities. However,
again it is necessary to emphasise that although Christian ethnic
minority communities are often the victims of forcible displacement,
this is so because they are the communities in proximity to insurgency
and counter-insurgency, not because they are Christian per se.
7.1.2 It has been noted that not all displacement
is related directly to armed conflict, however, the point has
been made that displacement in these areas not directly related
to armed conflict still stems from the history of armed conflict
in these areas and the habits of the Myanmar/Burma armed forces
adopted during the armed-conflict and extended to other activities.
The current differences in the situation of the different ethnic
groups and ethnic areas reflects the differences in the political
situation of the different ethnic minority groups especially with
regard to the state of the insurgency.
7.2 Mon
7.2.1 Although there was in the past a sizeable
number of Mon in refugee camps in Thailand, since the 1995 ceasefire,
most have returned to Burma. Because of the ceasefire between
the main Mon insurgent group, NMSP, there is little displacement
due to armed conflict, though it still occurs in some places due
to activity of other armed groups in proximity to Mon communities.
(There are occasional actions by armed Mon splinter groups and
armed KNU groups or groups calling themselves KNU) Occasionally
Mon communities are targeted for government reprisals because
of the activities of those armed groups in proximity to them.
7.2.2 The Mon are currently affected by displacement
related to the expansion of the army's military infrastructure
especially the expansion of coastal artillery battalion bases
and the land needed to support those bases.
7.2.3 The Mon are also much affected by displacement
due to land seizure for the expansion of commercial agriculture,
especially plantation ventures initiated or supported by the government.
7.3 Karen and Karenni
7.3.1 The Karen (and ethnically related, but
politically distinct Karenni) make up the main ethnic groups in
refugee camps in Thailand. Efforts to secure ceasefire agreements
between the KNU and KNPP have been unsuccessful in both cases,
with no agreement being reached in the case of the KNU and with
an agreement that quickly broke down in the case of the KNPP.
The Karen and Karenni are substantially affected by displacement,
directly due to armed conflict and, as for the Mon, due also to
expansion of military infrastructure and due to development, including
moves to construct very large dams on the Salween River.
7.3.2 Recent reports of displacement connected
with armed conflict have been largely focussed on the north of
Kayin State and the east of Bago Division adjacent to Kayin State,
where opportunistic armed attacks on government and military targets
by KNU groups have provoked brutal reprisals, including forced
displacement, against the local Karen population. These incidents,
the attacks, the reprisals and the displacement have been highly
publicised on the internet by certain cross-border relief groups
and subsequently by the press. Some of those displaced have moved
eastwards towards the Thai border and away from areas under government
control, some have moved westwards towards towns and other villages
which are clearly under government control. Assistance has been
provided in this case both from across the border and from inside
the country. Nevetheless, despite these recent armed clashes,
(made more complicated by clashes involving ethnic political groups
(sometimes recent breakaway groups from the main political organisations)
that have ceasefires with the government, Karen and Karenni areas
in the eastern border area have been mainly militarily quiet,
with most problems associated with displacement caused by abusive
forms of development and sometimes disputes over development,
eg access to logging areas.
7.3.3 The ethnic communities of the eastern
Shan State also are also still affected by armed conflict, though
many ceasefires involving the different armed political groups
have been achieved. Again, as with the Mon, Karen and Karenni,
most areas are more significantly affected by development-related
displacement, currently, rather displacement directly related
to armed conflict (massive relocation having been conducted as
past of government counter-insurgency measures.
8. THE LIKELY
TRENDS IN
THE REGION
IN TERMS
OF DISPLACEMENT,
AND DEVELOPMENT
AND HUMANITARIAN
NEEDS
8.1 Downward trend in armed conflict
8.1.1 There is a downward trend in armed conflict
in Myanmar/Burma, but there is no reason to believe that there
will be any rapid resolution of the conflict between the government
and those armed groups that have not yet made ceasefires and,
in the absence of an overall political re-structuring of a kind
that resolves long-standing ethnic grievances, there is a continuing
risk of ceasefire breakdown. However, displacement directly due
to armed conflict is likely to continue to occur in local "episodes',
and is not expected to escalate or to become widespread.
8.1.2 That having been said, there is also no
prospect of a demilitarisation of the eastern border areas and
with very large numbers of government troops "in occupation"
and large numbers of weapons in the community, a high level of
abusive behaviour towards the local population by those holding
arms is likely to continue.
8.1.3 With the downward trend in armed conflict,
people who have been displaced increasingly seek to explore the
possibilities for resuming normal lives either in places they
have lived before or areas that seem to offer hopes for better
living. It is at that time that the danger from landmines becomes
even greater as people move to areas which were abandoned or which
they are unfamiliar with.
8.2 Increasing development-related displacement
8.2.1 Displacement is likely to increase throughout
the border area in association with government-initiated development
and commercial development in association with locally powerful
(meaning armed) groups. This is an area where a comprehensive
peace settlement and political reconstruction is sorely needed.
It is an area that has seen its isolated local subsistence economies
devastated by decades of armed conflict and an opening up to commercial
development brought about by the changing needs of competing armed
groups. Without a comprehensive peace, local populations are likely
to be severely handicapped in a race for economic opportunities
open to all with resulting marginalisation.
8.2.2 This is already a highly economically
and socially dislocated area with large segments of the population
on the move in search of better opportunities. It is an area that
is subject to a massive spontaneous migration to Thailand and
other nearby countries far outweighing the movement to refugee
camps and conflict-related internal displacement. This outwards
population movement is accompanied increasingly by an inwards
migration of job and opportunity seekers from other impoverished
rural areas of central Myanmar/Burma.
8.2.3 Re increasing danger from landmines, see
above 8.1.3. Unfortunately, with landmines technology widely disseminated
and access to both manufactured and home-made landmines, it appears
that landmines are also used for the purposes of defending commercial
interests when they are no longer needed for purposes of armed
conflict.
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