Examination of Witnesses (Questions 80
- 91)
TUESDAY 7 NOVEMBER 2006
UKTI
Q80 Chairman: Let us take it away
from Argentina. What definition did you use to decide that Mexico
and Brazil were the two emerging markets in Latin America?
Mr Timmins: It was not a question
of deciding that those were the two in Latin America, it was a
question of looking at markets worldwide and determining which
ought to fall into the emerging markets' category and so we were
looking at a whole range of criteria and we were looking at the
demographics, at education and at growth in the economy. A whole
range of criteria was developed and then we looked at how each
of the markets, which in our terms were developing markets if
I can put it that way, was performing against the criteria and
out of that assessment we have developed a group of emerging markets
of which Mexico and Brazil are two, but there are 15 in total.
Q81 Rob Marris: When you say "demographics",
is the age of the population different in Argentina than it is
in Brazil, for example?
Mr Timmins: I am sorry, I have
not got at my fingertips the details in relation to Argentina
but we did look at a whole range of markets and, of course, there
are resource issues as well to take into account in determining
which markets we categorised as "emerging". Resources
are finite and have to be applied in the appropriate ways.
Chairman: Perhaps we could ask you to
give us a note of how you reached the decision to choose Mexico
and Brazil—I appreciate the broader international context—and
specifically, for example, why Chile was not on this because I
thought Chile was going great guns too.
Judy Mallaber: Also what makes something
an "emerging" market?
Chairman: Let us stick to the principles,
the definitions, the analysis, that were used to reach that conclusion.
Sorry, Mr Marris.
Q82 Rob Marris: In terms of what
UK companies can do, is it realistic to use Brazil and/or Argentina
as a base for Latin America, or is it too big and too diverse?
Coupled with that, do those countries' membership of Mercosur
assist to try and get a UK company to use that as a beachhead
into Latin America?
Mr Timmins: My own view is that
Brazil stands on its own.
Q83 Rob Marris: What about Argentina
as a kind of beachhead then for a UK company wishing to get involved
in Latin America or is that an inappropriate approach?
Mr Timmins: I have never viewed
Argentina in that way. It may well be because in recent times
Argentina has gone through a very difficult phase economically
and is now of course pulling out of that, but I have not seen
Argentina as providing that sort of focus for British companies
wishing to get into Latin America.
Q84 Rob Marris: Does any country,
or does it not work that way with 13 different markets in South
America?
Mr Timmins: It really does not
work that way. There is no single country that presents itself
in that way. All I would say is that in some respects for companies
that are thinking about Latin America Miami is a more logical
place to start because of the links and because of Miami's role
as an entrepôt with Latin America.
Rob Marris: Perhaps we should be visiting
there!
Q85 Mr Weir: China and India attach
great importance to engagement at governmental level and through
formal representative organisations, like confederations of industry
and chambers of commerce, in developing trade. Is the same true
in Latin America?
Mr Timmins: I think it varies
from country to country. It is certainly applicable in Brazil,
it is less applicable perhaps in Mexico, but I do not think one
can generalise.
Q86 Mr Berry: Could I ask what presence
in Brazil and Argentina the English RDAs and devolved administrations
have?
Mr Timmins: I am not aware that
the RDAs have any physical presence in either country.
Mr Berry: I am delighted with that reply
and that is me done, Chairman!
Rob Marris: What about the devolved administrations?
Q87 Mr Berry: The Welsh Assembly
and Scottish Parliament, do they have offices in Rio, Buenos Aires
or Miami?
Mr Timmins: I am not aware that
they do.
Q88 Chairman: This is likely to come
as a relief to the Committee. We will test it on our visit. That
was an easy question, so it falls to me to ask the last question
which is about international trade and Doha. We do not know what
is going to happen in the Round at present, there is a lot of
concern. To what extent would inter-regional EU-Mercosur deals
or bilateral deals, country to country deals, be able to deal
with some trade issues if the Doha Round collapses?
Mr Timmins: I think in many respects
that is a question for my colleagues in DTI's Europe and World
Trade directorate. I do not know whether you are seeing them.
Chairman: We saw great enthusiasm in
India for bilateral deals particularly; you saw that very clearly.
Are you aware of a similar enthusiasm in Latin America and Brazil
and Argentina specifically?
Q89 Rob Marris: Is Europe and world
trade not more or less your new job, director of developed markets?
Mr Timmins: No, my colleagues
in Europe and World Trade are responsible for issues around EU
policy.
Q90 Chairman: Is there an enthusiasm
for that alternative approach or the multilateral WTO approach?
Mr Hockney: When Alistair Darling
was out there, they were very keen on the multilateral approach.
Brazil has been our real friend in Latin America. They want a
reduction in the agricultural subsidies both in the States and
the EU so that their products can be sold out there; we want a
reduction on the industrial tariffs. The Brazilians have tried
to be the spokesperson for the whole of Latin America on this
in the Doha negotiations. I think President Lula has really tried
to take things forward on this, but at the moment I do not see
any real wish to go down a bilateral route. If we totally fail
on Doha, then who knows, especially with the new administration,
Lula might change his view.
Q91 Rob Marris: I want to clarify
that last answer from Mr Hockney. When you say "bilateral",
do you mean UK-Brazil or Mercosur-EU?
Mr Hockney: I was talking about
Brazil and the UK.
Chairman: In that case, unless there
is anything else you wish to say, that is the conclusion of this
session of the Committee, I am very grateful to you. I am glad
we got Mr Blackmore in with something on the record. Thank you
very much.
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