Memorandum by Dr Alan Smith
SUMMARY
1. Background
Forced displacement is common in Myanmar/Burma,
related to armed conflict associated with insurgency and counter-insurgency and
in other areas related to infrastructure and economic developments which require
access to land. This does not happen only in ethnic areas, and is not
restricted to rural areas, but it is of greatest extent and significance in
ethnic rural areas.
2. The particular needs of IDPs in Myanmar/Burma
Responses to the particular needs of IDPs in
Burma/Myanmar should reflect the UN Guiding Principles which focus on
protection, health and livelihood and education needs.
3. The challenges faced in delivering aid and
assistance to IDPs
The most significant
challenge is how to provide protection against displacement and continuing
protection from abuse after displacement has occurred.
There is a lack of easily accessible health treatment
centres (either because too remote or too expensive) and lack of health
education and awareness. Livelihood issues are the most difficult to address
and, on the one hand there are clearly situations where newly displaced people
are desperately in need of food assistance, on the other hand, there is
community consensus that it is security against economic abuse, which is the
key to economic security.
The most serious challenge regarding education is
lack of access, sometimes due to remoteness of the nearest school, but most
often it is economic reasons. Community organisations therefore focus on
expanding access, though there is awareness also of the need to improve the
quality of education available by providing better school materials and teacher
training.
4. How donors can assist IDPs in Myanmar/Burma most
effectively?
It is faith-based organisations and ethnic
organisations in Myanmar that are the most actively engaged in providing
assistance to communities affected by displacement, armed-conflict-related and
otherwise. Donors can best assist IDPs in Myanmar/Burma by supporting and
strengthening the work of community-based organisations, either directly or in
collaboration with international organisations which work in cooperation with
community-based organisations. Donors can also actively engage in the search
for more effective forms of advocacy on behalf of the displaced, for ending
displacement and other forms of abuse, and for expanding humanitarian access to
armed conflict-affected areas both from inside the country and across the
border. Donors can also support efforts by communities and community
organisations inside Myanmar/Burma to articulate needs as they see them, rather
than to be spoken for by exiles and political organisations outside the
country.
5. The advantages and disadvantages of cross-border
assistance compared to other ways of assisting IDPs in Myanmar/Burma
The main advantage of cross-border
assistance is that it can access IDPs who have been displaced from armed
conflict situations and who have fled towards the border or into hiding in
mountainous and forested areas not accessible from inside the country. The main disadvantage of this mode of
providing assistance is that it is identified by the Myanmar authorities with
'supporting and legitimising' insurgency.
Despite the disadvantages,
it is still the case that this form of assistance is the only way that
assistance can be provided to certain groups displaced by armed conflict.
However, if it extends into Government-controlled areas, the risks to both
assistance personnel and recipients are greater, because it is seen as partisan.
The main advantage of assistance
provided by community organisations inside the country is that it can be
undertaken by community organisations that are recognised by the authorities as
having a legitimate role to play in these communities. They are organisations
which, as an integral part of the affected communities, will provide assistance
of a kind which is designed to activate and complement the affected
community's own 'coping mechanism', not
generate a dependency syndrome.
The main disadvantage of this form of assistance is
that it has a limited potential to reach those directly affected by armed
conflict, especially those who have been displaced to the east towards the
Thailand border, due to restrictions on access maintained by the Myanmar/Burma
authorities.
6. The impact of DFID's policies towards
Myanmar/Burma's IDPs
DFID support has made
possible UN support for community based organisations inside Myanmar to explore
and expand a wide range of activities focussed on displacement. This has included collection of data by
community organisations, training of community organisation staff with regard
to collection and analysis of data, regular information sharing meetings,
collective prioritisation of needs and the implementation of assistance and
development projects by community organisations in communities affected by
conflict and displacement.
7. How different ethnic groups are affected by
displacement
Since the focus of the
inquiry is specifically displacement in the eastern border area (although
forced displacement occurs in other areas of Burma also), it is possible to say
that the eastern border areas affected are ethnic minority areas, and that it
is therefore ethnic minorities that are most affected. Some of the ethnic
minorities include substantial Christian communities. However, again it is
necessary to emphasise that although Christian ethnic minority communities are
often the victims of forcible displacement, this is so because they are the
communities in proximity to insurgency and counter-insurgency, not because they
are Christian per se.
8. The likely trends in the region in terms of
displacement, and development and humanitarian needs.
There is a downward trend
in armed conflict in Myanmar/Burma, but there is no reason to believe that
there will be any rapid resolution of the conflict between the government and
those armed groups that have not yet made ceasefires. Displacement directly due
to armed conflict is likely to continue to occur in local 'episodes', and is
not expected to escalate or to become widespread. There is also no prospect of
a demilitarisation of the eastern border areas and with very large numbers of
government troops 'in occupation' and large numbers of weapons in the
community, a high level of abusive behaviour towards the local population by
those holding arms is likely to continue.
Displacement is likely to
increase throughout the border area in association with government-initiated
development and commercial development in association with locally powerful
(meaning armed) groups. This is an area where a comprehensive peace settlement
and political reconstruction is sorely needed. Without a comprehensive peace,
local populations are likely to be severely handicapped in a race for economic
opportunities open to all with resulting marginalisation.
1 Background perspective:
internal displacement in Myanmar/Burma
1.1 The abuse of the rights of civilians in
areas of armed conflict in Myanmar/Burma, mainly ethnic areas, including forced
relocation, has been well-documented. Clearly there is a need for protection of
the civilian population of areas caught up in armed conflict, protection from
arbitrary displacement, protection after displacement where the conflict has
made displacement unavoidable, and for assistance during displacement and
eventual reintegration into the community.
1.2 The International Committee of the Red Cross
(ICRC), which is charged with responsibility for the protection of civilian
populations in situations of conflict under the Geneva Conventions to
which Myanmar/Burma is signatory, has
enjoyed some access to conflict areas in Myanmar/Burma until recently for this
purpose, but has recently been denied access.
1.3 Other international organizations
including the UN have repeatedly sought access to displaced or vulnerable
populations in conflict areas for the purpose of independently assessing the
humanitarian situation, with little success to date. The Myanmar/Burma
authorities currently provide no assistance to those displaced by armed
conflict other than on some occasions to indicate a preferred area of
relocation.
1.4 In the absence of cooperation from the Myanmar/Burma
government and armed forces, the burden of responsibility for providing
assistance to the displaced within Myanmar/Burma has fallen on communities
themselves and community organisations working within them.
1.5 For those displaced from areas of armed conflict close to the border of
Thailand, the burden of responsibility for providing assistance to the
displaced has fallen on relief operations from outside the country operating
across the border from Thailand.
1.6 For those displaced in situations other than
armed conflict, responsibility for assistance also currently must be accepted
solely by communities themselves and community organisations working within
them.
1.7 Displacement in situations other than
armed conflict, normally occurs in areas that are securely under the control of
the Myanmar/Burma authorities and are unlikely to be accessible to relief
operations from across the border.
1.8 Forced displacement without appropriate
compensation occurs in post-conflict situations where land is required for military infrastructure and where the
surrounding land is required to make military bases self-supporting.
1.9 Forced displacement without appropriate
compensation also occurs everywhere in the country, where in the interests of
national development, the authorities seek to create or expand infrastructure.
Undoubtedly this is necessary and frequently, if not always, an advantage to
the local population as well as the authorities. However, civilian populations
are usually called on to provide labour and/or materials, all too often without
fair or even any payment.
1.10 Forced displacement without appropriate
compensation appears also to occur from land that is required for the
establishment of commercial plantations and other economic enterprises. This
does not happen only in ethnic areas, and is not restricted to rural areas, but
it is of greatest extent and significance in ethnic areas where development projects
are fostered by the military as part of its occupation of previous conflict
areas
2 The particular needs of
IDPs in Myanmar/Burma.
2.1 Guiding
Principles
2.1.1 In addressing the issues framed by this inquiry, we are guided by
the normative framework for the internally displaced provided by the UN Guiding
Principles on Internal Displacement. To quote the words of distinguished, one
time UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, Mr. Sergio Vieira de
Mello,
These
Principles, which are based upon existing international humanitarian law and
human rights instruments, are to serve as an international standard to guide
governments as well as international humanitarian and development agencies in
providing assistance and protection to IDPs.
2.2 Needs
2.2.1 For IDPs, as for refugees, there is a primary need for safety and,
after that, access to what is needed for everyday survival and on-going life,
including access to health care, education and livelihood.
2.2.2 Protection
According to Principle 6, safety
begins with protection against arbitrary displacement:
Every
human being shall have the right to be protected against being arbitrarily
displaced from his or her home or place of habitual residence.
According to Principle 7,
1.
Prior to any decision requiring the displacement of persons, the authorities
concerned shall ensure that all feasible alternatives are explored in order to
avoid displacement altogether. Where no alternatives exist, all measures shall
be taken to minimize displacement and its adverse effects.
2.
The authorities undertaking such displacement shall ensure, to the greatest
practicable extent, that proper accommodation is provided to the displaced
persons, that such displacements are effected in satisfactory conditions of
safety, nutrition, health and hygiene, and that members of the same family are
not separated.
3. If
displacement occurs in situations other than during the emergency stages of
armed conflicts and disasters, the following guarantees shall be complied with:
(a)
A specific decision shall be taken by a State authority empowered by law to
order such measures;
(b)
Adequate measures shall be taken to guarantee to those to be displaced full
information on the reasons and procedures for their displacement and, where
applicable, on compensation and relocation;
(c)
The free and informed consent of those to be displaced shall be sought;
(d)
The authorities concerned shall endeavour to involve those affected,
particularly women, in the planning and management of their relocation;
(e)
Law enforcement measures, where required, shall be carried out by competent
legal authorities; and
(f)
The right to an effective remedy, including the review of such decisions by
appropriate judicial authorities, shall be respected.
2.2.3 Health
care and livelihood
According to Principle 18,
At the minimum, regardless of the
circumstances, and without discrimination, competent authorities shall provide
internally displaced persons with and ensure safe access to:
(a)
Essential food and potable water;
(b)
Basic shelter and housing;
(c)
Appropriate clothing; and
(d)
Essential medical services and sanitation.
2.2.4 Education
According to principle 23,
the authorities concerned shall ensure
that...in particular displaced children, receive education which shall be free
and compulsory at the primary level. Education should respect their cultural
identity, language and religion.
3 The challenges faced in
delivering aid and assistance to IDPs.
3.1 Protection
3.1.1 The most significant challenge to be faced by those concerned for
the welfare of communities subject to forcible displacement is how to provide
protection against displacement and continuing protection from abuse after
displacement has occurred.
3.1.2 Humanitarian advocacy aims at protecting civilians from, or
alleviating the impacts of, abuse - and falls under two broad categories:
denunciation and persuasion. Both have been applied, the former, continuously
by organisations working from outside the country, the latter repeatedly by
international organisations working inside the country, including the UN, when
the opportunity arises. Yet acute protection needs continue.
3.1.3 It is standard practice for international agencies to prioritize
the most urgent humanitarian needs - which, as in the case of Myanmar/Burma,
will often include protection issues. One of the greatest challenges facing
international agencies in Myanmar/Burma is therefore how to design programmes
that achieve a balance between assistance interventions and protection
concerns. International agencies in Myanmar/Burma have established a
'protective presence' and some studies have indicated that where assistance
access is possible, protection can also often be enhanced. Where access is
denied, as in the case of areas of active armed conflict, of course, neither
assistance or protection can be provided directly by international agencies.
For this reason, it is strategically essential to expand the humanitarian
agenda in Myanmar/Burma in order to expand the possibilities of both assistance
and protection.
3.1.4 Where access is restricted for international agencies, as is
currently the case in Myanmar/Burma, the international community can and must
assist community organisations develop the capacity and the will to provide a
protective presence while providing assistance.
3.1.5 However, while international agencies are severely
constrained by lack of access, community organisations are constrained by lack
of resources, material resources and trained human resources.
3.2 Land-mines
3.2.1 All of the communities in the eastern border area, as well as many
other areas throughout Myanmar/Burma, are affected by the danger of widespread,
often unsystematic, deployment of landmines both by the government's armed
forces and armed opposition groups during times of armed conflict and in
defence of established bases and camps, to deny access to abandoned settlements
and to defend resettlement sites.
3.3 Health
care and livelihood
3.3.1 Discussions among community organisations and with
international organisations reveal a widespread consensus on the health
priorities on communities affected by displacement. Clearly many communities
lack easily accessible health treatment centres (either because too remote or
too expensive) and lack health
education and awareness. The significant disease challenges are malaria and HIV
Aids. Community organisations therefore need resources for health awareness
training in local languages, training to expand the capacity of local health
workers, training and equipping mobile teams, provision of medical supplies and
education about the need for safe water and sanitation as well as resources for
securing access to safe water and sanitation.
3.3.2 Livelihood issues are the most difficult to address in
communities affected by displacement. On the one hand, there are clearly
situations where newly displaced people are desperately in need of food
assistance. On the other hand, there is community consensus that it is security
against economic abuse, which is the key to economic security, rather than
either emergency assistance or economic development assistance. They refer to
security against 'being deprived of
land and property by people in power' and security against being forced to
provide labour for the government and the army with little or no compensation,
plus security against forced and arbitrary taxation and looting' by armed groups associated with both
government and anti-government groups.
3.4 Education
3.4.1 For communities affected by displacement, in both armed-conflict
areas and others, the most serious challenge is to provide universal access to
basic education. Lack of access is sometimes due to remoteness of the nearest
school, but most often it is the inability or unwillingness of parents to have
their children attend school because they cannot afford it, or because the
children are needed to assist with the family livelihood. Community
organisations therefore focus on expanding access, though there is awareness
also of the need to improve the quality of education available by providing
better school materials and teacher training.
4 How donors can assist IDPs
in Myanmar/Burma most effectively?
4.1 It is faith-based organisations and ethnic
organisations in ceasefire areas in Myanmar/Burma that are the most actively
engaged in providing assistance to communities affected by displacement,
armed-conflict-related and otherwise.
4.2 Ethnic political organisations are able
to protect their communities against displacement only in areas they control on
the basis of their ceasefire agreement with the government. They report having
attempted, unsuccessfully to advocate on behalf of communities outside their
areas of control affected by continuing forced displacement and other abuses at
the hands of the authorities, in post-conflict situations.
4.3 Faith-based organisations, while
reluctant to advocate at the national level on behalf of the displaced or
communities affected by displacement, are aware of the 'protective presence'
that their traditional 'pastoral care' role affords to the local community, as
well as providing the necessary access to provide material assistance.
4.4 Donors can best assist IDPs in
Myanmar/Burma by supporting and strengthening the work of community-based
organisations, either directly or in collaboration with international
organisations which work in cooperation with community-based organisations.
4.5 Donors can also actively engage in the
search, with international organisations working in Myanmar/Burma and community
organisations, for more effective forms of advocacy on behalf of the displaced,
for ending displacement and other forms of abuse, and for expanding
humanitarian access to armed conflict-affected areas both from inside the
country and across the border.
4.6 Donors can also support efforts by
communities and community organisations inside Myanmar/Burma to articulate
needs as they see them, rather than to be spoken for by exiles and political
organisations outside the country.
4.7 Donors can also assist IDPs in
Myanmar/Burma by providing resources and training with regard to design and
delivery of effective community health and education programmes. Most urgently
needed is assistance to ethnic political and community organisations providing
school and health systems alongside those provided by the government of
Myanmar/Burma and either explicitly or tacitly tolerated by the Myanmar/Burma authorities.
Examples are the extensive education and health services provided in ceasefire
areas (with explicit agreement of the authorities but without access to
government resources) by ethnic political organisations with ceasefire
agreements.
4.8 Donors can also assist by providing
opportunities for community organisations active in displacement-affected areas
to be brought into the world of discussion and debate about best practice with
regard to health awareness education, community health promotion as well as
local treatment and referral systems for dealing with illnesses,
student-centred teacher training, as
well as policy debates about appropriate health and education policies for
multi-ethnic countries.
4.9 Donors can assist by supporting
landmines-awareness programmes, by drawing all sides into discussion about the
desirability of banning use of landmines and by attempting to start land-mine
clearance operations where and when appropriate. It is a very expensive,
technically difficult and time-consuming task to clear land-mines.
5 The
advantages and disadvantages of cross-border assistance compared to other ways
of assisting IDPs in Myanmar/Burma.
5.1 Cross-border
assistance
5.1.1 The main advantage of cross-border assistance is that it can
access IDPs who have been displaced from armed conflict situations and who have
fled towards the border or into hiding in mountainous and forested areas not
accessible from inside the country.
Since IDPs in that situation have fled into sparsely populated areas,
they may be in very great need of emergency assistance while they work out
their longer term survival strategy. Community organisations based in the
Thailand border area deliver various forms of assistance to such displaced
groups; including emergency food assistance, health assistance through mobile
services and some assistance to support community schools. Such assistance is
delivered in association with armed political organisations from Myanmar/Burma
on which they rely for security and logistical support. Many of these
organisations are also engaged in human rights documentation and in advocacy
work and in capacity-building with a range of opposition groups. Much of the
advocacy work of such organisations is extremely hostile to the Myanmar/Burma
authorities, highly contentious and viewed by the authorities as enemy
propaganda.
5.1.2 The main disadvantage of this mode of providing assistance is that
it is identified by the Myanmar/Burma authorities with 'supporting and
legitimising' insurgency. Indeed, because of the association of this kind of
assistance with armed insurgent groups, it is difficult to think of it as
politically neutral. Certainly it can be construed by the armed insurgents as
supporting their armed struggle and reflecting recognition of the justice of
their cause. It may reinforce the will of the armed insurgents to continue the
armed struggle and may be seen by insurgent leaders as a means of generating
political support for the armed insurgency in the international community. Rather than being politically neutral, such
assistance tends to involuntarily 'partisanise' affected communities that may
previously have been trying to resist being identified with either side in
order to avoid involvement in a conflict. which is 'not their conflict'.
Certainly there is evidence that those assisted in this way are likely to be
identified by the authorities with the insurgency and this may be part of the
strategy of the insurgents to generate support.
5.1.3 There is an entirely different form of disadvantage associated
with cross-border assistance to IDPs from Thailand in areas of the border in
proximity to refugee camps and the assistance and services provided in refugee
camps. It is highly likely that those involved in the provision of assistance
to the IDPs are from the same organisations providing assistance to refugees or
are in some other way likely to project norms for assistance from the refugee
camp situation to the situation of IDPs. In short, they may be led to project
the advisability of establishing camps or camp-like situations as facilitating
systematic provision of services and thereby promoting expectations in the IDP
population with regard to level of assistance that can or should be provided,
perhaps the desirability of crossing the border in order to access assistance
and services that are provided for their compatriots in the refugee camps.
5.1.4 Despite the disadvantages, it is still the case that this
form of assistance is the only way that assistance can be provided to certain
groups displaced by armed conflict. Because of the disadvantages, this kind of
assistance is most appropriately limited to such situations where no other form
of assistance is possible or to areas which are securely controlled (and
protected) by those armed organisations through ceasefire agreements or through
de facto control. If it extends into Government- controlled areas, the risks to
both assistance personnel and recipients are greater, because it is seen as
partisan. It may have highly counter-productive
effects for recipients if known by the authorities.
5.2 Assistance
from inside the country
5.2.1 The main advantage of assistance provided by community
organisations inside the country is that it can be undertaken by community
organisations that are recognised by the authorities as having a legitimate
role to play in these communities. They are organisations which, as an integral
part of the affected communities, will provide assistance of a kind which is
designed to activate and complement the affected community's own 'coping mechanism', not generate a
dependency syndrome.
5.2.2 This is especially true for health and education assistance, where
additional assistance reinforces local efforts and mechanisms to provide access
to health care and education services that are provided by or recognised by the
authorities and acceptable to the authorities.
There is therefore a vast potential for expansion of such assistance so
that it reaches wider target areas, ie assists more communities to help
themselves. This also builds potential (in the long term) for engagement with
the authorities about best ways to provide appropriate health and education
services for these communities. It is to be hoped that such programmes might
lead eventually to engagement with the authorities about abusive practices occurring
in non-conflict situations that cause continuing displacement or that further
debilitate communities affected by displacement.
5.2.3 The main disadvantage of this form of assistance is that it has a
limited potential to reach those directly affected by armed conflict,
especially those who have been displaced to the east towards the Thailand
border, due to restrictions on access maintained by the Myanmar/Burma
authorities. Where people have been displaced due to armed conflict and have
moved westwards, they can be accessed by community based organisations but
still only with great caution. Given the prevailing attitude of the
authorities, groups providing assistance to those displaced by armed conflict
must do so in a very low profile manner because of the risk of being seen by
the authorities as sympathising with the armed groups or even covertly
providing assistance to the armed groups.
6 The impact of DFID's
policies towards Burma's IDPs
6.1 DFID policy, to seek to address the
problems of IDPs from inside the country,
has been implemented through DFID support for UNDP's HDI (Human
Development Initiative) activities and the expansion of HDI, beginning in mid
2004, to reach out to poor and vulnerable populations in areas previously
unserved by the HDI, including those in Karen, Kayah and Mon States ie areas
that are affected by conflict and displacement. (UNDP works in Myanmar/Burma
under a restricted mandate that requires it to direct its assistance to
programmes having grassroots impact for all the peoples of Myanmar/Burma, and
to do this, UNDP has instituted a set of projects collectively known as the
Human Development Initiative (HDI)).
6.2 Through its support for UNDP HDI, DFID
support has expanded the capacity of the UN in Myanmar/Burma with regard to the
collection and analysis of data on vulnerable groups in society and extended
this to include groups that are vulnerable because situated in areas that are
subject to conflict and displacement.
6.3 DFID support has also made possible UN
support for community based organisations inside Myanmar/Burma to explore and
expand a wide range of activities focussed on displacement. This has included collection of data by
community organisations, training of community organisation staff with regard
to collection and analysis of data, regular information sharing meetings,
collective prioritisation of needs and the implementation of assistance and development projects by
community organisations in communities affected by conflict and displacement.
It has also brought community organisations into dialogue with international
organisations allowing for improved understanding of the situation of Myanmar/Burma
in relation to the international community and of various local perspectives on
the situation on the part of international agencies.
6.4 This process of exploration and expansion
helps create new ways of thinking in old community organisations, new
networking activities among them and is also leading to the establishment of
new community groups oriented to working with various communities with regard
to issues identified by the community to be addressed by the community in
accordance with the views of the community. It also strengthens the leverage of
international organisations seeking to engage with the authorities on humanitarian
issues with regard to greater access and support for affected populations.
7 How different ethnic groups
are affected by displacement
7.1 Displacement,
armed conflict, ethnicity and religion
7.1.1 Since the focus of the inquiry is specifically displacement in the
eastern border area (although forced displacement occurs in other areas of
Burma also), it is possible to say that the eastern border areas affected are
ethnic minority areas, and that it is therefore ethnic minorities that are most
affected. It must be emphasised, however, that the displacement is associated
with government counter-insurgency actions, which of course are directed at
areas of insurgency, and although not always the case, (referring to the past
extensive communist insurgency) it is true to say that in the current situation
armed insurgency and government counter-insurgency are mainly associated with
ethnic minorities and especially ethnic minority border areas. Some of the
ethnic minorities include substantial Christian communities. However, again it
is necessary to emphasise that although Christian ethnic minority communities
are often the victims of forcible displacement, this is so because they are the
communities in proximity to insurgency and counter-insurgency, not because they
are Christian per se.
7.1.2 It has been noted that not all displacement is related directly to
armed conflict, however, the point has been made that displacement in these
areas not directly related to armed conflict still stems from the history of
armed conflict in these areas and the habits of the Myanmar/Burma armed forces
adopted during the armed-conflict and extended to other activities. The current
differences in the situation of the different ethnic groups and ethnic areas
reflects the differences in the political situation of the different ethnic
minority groups especially with regard to the state of the insurgency.
7.2 Mon
7.2.1 Although there was in the past a sizeable number of Mon
in refugee camps in Thailand, since the 1995 ceasefire, most have returned to
Burma. Because of the ceasefire between the main Mon insurgent group, NMSP,
there is little displacement due to armed conflict, though it still occurs in
some places due to activity of other armed groups in proximity to Mon
communities. (There are occasional actions by armed Mon splinter groups and armed KNU groups or groups calling
themselves KNU) Occasionally Mon communities are targeted for government
reprisals because of the activities of those armed groups in proximity to them.
7.2.2 The Mon are currently affected by displacement related to the
expansion of the army's military infrastructure especially the expansion of coastal artillery battalion
bases and the land needed to support those bases.
7.2.3 The Mon are also much affected by displacement due to land seizure
for the expansion of commercial agriculture, especially plantation ventures
initiated or supported by the government.
7.3 Karen
and Karenni
7.3.1 The Karen (and ethnically related, but politically distinct
Karenni) make up the main ethnic groups in refugee camps in Thailand. Efforts to secure ceasefire agreements
between the KNU and KNPP have been unsuccessful in both cases, with no
agreement being reached in the case of the KNU and with an agreement that
quickly broke down in the case of the KNPP. The Karen and Karenni are
substantially affected by displacement, directly due to armed conflict and, as
for the Mon, due also to expansion of military infrastructure and due to
development, including moves to construct very large dams on the Salween River.
7.3.2 Recent reports of displacement connected with armed
conflict have been largely focussed on the north of Kayin State and the east of
Bago Division adjacent to Kayin State, where opportunistic armed attacks on
government and military targets by KNU groups have provoked brutal reprisals,
including forced displacement, against the local Karen population. These
incidents, the attacks, the reprisals and the displacement have been highly
publicised on the internet by certain cross-border relief groups and
subsequently by the press. Some of those displaced have moved eastwards towards
the Thai border and away from areas under government control, some have moved
westwards towards towns and other villages which are clearly under government
control. Assistance has been provided in this case both from across the border
and from inside the country. Nevetheless, despite these recent armed clashes,
(made more complicated by clashes involving ethnic political groups (sometimes
recent breakaway groups from the main political organisations) that have
ceasefires with the government, Karen and Karenni areas in the eastern border
area have been mainly militarily quiet, with most problems associated with
displacement caused by abusive forms of development and sometimes disputes over
development, eg access to logging areas.
7.3.3 The ethnic communities of the eastern Shan State also are also
still affected by armed conflict, though many ceasefires involving the
different armed political groups have been achieved. Again, as with the Mon,
Karen and Karenni, most areas are more significantly affected by
development-related displacement, currently, rather displacement directly
related to armed conflict (massive relocation having been conducted as past of
government counter-insurgency measures.
8 The likely trends in the
region in terms of displacement, and development and humanitarian needs.
8.1 Downward
trend in armed conflict
8.1.1 There is a downward trend in armed conflict in Myanmar/Burma, but
there is no reason to believe that there will be any rapid resolution of the
conflict between the government and those armed groups that have not yet made
ceasefires and, in the absence of an overall political re-structuring of a kind
that resolves long-standing ethnic grievances, there is a continuing risk of
ceasefire breakdown. However, displacement directly due to armed conflict is
likely to continue to occur in local 'episodes', and is not expected to
escalate or to become widespread.
8.1.2 That having been said, there is also no prospect of a
demilitarisation of the eastern border areas and with very large numbers of
government troops 'in occupation' and large numbers of weapons in the
community, a high level of abusive behaviour towards the local population by
those holding arms is likely to continue.
8.1.3 With the downward trend in armed conflict, people who have been
displaced increasingly seek to explore the possibilities for resuming normal
lives either in places they have lived before or areas that seem to offer hopes
for better living. It is at that time that the danger from landmines becomes
even greater as people move to areas which were abandoned or which they
are unfamiliar with.
8.2 Increasing
development-related displacement
8.2.1 Displacement is likely to increase throughout the border
area in association with government-initiated development and commercial
development in association with locally powerful (meaning armed) groups. This
is an area where a comprehensive peace settlement and political reconstruction
is sorely needed. It is an area that has seen its isolated local subsistence
economies devastated by decades of armed conflict and an opening up to
commercial development brought about by the changing needs of competing armed
groups. Without a comprehensive peace, local populations are likely to be
severely handicapped in a race for economic opportunities open to all with
resulting marginalisation.
8.2.2 This is already a highly economically and socially dislocated area
with large segments of the population on the move in search of better
opportunities. It is an area that is subject to a massive spontaneous migration
to Thailand and other nearby countries far outweighing the movement to refugee
camps and conflict-related internal displacement. This outwards population
movement is accompanied increasingly by an inwards migration of job and
opportunity seekers from other impoverished rural areas of central Myanmar/Burma.
8.2.3 Re increasing danger from landmines, see above 8.1.3.
Unfortunately, with landmines technology widely disseminated and access to both
manufactured and home-made landmines, it appears that landmines are also used
for the purposes of defending commercial interests when they are no longer
needed for purposes of armed conflict.
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