Select Committee on Trade and Industry Minutes of Evidence


APPENDIX 10

Memorandum submitted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI)

1.  INTRODUCTION

  1.1  The CBI is the UK's leading business organisation, speaking for some 240,000 businesses that together employ around a third of the private sector workforce.

  1.2  This paper has been prepared in response to the House of Commons Trade and Industry Committee inquiries under the general theme of "The future of manufacturing industry in the UK". The paper is structured around the three individual inquiries chosen by the Committee:

    —  Marketing UK plc: The work of UK Trade and Investment in supporting exporters and encouraging inward investment. In particular, the new UKTI strategy and its impact on the achievement of UKTI's Public Service Agreement.

    —  Public procurement: The scope for government support for UK industry.

    —  Skills shortages: the extent to which such shortages are hindering the development of manufacturing industry; what skills are needed, the effectiveness of the dialogue between industry and education/training providers, including the role of the Sector Skills Councils; and co-ordination of provision within Government.

2.  CURRENT STATE OF MANUFACTURING

Current trends in manufacturing

  2.1  Recent industrial and economic surveys have suggested that 2006 has so far witnessed a fragile recovery in the UK manufacturing sector, after a difficult year in 2005. Increased demand, driven primarily by export growth, has led to positive trends in output and improved confidence. The sustainability of the recovery is undermined by consistently escalating energy and materials prices.

  2.2  The CBI's Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey is recognised as the leading survey of manufacturing activity. The most recent results published in July 2006 revealed a continued improvement in fortunes for the sector:

    —  The July and April surveys together represented a sharp improvement in demand conditions, although total new orders remained unchanged in the three months to July. A slight fall in domestic orders was compensated by a rise in export orders, which grew by more than expected. Manufacturers expect exports to increase in coming months, which if achieved will be the fastest rate of increase since 1995.

    —  Output growth remained modest and was slower than expected. Manufacturers anticipate this modest increase to continue in the third quarter.

    —  Costs continued to rise, albeit at a slower rate than the previous three surveys. Domestic output prices remained unchanged despite previous predictions of a strong rise, indicating that manufacturers are struggling to pass costs on to customers.

    —  Employment continued to fall but the rate of job loss has returned to below the long-term average. This is expected to continue in the coming months.

Role of manufacturing in the economy

  2.3  The output of the manufacturing sector (measured in Gross Value Added) stood at £148 billion in 2005, compared to £116 billion in 1990, an increase of 27%. During the same period service sector output grew by 155% from £321 billion to £812 billion.

  2.4  Therefore manufacturing as a proportion of the total economy has declined, despite absolute growth in manufacturing output. In 1990 manufacturing accounted for 23% of the UK economy, in 2005 it accounted for only 14%.



Source: ONS

  2.5  Manufacturing employment (measured in workforce jobs) in March 2006 was 3.3 million. This is a significant decline on the 1980 level of 6.8 million. Decline in manufacturing employment has been steady, and mainly attributed to firms making underlying productivity improvements. Recently the trend has been exacerbated by high input prices and increased pressure on profit margins.

  2.6  Since 1980 total UK employment has risen from 27 million to over 30 million. The proportion of the working population employed in manufacturing has declined significantly, from 25% in 1980 to 11% in 2005.



Source: ONS

  2.7  Manufacturing remains vital to the UK's balance of trade, as international trade is still dominated by trade in goods. Manufactured goods comprise 82% of the total value of exported goods. In terms of total trade, manufactured goods comprise 54% of all UK exports of goods and services.

  2.8  Further information on the export performance of the UK manufacturing sector can be found in Section 4.



Source: ONS

  2.9  It is widely accepted that the UK suffers a productivity shortfall when compared to our leading competitors. The magnitude of the productivity gap varies depending on the statistical measure employed, but historically the UK has performed poorly by all metrics. Since 1997, HM Treasury has made it a priority to raise productivity levels to close the gap with our competitors.

  2.10  According to recent data published by the DTI, there has been good progress in closing the productivity gap. Measured in terms of GDP per worker the gap with France has halved and the gap with Germany has been closed. In terms of GDP per hour worked, the gaps have also narrowed significantly.



Source: DTI Economics Paper 17 UK Productivity and Competitiveness Indicators

  2.11  The productivity gap between UK manufacturing and the manufacturing sectors of France, Germany and the US is estimated to be wider than the productivity gap at an economy-wide level.

  2.12  However, manufacturing has made significant productivity improvements, and is a driver of productivity growth in the overall economy. As shown below, manufacturing productivity rose by 58% between 1990 and 2005 compared with 35% for the economy as a whole.



Source: ONS

3.  MARKETING UK PLC

  3.1  The international presence of manufacturing, and of UK plc in general, is crucial for the success of the UK economy. Globalisation will continue to open up new markets and break down geographical and political barriers, while emerging markets will grow in size and importance. The UK manufacturing sector must look outwards and compete in export markets for sustained success to be possible.

  3.2  The marketing of UK plc will become increasingly important. Building relationships with customers, suppliers and partners will be vital for multinational manufacturers to effectively manage global supply chains. This applies to their established markets, centres of low cost competition, and tomorrow's emerging economies.

  3.3  Building international relationships for companies, and UK industry in general, includes inward investment, outward investment and international trade. All three aspects are vital to provide sufficient demand, improve competitiveness and realise the benefits presented by the opportunities of globalisation. The required focus on each aspect varies depending on the nature of the companies or sectors in question, and their role in the global marketplace.

  3.4  A prerequisite to marketing UK plc is a multilateral trade system underpinned by the WTO. The DTI's role in the European Commission in respect of bilateral and multilateral trade and investment negotiation should not be forgotten.

  3.5  Industry needs a champion for their international trade and investment interests at the heart of government. They also need an organisation to provide tailored and relevant support for companies, encourage foreign investment into the UK and facilitate UK companies' international activities.

  3.6  This role is occupied by UK Trade & Investment (UKTI), which aims to:

    "enhance the competitiveness of companies in the UK through overseas trade and investments; and attract a continuing high level of quality foreign direct investment"

International Trade

  3.7  International trade is the lifeblood of UK manufacturing. The few UK companies not directly operating in export markets will be involved through the supply chain. For many multinational manufacturers and industry sectors, export markets form a major proportion of their business. Crucially, the fragile recovery of the manufacturing sector during 2006 has been built mainly on export growth.

  3.8  There is evidence that export activity is linked to improvements in productivity, both at aggregate level and the level of individual companies[30]. Entry into export markets often leads to company growth, productivity improvements and acts as a valuable source of market intelligence or technical knowledge.

  3.9  In 2005 the total value of manufactured goods exported was £174 billion, compared to £82.4 billion in 1990, an increase of 110%. In the same time frame, the total value of exports has increased by 140%. Service sector exports are growing more rapidly than manufacturing exports, but are still of significantly lower value.



Source: ONS

  3.10  However, there are concerns that the UK is not best placed to take advantage of the trends in globalisation. Exports of manufactured goods are still heavily focused on the EU and North America, with only 2% of UK exports going to India and China combined. CBI members have expressed concern that the UK is in danger of falling behind our competitor countries in exploiting the export opportunities of growth in emerging markets.

Inward Investment

  3.11  Inward investment brings enormous benefits to the UK economy, not least in manufacturing. Investment projects add to UK capacity, provide an influx of capital and create and secure jobs. In addition, inward investment has a positive effect on the competitiveness of UK industry.

  3.12  Multinational manufacturers are often leaders in best practice, for example lean manufacturing, new technology and management techniques. Inward investment often results in knowledge spillovers—the transfer of best practice to suppliers and UK industry as a whole.

  3.13  Statistics for 2004-05 suggest record inward investment figures with 1,220 new projects creating over 34,000 new jobs and securing a further 56,000 jobs[31]. The manufacturing sector accounted for a quarter of new projects and new jobs, and three quarters of the total number of secured jobs.

  3.14  However it is important that the UK maintains its attractiveness to foreign investors. Those companies investing in the UK will not hesitate to re-locate abroad if there are greater savings or process improvements available. Future investment going to other countries at the expense of the UK would have profoundly damaging effects on the capabilities and the competitiveness of UK industry.

  3.15  Value chains in manufacturing are becoming more fragmented, and multinationals are increasingly flexible regarding the location of their business functions. Production, R&D and design capabilities will be located where they are most commercially viable. These decisions are based on a number of issues including cost, quality, delivery, skilled labour, regulatory environments and government incentives.

UK Trade & Investment—Prosperity in a changing world

  3.16  UKTI published their new strategy "Prosperity in a changing world", in July 2006. The strategy sets out the direction for UKTI over the next five years, with a particular focus on improving the marketing of the UK and supporting business in emerging markets.

  3.17  The remit of UKTI is inclusive of all companies within the UK and therefore includes all sectors of the economy, not only manufacturing. Particular emphasis in the Strategy is placed on the promotion of the City of London and ensuring it retains its leading role in financial markets. The CBI agrees with the necessity of this focus, and supportive of efforts to achieve these goals. However, due to the nature of this inquiry we shall forthwith restrict comments to the implications of the work of UKTI on the manufacturing sector.

  3.18  It should also be recognised that the CBI has been a long-term advocate of the need for export support and the marketing of UK plc, and also a supporter of the role of UKTI. The CBI has made significant input into the UKTI strategy through a close working relationship during the drafting process.

  3.19  Great emphasis remains on delivery against the new UKTI strategy. As such it is currently too early to judge whether the new strategy will assist UKTI in achieving its Public Service Agreement target. However, there are a number of concerns from industry that must be addressed, regarding the overall goals, approach and performance of UKTI.

Attitude towards globalisation

  3.20  The approach to globalisation has previously been to mitigate the threats from growing economies such as China and India. What has been lacking is an appropriate focus on the benefits of globalisation, and the opportunities provided by the growth of emerging economies.

  3.21  The success of UK manufacturing in future will be dependent on our approach to globalisation, ensuring the UK is well positioned to take full advantage of current and future trends. The flexibility in manufacturing value chains as outlined above allows companies to tap into the benefits of low cost economies, either through offshoring elements of their business or outsourcing the production process in part or entirely.

  3.22  The development of emerging markets represents a huge opportunity for UK companies. The consumer classes of India and China are growing rapidly. Strengthening links with these countries, while remaining vigilant for new global players, is key to turning globalisation from a threat to an opportunity for UK companies.

Relationship between exports and inward investment

  3.23  CBI members believe that UKTI has been overly focused on inward investment as opposed to encouraging and supporting UK firms to export. The CBI has welcomed the new strategy in that it rebalances the focus of UKTI back towards supporting export success.

  3.24  Encouraging export activity, particularly with a focus on the emerging markets, is key to enabling UK industry to exploit the opportunities of globalisation. There is a strong financial justification for an emphasis on export activity, the UKTI strategy cites evidence of a £17 million return on every £1 million spent on trade development.

  3.25  Such an emphasis on exports requires UKTI to provide support for new-to-export companies and facilitate the activities of experienced exporters. A set of clear metrics is required on which to measure the success of UKTI in encouraging export activity.

Effectiveness of UKTI support

  3.26  The experience of some manufacturing companies highlights a two-fold problem in UKTI's delivery of support. Firstly, few companies have had any contact with UKTI, and secondly the bureaucracy involved in obtaining support heavily outweighed the benefits.

  3.27  The perception of manufacturers is that UKTI as an organisation has been excessively preoccupied by meeting its targets, at the expense of providing support that is accessible, relevant and helpful. As a result there is at least one example of a parallel initiative being established to fulfil trade development functions in the food and drink industry.

The Role of the RDAs

  3.28  The responsibility for encouraging and facilitating inward investment is shared among several government departments, the Regional Development Agencies (RDAs) and the devolved administrations. Each region of the UK runs parallel initiatives to encourage inward investment within their boundaries.

  3.29  This approach leads to considerable overlap and competition between the regions, and seriously undermines the effectiveness of marketing of the UK to foreign investors. There is a clear and urgent need to review the role of the RDAs in encouraging inward investment.

4.  PUBLIC PROCUREMENT

  4.1  The public procurement budget stands at around £125 billion a year in the UK. The public sector is an important customer for UK manufacturing, and there is significant potential for intelligent procurement practices to benefit industry. Public procurement can be leveraged to encourage business investment and innovation, which would boost business competitiveness and set the seed for long term economic growth.

  4.2  Leveraging procurement in this way requires changes in the procurement process and the culture and professionalism of procuring departments. In general, the CBI calls for the following:

    —  Creating and sustaining competitive supply markets

    —  Early dialogue between clients and suppliers

    —  More work up-front on specifications before tender

    —  Ongoing partnering relationships

    —  Output based specifications.

  4.3  There appears to be a lack of forecasting ability in predicting future procurement needs. Successful medium term procurement planning is necessary to enable certain industries in the UK that are dependent on the public sector for the bulk of their orders to plan ahead. Should government purchasing swing unpredictably "between feast and famine', it is beyond the ability of some industries to sustain themselves during protracted periods of low demand.

  4.4  Crucially, a relatively small number of suppliers to the public sector can support entire supply chains. In some sectors, for example in the rail transport industry, these few suppliers are directly and significantly affected by public procurement decisions.

Procuring Innovation

  4.5  The government can play a major part in underpinning and facilitating innovation in business. Much of the focus to date has been on addressing specific market failures such as under investment in research and development, for example via the R&D tax credit. Some of the benefits of R&D expenditure spill-over beyond the investing company, and the R&D tax credit helps to offset this external benefit that the company cannot fully capture.

  4.6  Increasingly, CBI members believe that the innovation push effect of direct support measures should be reinforced with innovation pull factors. Public procurement is the largest overall pull factor that the government could effectively influence. A focus within public procurement on acquiring innovative products, services and processes would be a major driver for business investment in innovation.

  4.7  The CBI has identified that "current procurement practices not only fail to foster business innovation, but also fail to allow government to maximise long-term value from its investments"[32]. Survey data revealed that nearly 80% of respondents thought the government failed to support innovation by acting as an early adopter of new ideas.

  4.8  The CBI has been exploring this issue further and will be launching a detailed report on the topic in mid-October, which will be forwarded to the Committee once it is released. An area that the report focuses on is how to provide a more effective link between research and procurement in the UK. It considers ways of accelerating the development of ideas into new technology and on into appropriate procurement rounds. If this could be achieved then it should be beneficial for public services and for the UK economy as a whole.

Value for Money

  4.9  The concept of "value for money" on which procurement decisions must be based, includes other dimensions other than simply price. Quality is a key factor, for example in the procurement of food for the education or prison systems. Procurement decisions must be based on whole-life value for money, based on assessment of the costs associated with the products throughout its entire life span.

  4.10  There has also been significant pressure to increase the use of social clauses in public sector contracts. Social clauses, or social requirements, are a means of including social or environmental requirements in public sector contracts that would not conventionally be considered as defined outcomes. The inclusion of social clauses is often designed to deliver on the social or environmental policy objectives of the procuring party.

  4.11  Those manufacturers supplying to non-public organisations are experiencing a greater focus on corporate social responsibility, in addition to the common procurement criteria of quality, cost and delivery. There is a balance point where these considerations are relevant and appropriate to public contracts as well as private contracts.

  4.12  For example the concept of carbon footprints and the aim of becoming "carbon neutral" is important to many organisations. This is likely to also become an important factor in public procurement, as paying higher prices for local goods would be justified due to the savings in carbon emissions from reduced environmental impact from logistics.

  4.13  The CBI is concerned that while social clauses may be effective in delivering on social or environmental policy objectives, there is scarce evidence of social clauses benefiting business. The inclusion of social clauses in public procurement contracts is likely to increase the levels of bureaucracy involved in tendering for contracts, and therefore discourage companies, particularly SMEs, from bidding.

5.  SKILLS SHORTAGES

  5.1  Achieving and maintaining appropriate levels of workforce skills is a crucial determinant of competitiveness within manufacturing. In order to remain competitive in the face of growing global competition, manufacturing companies are required to make continuous productivity improvements and successfully innovate with respect to products and processes.

  5.2  To succeed in both of these aims it is necessary to have a workforce with the necessary mix of skills and the ability to be flexible in order to adapt to changing processes. The necessary skills mix includes good levels of literacy and numeracy and basic employability skills, craft and technical skills, higher qualifications and management and leadership skills.

  5.3  As discussed in section 2, the UK exhibits a productivity gap with our primary competitors, namely the US, France and Germany. Research has identified the root causes of this productivity gap as physical capital, labour force skills and total factor productivity[33]. The variation in labour force skills was estimated to account for up to a fifth of the UK's productivity gap with France and Germany in 1999, although they were not significant in explaining the gap with the US.




Source: O'Mahony and de Boer, 2002

  5.4  The skills issue should not be considered in isolation. There are strong links between the shortages and the perception of manufacturing as a failing industry. The media coverage of manufacturing tends to imply there is little future in the sector, which removes the incentives for young people to take specialised qualifications, opt for engineering and technology subjects, or follow manufacturing career paths.

  5.5  The remaining evidence is structured around the twin aspects of the skills issue. The first aspect is the quality and availability of skills input into the manufacturing sector, and the extent to which shortages of relevant skills are hindering the development of manufacturing. Secondly, manufacturers provide vocational training to the existing workforce, for which the quality and co-ordination of training provision is important.

Skills Input

  5.6  There is evidence that the manufacturing sector is disproportionately affected by skills shortages in comparison to the economy as a whole. The incidence of skills-shortage vacancies (SSVs), those vacant posts hard to fill due to a lack of available skills in the labour market, is higher than average in the manufacturing sector[34].

  5.7  Larger manufacturers are able to engage with the education system at higher, further and secondary education levels, in order to provide encouragement and guidance for students and teachers in manufacturing and engineering disciplines. Such involvement enables larger manufacturers, to some extent, to specify their skills requirements and improve the flow of recruits into their business. Smaller manufacturers often lack the resources to take this approach.

  5.8  In the near future, industry's skills requirements will change significantly, both in the type of skills needed and the level of qualifications. The majority of businesses predict that their skills requirements will change over the next three years, and only 10% expect to need similar or lower skills levels[35].

  5.9  The government's ambition to increase industry's expenditure on research and development will generate greater demand for high level skills in science, engineering and technology. Demand from the manufacturing sector for relevant graduate qualifications is also likely to increase, given that manufacturers will increasingly focus on innovation and technology to achieve competitive advantage.

  5.10  The importance of management and leadership skills is likely to increase in the future. Many manufacturing companies are part of global networks and multinationals today manage increasingly complex supply chains. The capability to co-ordinate and optimise such organisations could prove to be a key source of competitive advantage for UK manufacturers.

Skills Profile

  5.11  Analysis of the UK's skills profile reveals a mix of strengths and weaknesses across skills levels. In comparison to France and Germany the UK skills profile is characterised by relatively high proportions of lower and higher skills, and a relatively low proportion of intermediate skills.



Source: DFES estimates from Labour Force Survey

  5.12  In 2005, 18% of the working age population possessed qualifications below level 2, excluding those with no skills. Below level 2 qualifications include less than five GCSE grades A*-C, BTEC general certificates, NVQ level 1, and Basic Skills qualifications. This proportion has declined marginally over recent years from 20% in 2000.

  5.13  Intermediate skills are defined as levels 2 and 3, including GCSE and A level passes or equivalent vocational qualifications, and trade apprenticeships. In 2005 the proportion of the UK working age population with intermediate skills stood at 42%, a marginal increase since 2000.

  5.14  In 2005, 26.8% of all people of working age were qualified at level 4 or higher, the equivalent of a first or higher degree and the highest vocational qualifications. This proportion has increased since 1999 from 23%. This proportion is relatively high compared to our European competitors, and approximately comparable to the US and Japan.

Basic Skills

  5.15  Evidence suggests that school leavers lack the basic employability skills. 42% of employers believe school leavers lack basic literacy and numeracy and approximately 20% of the workforce lack the numeracy and literacy skills expected of an 11-year old[36]. School leavers without the minimum levels of literacy and numeracy hinder productivity and add extra costs to business by way of remedial training. The impact on businesses and the economy as a whole is huge, it is estimated that low basic skills cost the economy £10 billion a year.

Intermediate Skills

  5.16  The proportion of intermediate level skills in the UK workforce is likely to be a significant cause of the productivity gap with our European competitor, as significantly larger proportions of France and Germany's workforce are qualified to intermediate level. However this shortfall may be due to other countries' greater success in turning competency into qualifications, rather than a lack of skills per se in the UK.

Higher Skills

  5.17  Industry is claiming an urgent need for more quality graduates in chemistry, physics, engineering and technology. Overall the numbers of science, engineering and technology graduates are increasing. In 2004 there were 2.1 million SET graduates in the UK working age population, an increase of 57% from the 1997 figure of 1.3 million. In the same time frame, non-SET degree graduates increased by 49%.



Source: DTI Economics Paper 16 Science, Engineering and Technology Skills in the UK March 2006

  5.18  However, a breakdown by subject of all new SET graduates reveals that this growth is due to increases in biology and computer science, which experienced growth in excess of 100%, and medicine and allied subjects, which increased by 89%. In contrast, physical science and engineering and technology fell by around 10%. Mathematical sciences increased by 33%.



Source: DTI Economics Paper 16 Science, Engineering and Technology Skills in the UK

  5.19  There is also an issue with quality, as there is evidence that some pharmaceutical companies make it policy to recruit abroad as UK chemistry graduates are not perceived to be sufficiently skilled.

Management Skills

  5.20  Management and leadership skills have often been overlooked in the skills debate. Effective management is vital for manufacturers strategic development and long term success, as well as necessary to get the most from the improvements in workforce skills.

  5.21  Research has proven that there is a strong correlation between good management practices and company performance, particularly in improving total factor productivity—the measure of productivity having already taken into account differences in labour and capital. Analysis from McKinsey[37] shows that the quality of management in the best UK companies is world class, yet there is a longer tail of UK firms displaying poor management practices.

Training Supply

  5.22  In 2005 the government spent £3 billion on adult skills. A further £161 million was spent on basic skills through the Train to Gain programme which targets adult workers without a Level 2 qualification. Results show that this approach is working—the use of "brokers" to identify skills needs, find the best training providers and put employers in touch with them has been successful.

  5.23  However despite the government's efforts, most employers find the supply of government funded training difficult to navigate and once found, relatively unresponsive and not tailored for their needs. Although there are some indications that matters are improving, the pace of change is slow and many employers are expressing strong dissatisfaction that the LSC-controlled structure introduced some 8 years ago still fails to match the service provided by Training and Enterprise Councils which were felt to be employer led.

  5.24  Specific evidence from manufacturing companies reveals that training provision within manufacturing is over complicated and discourages employer involvement, particularly from SMEs who are unlikely to have the resources to navigate the system. There is a desire from industry to rationalise and simplify the training infrastructure for manufacturing, to create a system that is streamlined, integrated, with high quality delivery aligned across all skill levels.

  5.25  CBI members have commented on the variable quality of further education colleges in providing workforce training. Many employers have encountered difficulties in sufficiently tailoring training courses to meet their needs.

  5.26  Industry is concerned over the efficacy of Sector Skills Councils in driving up the level of skills and training provision within sectors. Sector Skills Councils have arisen as a natural measure to deal with skills issues, but the quality of their delivery has been poor.

  5.27  Many companies in the industry sectors covered by SEMTA are looking to the forthcoming National Manufacturing Skills Academy to provide a more successful lead on skills issues. Such an Academy would provide an overarching structure for skills provision across the whole manufacturing sector and should play a role in simplifying the skills marketplace.

  5.28  A large proportion of skills requirements are generic across the manufacturing sector and actions should be taken to ensure that the NMSA, if established, should remain the sole academy serving the manufacturing sector with specialised divisions catering to individual sectors, should there be sufficient demand for these specialised skills.

September 2006






30   DTI Economics Paper 18 International Trade and Investment-the Economic Rationale for Government Support. Back

31   UK Trade & Investment, UK Inward Investment 2005-06. Back

32   CBI/QinetiQ Innovation Survey, 2005. Back

33   O'Mahony and de Boer (2002), "Britain's relative productivity performance: updates to 1999". Back

34   National Employers Skills Survey 2005. Back

35   CIPD, Annual Survey Report 2005, Training and Development. Back

36   CBI Employment Trends Survey, 2005. Back

37   McKinsey & Company, Management Matters, 2005. Back


 
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