Memorandum 101
Supplementary submission from UKspace
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SATELLITE MONITORING
A GLOBAL HEALTH
CHECK FOR
PLANET EARTH
This supplementary submission is offered by
UKspace to address what it perceived as a gap in the evidence
to the Inquiry on the subject of climate change and the critical
role satellites play, and the role of UK space policy in helping
to build a long-term, truly global monitoring system.
Summary
Climate Change has never enjoyed a higher media
or political profile in the UK. The Climate Change Bill proposes
a legally binding framework that will bring efforts to tackle
climate change into every home and business in the country. However,
efforts to reduce national and global carbon footprints also point
to an urgent need for a stepchange in our approach to environmental
monitoring. Without a global, long-term monitoring system, the
UK's new climate change targets will not be effectively policed
and their impact will not be fully known.
The importance of Environmental Monitoring
Our understanding of climate change rests on
our understanding of many critical components in our global ecosystem,
and how they interact to cause changes in global climate. While
the science community is now settled on the reality of global
change, we still do not know how these key "tipping points"
will change, and when. These key indicators (see image)
include desertification in sub-Saharan Africa, deforestation and
droughts in the Amazon, changes in the ozone layer, the Greenland
ice sheet, salinity valves in the world's oceans, methane emissions
from the defrosting Siberian tundra, etc.
The importance of environmental monitoring is
well recognised. The Chancellor has spoken about the need for
"having the best observation system and information on how
the climate will change". April 2006, Mozambique The
Stern Review highlighted the need for continued "high quality
climate information" to monitor the effects of mitigation
and to guide adaptation strategies. Sir David King, the Government's
chief scientist, has recently said: "There is no doubt that
satellites, often designed and built in the UK, play a critical
role in evaluating man's impact on the environment". And
both the 2005 G8 Summit (Gleneagles Communiqué 2005, Action
Plan, Para 34) and the Prime Minister's Natural Hazards Working
Group highlight the continued importance of earth observation
in tackling climate change and natural disasters.
The role of satellites in monitoring climate change
Satellites are the best way of monitoring gradual
change on a global scale. Specifically, satellites are often the
best, and sometimes the only way of monitoring the most important
environmental "tipping points" linked to climate change.
In addition, much environmental monitoring is gradually shifting
from local, land-based monitoring to global monitoring from space
to provide global and continuous monitoring that simply is not
available from the ground. Examples of satellite based monitoring
include:
Tracking CO2 from forest fires
Rising temperatures are causing more forest
fires, already the cause of 25% of all CO2 emissions. Temperatures
in Siberia, home to half the carbon in the world's forests, rose
by 3 degrees in the last 40 years. Every year, 3.5 million hectares
go up in flames in central Siberia alone. Mediterranean Europe
loses another 0.5 million hectares and Africa loses almost the
entire savannah south of the rainforests annually. Satellites
can pinpoint active fires and their smoke plumes and precisely
measure their impact by tracking "burn scars" visible
from orbit. Satellites including the European Space Agency's Envisat
and the UK built Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC) are enabling
UK scientists at NERC to calculate how much carbon is released
into the atmosphere every year by forest fires and improving response
efforts.
Improving predictions of hurricanes
Climate change scientists have long predicted
more frequent and more extreme hurricanes due to rising sea-surface
temperatures. Hurricanes can occur when temperatures exceed 26
degrees, and a 0.5 degree rise in temperatures produces a 3% increase
in wind speed. 2005 was the most active and violent year for tropical
storms in the Atlantic since records began in the 19th century.
Sea-surface temperatures are being monitored
by the AATSR instrument, designed and built by Astrium in the
UK, on board the environmental satellite Envisat. Scientists at
Leicester University use this data to create the most comprehensive
map of the world's sea surface temperatures.
Monitoring our oceans
Sea levels are predicted to rise by up to 90
centimetres this century. 13 of the world's 15 largest cities
are on the coast, and 300 million people live less than 1 metre
above sea level. Europe's Envisat satellite is providing data
on sea levels that are accurate to within a few millimetres.
Climate models suggest major ocean currents
will change. NERC's £20 million Rapid Climate Change Programme
is using satellite data to help monitor the North Atlantic's most
important current—the Atlantic Conveyor Belt.
Scientists estimate that Arctic sea ice could
disappear in summer months by 2060. Without this white coat, planet
Earth will absorb more heat. The UK-led Cryosat II satellite will
measure ice sheet and sea ice thickness in unprecedented detail.
The Way Ahead—a Global Health Check for
Planet Earth
Currently, monitoring requirements are driven
by immediate policy needs and environmental and humanitarian crises.
This piecemeal, reactive approach has resulted in many gaps and
gaps in the continuity of key datasets. However, there is an increasing
recognition of the need for a comprehensive, long-term global
environmental monitoring system.
Internationally, the need for the global solution
is recognised through GEOSS—to which the UK was politically
committed at Gleneagles. The European component of GEOSS is called
GMES—Global Monitoring for Environment and Security—which
will ensure long-term provision of environmental information,
in particular, addressing climate change needs.
What does this mean for the UK?
There are strategic, economic and social benefits
arising from participation in GMES. Economically, PWC estimates
that socio-economic benefits to Europe and the UK from GMES are
estimated at approximately €90 billion over 25 years with
80% attributable to climate change. In terms of the environmental
and policy benefits, full UK participation will ensure the system
properly meets climate change needs and allows UK climate change
scientists to help shape the global monitoring system.
International cooperation provides the only
affordable way of monitoring our global climate. As the Stern
Review warns, nations must avoid the temptation of "free
riding" in the hope that other nations will shoulder the
burden. GMES is the only global monitoring system in town.
GMES—The Next Steps
The decision point for the next Phase of the
ESA-led space infrastructure programme will be made in September
2007. The eventual success of the programme relies on full participation
of all major European partners, especially for the UK in the area
of atmospheric monitoring which is crucial to understanding climate
change.
March 2007
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