1 Frequency of deployments and overstretch
1. In April 2007 the total strength of the Armed
Forces was 3.2% below requirements which represented a shortfall
of 5,850 people. The Department did not achieve its aim of manning
balance[2] in all three
Services by the end of 2005. Its confidence that it will achieve
manning balance by its target date of 2008[3]
appears optimistic in the light of the most recent manning figures.
In the year to April 2007 the overall personnel shortfall increased
from 5,170 to 5,850 and none of the three Services was within
manning balance.[4] The
overall figures also mask significant shortfalls in many of the
operational pinch point trades, which will take longer to recover.[5]
2. Deployments on overseas operations and time away
from home are factors causing people to leave the Armed Forces.[6]
Statistics of personnel leaving early for 2006-07 show that voluntary
outflow rates for Army and Royal Air Force Officers, and for Royal
Air Force Other Ranks are at a ten year peak. "Voluntary
outflow" rates have remained at the same level or increased
since April 2006.[7] Overall,
the numbers of Officers and Other Ranks leaving early have
increased slightly in the last two years.
3. The Department accepts that current operations,
especially those in Iraq and Afghanistan, are placing a strain
on personnel, particularly in the pinch point trades, such as
vehicle mechanics, armourers and nurses. However, it does not
agree that this factor is leading to an increase in people leaving
early. The numbers of personnel leaving early have gone up slightly
over the last two years but the Department believes that voluntary
outflow has remained remarkably steady over the last ten years
and that the long-term trends are fairly stable.[8]
4. In a survey of pinch point trade personnel by
the National Audit Office, frequency of deployments contributed
to two of the top three reasons for people leaving. 70% of those
intending to leave and 53% of those who had left said that their
inability to plan ahead in life outside work was an important
factor in their decision to leave. 64% and 49% of the same groups
said that the impact of service life on family life was important.[9]
The Department acknowledges that inability to plan ahead is a
key reason for personnel leaving. The frequency of deployments,
with the subsequent impact on family life, also influence retention,
although the Department pointed out that separation from families
and the desire to pursue a career in civilian life have always
been factors in decisions to leave. The Department agrees it needs
to be alert to the possibility that there may be an upward trend
in departures if current pressures continue.[10]
Army Manning
Navy and RAF Manning
5. More people leaving the Armed Forces in turn increases
the pressures on those who stay. The Department's harmony guidelines[11]
on the amount of time away from home are consistently being broken.
Currently around 15% of the Army are away more than is planned
for and for some trades the figure is a third or more. 4 to 6%
of Royal Air Force personnel have exceeded the guidelines in every
year since 1998, against a guideline of 2.5%. Although the Royal
Navy is meeting its harmony guideline targets, ships have sailed
with an average level of "gapped" frontline posts of
12%.[12]
6. The Department has achieved 98% of its recruitment
targets for the Armed Forces over the last five years. In the
first six months of 2006-07 the Department had already met 52%
of its recruitment targets for the whole year compared to 47%
at the equivalent point in 2005-06. In October 2005 there were
significant recruitment shortfalls in the Infantry (17%) and Artillery
(27%), and recruitment to these areas has improved in 2006-07
with applications up by 36 and 42% respectively.[13]
Although recruitment targets are linked to the overall size of
the Armed Forces, which has fallen in recent years, the Department
does not accept that the targets are easier to meet. Targets have
not been met in the harder-to-recruit pinch point trades.
7. Deployments overseas have been more frequent because
the Department has been operating above Defence Planning Assumptions
for several years and manning levels have not kept pace with commitments.[14]
Defence Planning Assumptions are assumptions about operations
which are made to build up the structure of the Armed Forces and
used to assign forces to military tasks. Decisions about whether
the Armed Forces can undertake operations above the Assumptions
are matter of military judgement.[15]
The Department intends to review Defence Planning Assumptions
and the funding of the Armed Forces in the light of the demands
placed on them, as part of the next Comprehensive Spending Review.
8. The Department's consistent stated position is
that the Armed Forces are significantly stretched by the combination
of operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, but that they
are not overstretched, as they are continuing to do all that is
asked of them.[16] The
Armed Forces would be overstretched if they could not fulfil their
current military commitments.[17]
There are nevertheless indications of overstretch for some areas,
particularly some specialist trades, where there are severe shortages
of personnel and harmony guidelines are being routinely broken.
In some medical trades, for example, the Department has to rely
on significant numbers of Reserve Forces, as well as private sector
contractors, to meet its commitments.[18]
2 Manning balance is the prevailing trained strength
requirement within a tolerance band of plus 1% or minus 2% to
reflect structural and organisational change within the Services. Back
3
Q 6 Back
4
Source: Ministry of Defence-Defence Analytical Services Agency
TSP04 Quarterly Press Release, April 2007. Back
5
C&AG's Report, paragraphs 1.13 to 1.18 Back
6
Q 3 Back
7
Source: Ministry of Defence: Defence Analytical Services Agency
TSP05, April 2007 Back
8
Qq 3-5 Back
9
C&AG's Report, Figure 6, para 2.13 Back
10
Q 3, Q 5, Q 7, Q 32 Back
11
Each service has set harmony guidelines on the amount of time
personnel spend away to ensure that Service personnel and their
families have a sustainable balance between time away and time
at home. Royal Navy: No individual should exceed 660 days of separated
service in any three year period. Army: Individuals should not
exceed 415 days of separated service in any period of 30 months.
Royal Air Force: No more than 2.5% of personnel should serve more
than 140 days of detached duty in any period of 12 months. There
are separate guidelines for unit tour intervals for each Service. Back
12
C&AG's Report, para 2.16 Back
13
Q 30, Q 33 Back
14
C&AG's Report, para 1.5 Back
15
Q 29, Q 39 Back
16
Q 3, Q 29 Back
17
Q 38 Back
18
C&AG's Report, para 1.21 Back
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